---
title: "WILD WEST JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "WILD WEST JOKER ($80.80) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 91.73% over 717 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wild-west-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [WILD WEST JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wild-west-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · WILD WEST JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wild-west-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wild-west-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wild-west-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wild-west-joker?window=all)

Price · $80.80

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $70.70 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.73% · 717 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93 openings · below min

7 days · 92.60% ±18.86 506 openings

30 days · 91.73% ±15.76 717 openings

since tracking started · 91.73% ±15.76 717 openings

44.5% 89.0% 133.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wild-west-joker?window=24h) | 93 | 88.85% ±43.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wild-west-joker?window=7d) | 506 | 92.60% ±18.9 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wild-west-joker) | 717 | 91.73% ±15.8 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wild-west-joker?window=all) | 717 | 91.73% ±15.8 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 721 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $759 | 42.9% | 31 | 28.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $513 | 29.0% | 26 | 28.8 | 0.90× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $176 | 9.9% | 37 | 28.8 | 1.28× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $109 | 6.2% | 37 | 28.8 | 1.28× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $65.44 | 3.7% | 38 | 28.8 | 1.32× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $63.82 | 0.9% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $51.04 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $42.72 | 0.6% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $42.22 | 0.6% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $41.83 | 0.6% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $27.14 | 0.4% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $19.78 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $15.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $13.85 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $13.65 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $12.55 | 0.7% | 19 | 28.8 | 0.66× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $12.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $9.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $9.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $9.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $8.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $7.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $6.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $6.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $6.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $6.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $6.28 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $5.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $5.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $5.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $5.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $4.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $4.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $4.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $4.36 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $2.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $2.51 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $2.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $2.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $2.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.81 | 0.1% | 41 | 28.8 | 1.42× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.22 | 0.0% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 1 in 25 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 39 | 28.8 | 1.35× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 28 | 28.8 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 39 | 28.8 | 1.35× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 33 | 28.8 | 1.14× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 31 | 28.8 | 1.07× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.37 | 0.0% | 23 | 28.8 | 0.80× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/wild-west-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [tilo9o90](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/tilo9o90) $82.53 $772 9.36x 2026-11-05 19:51 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [Johnny SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Johnny%20SKINS) $82.48 $772 9.36x 2026-11-04 22:17 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $82.01 $767 9.35x 2026-11-06 10:33 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $82.01 $767 9.35x 2026-11-06 10:32 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $82.01 $767 9.35x 2026-11-06 10:32 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [PIELMENI](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PIELMENI) $82.01 $767 9.35x 2026-11-06 07:45 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $81.49 $765 9.39x 2026-11-08 22:22 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $81.49 $765 9.39x 2026-11-08 22:17 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $81.49 $765 9.39x 2026-11-08 22:17 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $81.49 $765 9.39x 2026-11-08 22:15 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=wild-west-joker)

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) Hidden $80.80 $12.55 0.16x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC

[AWP | Phobos weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos) Hidden $80.80 $3.82 0.05x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $80.80 $18.61 0.23x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | Monster Call weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call) [KuTaZskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KuTaZskins.army) $80.80 $2.31 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:44 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [kaCzoR\_kill4Fun](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kaCzoR_kill4Fun) $80.80 $759 9.39x 2026-11-11 21:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [Nissan Laurel C35cstorm.pl](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nissan%20Laurel%20C35cstorm.pl) $80.80 $6.32 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:41 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) Hidden $80.80 $0.40 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net) Hidden $80.80 $4.12 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $80.80 $65.44 0.81x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $80.80 $176 2.17x 2026-11-11 21:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $80.80 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $80.83 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $81.33 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $80.57 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $81.40 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $80.57 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $80.51 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $81.49 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $81.41 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $80.35 | 87.49% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $81.41 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $80.27 | 87.51% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $80.80 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $82.01 | 86.26% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $82.48 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $82.53 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $82.01 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $81.59 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $82.48 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $81.59 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $79.26 | 87.50% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 4.0% covert 19.0% classified 5.6% red 3.0% Ancient 1.0% #eb4b4b 1.0% Mythical 2.3% restricted 15.5% violet 25.0% Legendary 2.8% pink 0.8% #d32ee6 1.8% Classified 1.0% #8847ff 3.1% Restricted 2.0% blue 6.0% mil spec 2.0% gray 4.0% best hit $772 (9.36x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt