---
title: "WORKSHOP JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "WORKSHOP JOKER ($45.78) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.51% from 50 items with odds, observed 91.62% over 933 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [WORKSHOP JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · WORKSHOP JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop-joker?window=all)

Price · $45.78

Advertised RTP · 87.51% · EV $40.06 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.62% · 933 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 67.66% ±26.13 189 openings

7 days · 93.27% ±12.51 838 openings

30 days · 91.62% ±11.86 933 openings

since tracking started · 91.62% ±11.86 933 openings

41.0% 73.8% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop-joker?window=24h) | 189 | 67.66% ±26.1 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop-joker?window=7d) | 838 | 93.27% ±12.5 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop-joker) | 933 | 91.62% ±11.9 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop-joker?window=all) | 933 | 91.62% ±11.9 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 944 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $395 | 24.7% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $287 | 17.9% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $197 | 24.6% | 56 | 47.2 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $121 | 3.8% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $84.17 | 10.5% | 61 | 47.2 | 1.29× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $54.22 | 3.4% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $53.32 | 1.7% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $49.95 | 3.1% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $38.45 | 1.2% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $32.02 | 1.0% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $29.31 | 0.9% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $18.23 | 0.6% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $14.21 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $13.68 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $13.05 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $12.64 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $12.58 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $12.04 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $9.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $6.75 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $6.56 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $6.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $5.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $5.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $5.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $5.01 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $4.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $4.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $4.33 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $4.18 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $4.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $4.05 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $3.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $3.49 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $3.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $3.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $3.01 | 0.2% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $2.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $2.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $2.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $2.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $1.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $1.51 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $1.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 35 | 47.2 | 0.74× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.11 | 0.0% | 42 | 47.2 | 0.89× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Caged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 41 | 47.2 | 0.87× |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 68 | 47.2 | 1.44× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/workshop-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=workshop-joker)

[AK-47 | The Oligarch weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch) Hidden $45.78 $61.17 1.34x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass) Hidden $45.78 $12.74 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch) Hidden $45.78 $61.17 1.34x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite) [KOD: Mieczyk](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KOD%3A%20Mieczyk) $45.78 $18.70 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach) Hidden $45.26 $54.44 1.20x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $45.26 $1.65 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery) Hidden $45.26 $1.65 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.26 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.26 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) [Gojo](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Gojo) $45.26 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $45.78 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $45.26 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $45.79 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $45.31 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $45.51 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $45.84 | 87.49% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $46.02 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $45.89 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $46.02 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $45.88 | 87.49% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $46.03 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $45.90 | 87.49% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $46.03 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $46.29 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $46.83 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $46.62 | 87.50% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 2.5% covert 15.0% rare 6.3% Ancient 2.5% red 5.0% #eb4b4b 1.3% pink 10.8% classified 8.3% Legendary 6.3% #d32ee6 2.9% Classified 1.7% restricted 6.3% Mythical 3.8% #8847ff 3.8% violet 3.8% mil spec 5.0% blue 15.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.51 on average: an expected loss of $12.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt