---
title: "WORKSHOP case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "WORKSHOP ($2.75) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 88.49% over 16.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [WORKSHOP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · WORKSHOP

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop?window=all)

Price · $2.75

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.41 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.49% · 16.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.59% ±10.69 1,510 openings

7 days · 89.70% ±3.54 13.4K openings

30 days · 88.49% ±3.22 16.4K openings

since tracking started · 88.49% ±3.22 16.4K openings

71.5% 82.7% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop?window=24h) | 1,510 | 82.59% ±10.7 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop?window=7d) | 13.4K | 89.70% ±3.54 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop) | 16.4K | 88.49% ±3.22 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/workshop?window=all) | 16.4K | 88.49% ±3.22 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $397 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $268 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $195 | 1.6% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $122 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,639 | $81.55 | 2.1% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 2,222 | $54.96 | 1.0% | 0 | 7.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,128 | $53.92 | 1.1% | 0 | 7.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $53.88 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 2,857 | $42.09 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,695 | $32.20 | 0.8% | 0 | 9.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $27.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $19.78 | 0.5% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 909 | $13.85 | 0.6% | 0 | 18.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 885 | $13.65 | 0.6% | 0 | 18.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $13.65 | 0.5% | 0 | 13.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 1,031 | $12.75 | 0.5% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.55 | 0.5% | 0 | 16.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 962 | $12.34 | 0.5% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $9.77 | 14.1% | 0 | 570.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $6.67 | 2.1% | 0 | 123.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $6.67 | 2.1% | 0 | 123.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 124 | $6.43 | 2.2% | 0 | 132.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $5.88 | 2.4% | 0 | 160.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $5.56 | 2.5% | 0 | 179.0 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 239 | $5.25 | 0.9% | 0 | 68.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $4.94 | 2.8% | 0 | 226.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $4.88 | 2.3% | 0 | 188.1 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $4.80 | 2.3% | 0 | 191.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $4.24 | 2.6% | 0 | 245.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $4.22 | 2.7% | 0 | 251.5 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $4.21 | 2.3% | 0 | 211.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $4.16 | 2.7% | 0 | 258.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $4.01 | 7.3% | 0 | 720.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $3.49 | 7.2% | 0 | 809.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $3.44 | 7.3% | 0 | 833.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $3.22 | 2.8% | 0 | 346.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $3.05 | 7.8% | 0 | 1014.6 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $2.20 | 0.7% | 0 | 123.0 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 118 | $2.08 | 0.7% | 0 | 139.0 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-well-worn) | 1 in 113 | $2.02 | 0.7% | 0 | 145.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $1.97 | 1.0% | 0 | 194.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $1.91 | 1.5% | 0 | 300.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 139 | $1.87 | 0.6% | 0 | 118.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $1.56 | 0.6% | 0 | 155.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $1.33 | 0.7% | 0 | 196.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $1.33 | 1.2% | 0 | 349.7 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.38 | 1.1% | 1,138 | 1095.9 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 13.8% | $0.09 | 0.5% | 2,166 | 2256.4 | 0.96× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Caged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-field-tested) | 13.7% | $0.09 | 0.5% | 2,261 | 2251.7 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) | 13.7% | $0.09 | 0.5% | 2,231 | 2251.7 | 0.99× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/workshop`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore) Hidden $2.75 $328 119.2x 2026-11-06 13:45 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore) [sienafit11](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/sienafit11) $2.75 $325 118.3x 2026-11-07 03:26 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [nexujanek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/nexujanek) $2.75 $196 71.23x 2026-11-07 19:48 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.75 $190 69.13x 2026-11-05 03:32 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.75 $187 68.03x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=workshop)

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor) [NRForceTomi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NRForceTomi) $2.75 $8.50 3.09x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain) Hidden $2.75 $4.38 1.59x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.75 $0.09 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.75 $0.09 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[MAG-7 | Popdog (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-minimal-wear) [Twikziu ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Twikziu%20%E3%83%84) $2.75 $0.38 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-field-tested) Hidden $2.75 $0.09 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[MAG-7 | Popdog (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.75 $0.38 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery) [Twikziu ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Twikziu%20%E3%83%84) $2.75 $1.56 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Urban Shock weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock) Hidden $2.75 $2.79 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery) [NRForceTomi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NRForceTomi) $2.75 $1.56 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $2.75 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.75 | 87.58% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2.75 | 87.79% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2.75 | 87.28% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2.75 | 87.25% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.75 | 87.60% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2.75 | 87.17% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2.75 | 87.60% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $2.75 | 87.27% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.75 | 87.77% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $2.75 | 87.12% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.75 | 87.27% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $2.75 | 87.72% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2.75 | 87.36% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.75 | 87.18% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2.75 | 87.27% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $2.75 | 87.56% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.75 | 87.57% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 6.2% covert 0.2% rare 0.1% Ancient 0.0% red 0.3% #eb4b4b 0.1% pink 15.2% classified 3.8% Legendary 10.1% #d32ee6 2.1% Classified 1.0% restricted 3.2% Mythical 4.2% #8847ff 2.7% violet 2.9% mil spec 6.7% blue 41.2% best hit $328 (119.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt