---
title: "WHITE WIDOW case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "WHITE WIDOW ($1.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.90% from 35 items with odds, observed 85.19% over 306K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [WHITE WIDOW](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · WHITE WIDOW

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 86.90% · EV $0.87 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.19% · 306K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 84.89% ±0.86 236K openings

30 days · 85.19% ±0.75 306K openings

since tracking started · 85.19% ±0.75 306K openings

83.5% 85.8% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.37% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.43% – 85.94%, 306,487 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow?window=7d) | 236K | 84.89% ±0.86 | −5.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow) | 306K | 85.19% ±0.75 | −5.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow?window=all) | 306K | 85.19% ±0.75 | −5.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 307K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33,333 | $347 | 1.2% | 4 | 9.2 | 0.43× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $71.94 | 0.6% | 19 | 21.5 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $42.12 | 0.5% | 35 | 30.7 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $20.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $16.49 | 0.2% | 0 | 30.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $14.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,500 | $14.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 24.6 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $14.24 | 0.3% | 0 | 61.4 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $10.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 61.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $9.67 | 0.2% | 0 | 61.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $8.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 30.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $7.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 61.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $6.33 | 0.1% | 0 | 61.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 625 | $6.20 | 1.1% | 0 | 491.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 455 | $4.31 | 1.1% | 0 | 675.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $3.81 | 1.8% | 1,186 | 1259.6 | 0.94× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $2.48 | 7.1% | 7,803 | 7680.3 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $2.33 | 7.1% | 7,923 | 8171.8 | 0.97× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.91 | 7.1% | 9,299 | 9984.4 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 31 | $1.91 | 7.1% | 10,129 | 9984.4 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.24 | 5.9% | 11,035 | 12780.0 | 0.86× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.24 | 5.9% | 12,858 | 12780.0 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.07 | 5.9% | 13,579 | 14838.3 | 0.92× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.03 | 5.9% | 14,770 | 15391.3 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 1 in 18 | $0.70 | 4.4% | 17,488 | 16804.5 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Rainbow Route (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route-holo) | 1 in 18 | $0.67 | 4.3% | 17,219 | 17019.5 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.58 | 3.9% | 17,260 | 18064.1 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.50 | 3.6% | 19,136 | 19139.3 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.49 | 3.6% | 19,346 | 19354.4 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.46 | 3.4% | 20,407 | 19999.5 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.46 | 3.4% | 20,700 | 19999.5 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.44 | 3.3% | 21,081 | 20214.5 | 1.04× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.44 | 3.3% | 20,676 | 20214.5 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.43 | 3.3% | 20,976 | 20398.9 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.38 | 3.1% | 23,120 | 21474.1 | 1.08× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/white-widow`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [bart](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/bart) $1.00 $350 350.4x 2026-11-03 01:22 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1.00 $337 336.6x 2026-11-03 19:25 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1.00 $337 336.6x 2026-11-09 12:07 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Kahpe\_Paps](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kahpe_Paps) $1.00 $335 334.9x 2026-11-06 17:23 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $76.47 76.47x 2026-11-05 10:11 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $75.63 75.63x 2026-11-04 10:20 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $75.63 75.63x 2026-11-03 22:06 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) [PRYTATA](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PRYTATA) $1.00 $75.63 75.63x 2026-11-03 21:04 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $75.63 75.63x 2026-11-03 20:04 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $75.20 75.20x 2026-11-07 20:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=white-widow)

[Sticker | High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) [Blank](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Blank) $1.00 $0.70 0.70x 2026-11-09 21:51 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [Blank](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Blank) $1.00 $0.44 0.44x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [Blank](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Blank) $1.00 $0.44 0.44x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [Aha](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Aha) $1.00 $0.44 0.44x 2026-11-09 21:20 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) [Aha](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Aha) $1.00 $1.91 1.91x 2026-11-09 21:19 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $1.24 1.24x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.43 0.43x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $1.24 1.24x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [TaSuKaMaRaKa\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/TaSuKaMaRaKa_) $1.00 $1.24 1.24x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [WundeBaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WundeBaa) $1.00 $0.43 0.43x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.00 | 86.90% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.00 | 86.82% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.00 | 86.56% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1.00 | 87.85% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.00 | 87.31% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1.00 | 86.86% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1.00 | 86.68% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.00 | 87.74% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $1.00 | 87.95% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1.00 | 87.85% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.00 | 87.31% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.00 | 87.94% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $1.00 | 88.22% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.00 | 87.73% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% Legendary 0.0% Mythical 0.0% pink 0.7% classified 0.0% violet 43.2% restricted 0.0% uncommon 0.2% blue 10.6% gray 31.4% #d32ce6 3.3% grey 5.0% #8847ff 5.5% best hit $350 (350.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.90 on average: an expected loss of $13.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt