---
title: "XAK1 JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "XAK1 JOKER ($54.71) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 75 items with odds, observed 86.59% over 2,148 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/xak1-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [XAK1 JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/xak1-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · XAK1 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/xak1-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/xak1-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/xak1-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/xak1-joker?window=all)

Price · $54.71

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $47.87 from 75 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.59% · 2,148 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.19% ±32.43 194 openings

7 days · 83.00% ±10.18 1,968 openings

30 days · 86.59% ±9.75 2,148 openings

since tracking started · 86.59% ±9.75 2,148 openings

53.0% 86.3% 119.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/xak1-joker?window=24h) | 194 | 86.19% ±32.4 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/xak1-joker?window=7d) | 1,968 | 83.00% ±10.2 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/xak1-joker) | 2,148 | 86.59% ±9.75 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/xak1-joker?window=all) | 2,148 | 86.59% ±9.75 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 75 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,437 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 23 | $595 | 54.1% | 108 | 105.9 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 23 | $234 | 21.2% | 98 | 105.9 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $66.23 | 1.5% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $65.41 | 5.9% | 88 | 105.9 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $59.09 | 1.8% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $55.23 | 1.7% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $54.85 | 1.7% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $54.68 | 1.2% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $51.70 | 1.2% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $48.87 | 1.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $40.12 | 1.2% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $39.11 | 1.2% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $38.08 | 1.2% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $34.78 | 0.6% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $17.07 | 0.3% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $16.91 | 0.4% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $8.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $8.80 | 0.2% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $8.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $8.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $8.40 | 0.2% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $7.25 | 0.2% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $6.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $5.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $5.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $5.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $5.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $4.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $4.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $4.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $4.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $3.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $3.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $3.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $3.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $3.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $3.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $2.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $2.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $2.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $2.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $2.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $1.87 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $1.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.58 | 0.1% | 89 | 106.0 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $1.56 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $1.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $1.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $1.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $0.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $0.78 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $0.78 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $0.76 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Brake Light (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-brake-light-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.61 | 0.1% | 101 | 106.0 | 0.95× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/xak1-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $56.50 $611 10.81x 2026-11-04 13:34 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $56.50 $611 10.81x 2026-11-04 12:39 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [-yuvenx](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/-yuvenx) $56.50 $611 10.81x 2026-11-04 04:21 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [SPARKY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SPARKY) $56.50 $611 10.81x 2026-11-03 23:23 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $56.50 $611 10.81x 2026-11-03 22:21 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $56.50 $611 10.81x 2026-11-03 22:17 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $56.50 $611 10.81x 2026-11-03 21:52 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $56.50 $611 10.81x 2026-11-03 20:54 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $56.50 $611 10.81x 2026-11-03 20:50 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $56.50 $611 10.81x 2026-11-03 19:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=xak1-joker)

[SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat) [junio](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/junio) $54.71 $1.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fragment weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment) [junio](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/junio) $54.71 $0.28 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [junio](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/junio) $54.71 $595 10.88x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) Hidden $54.71 $55.37 1.01x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Crossfade weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade) Hidden $54.71 $2.68 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fragment weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $54.71 $0.28 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net) Hidden $54.71 $3.86 0.07x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal) Hidden $54.71 $10.66 0.19x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC

[M4A4 | In Living Color weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color) Hidden $54.71 $39.10 0.71x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) [Ly aim \_gt;](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Ly%20aim%20_gt%3B) $54.71 $4.94 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $54.71 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $55.22 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $54.71 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $55.22 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $55.63 | 87.49% | 75 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $55.85 | 87.51% | 75 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $55.32 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $55.45 | 87.49% | 75 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $56.40 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $56.33 | 87.49% | 75 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $56.17 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $56.31 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $56.55 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $56.17 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $56.31 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $56.50 | 87.49% | 75 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $56.31 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $56.50 | 87.49% | 75 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 4.3% red 5.8% Ancient 2.5% extraordinary 4.3% covert 9.1% pink 7.7% uncommon 3.2% #d32ce6 1.1% Legendary 3.6% classified 2.5% Classified 4.0% #d32ee6 1.1% restricted 6.5% Mythical 6.5% blue 20.4% common 2.2% violet 2.9% Rare 2.0% #4b69ff 8.5% milspec 1.7% best hit $611 (10.81x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt