--- title: "10% Watch case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Watch ($57.03) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 20 items with odds, observed 83.76% over 1,237 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/10percent-watch rendered: 2026-11-11T19:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [10% Watch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/10percent-watch) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · 10% Watch A box on Cases.gg (Watch), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/10percent-watch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/10percent-watch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/10percent-watch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/10percent-watch?window=all) Price · $57.03 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $51.04 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.76% · 1,237 openings, odds method Variance · 11.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 89.97% ±20.83 976 openings 30 days · 83.76% ±18.50 1,237 openings since tracking started · 83.76% ±18.50 1,237 openings -0.5% 82.3% 165.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/10percent-watch?window=24h) | 30 | 45.61% ±118.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/10percent-watch?window=7d) | 976 | 89.97% ±20.8 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/10percent-watch) | 1,237 | 83.76% ±18.5 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/10percent-watch?window=all) | 1,237 | 83.76% ±18.5 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,237 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Rolex Datejust 36 16014 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36-16014) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,900 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [TAG Heuer Carrera Calibre 16 CV2014 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tag-heuer-carrera-calibre-16-cv2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,118 | 4.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) | 1 in 500 | $1,350 | 5.3% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [BAPE Type 2 Bapex #1 Watch Silver/Black/Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-2-bapex-1-watch-silver-black-green) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,300 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Longines La Grande Classique L4.766.4.51.6 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/longines-la-grande-classique-l4-766-4-51-6) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,237 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.62× | | [Apple Watch Ultra 2 \[GPS + Cellular 49mm\] Smartwatch with Rugged Titanium Case & Blue Alpine Loop Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-ultra-2-gps-cellular-49mm-smartwatch-with-rugged-titanium-case-and-blue-alpine-loop-medium) | 1 in 500 | $900 | 3.5% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [Apple Watch Series 9 \[GPS + Cellular 41mm\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-series-9-gps-cellular-41mm) | 1 in 500 | $800 | 3.1% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch Ultra 47mm, Titanium Gray other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-ultra-47mm-titanium-gray) | 1 in 500 | $780 | 3.1% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch Ultra 47mm, Titanium White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-ultra-47mm-titanium-white) | 1 in 500 | $780 | 3.1% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.62× | | [Swatch Moonswatch Mission to the Moonphase other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-moonswatch-mission-to-the-moonphase) | 1 in 333 | $540 | 3.2% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.35× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission To Moonphase Snoopy Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-moonphase-snoopy-black) | 1 in 250 | $540 | 4.2% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.01× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Saturn SO33T100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-saturn-so33t100) | 1 in 143 | $490 | 6.7% | 8 | 8.7 | 0.92× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Pluto SO33M101 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-pluto-so33m101) | 1 in 125 | $475 | 7.4% | 14 | 9.9 | 1.41× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to the Sun SO33J100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-the-sun-so33j100) | 1 in 80 | $450 | 11.0% | 18 | 15.5 | 1.16× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to the Moon SO33M100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-the-moon-so33m100) | 1 in 200 | $429 | 4.2% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.13× | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Mars SO33R100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-mars-so33r100) | 1 in 222 | $422 | 3.7% | 3 | 5.6 | 0.54× | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 44mm, Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-44mm-silver) | 1 in 78 | $396 | 10.0% | 13 | 16.0 | 0.81× | | [Casio Men's G-Shock Move DW-H5600 Series, Multisport (Run, Walking, Gym Workout), Heart Rate Watch, Quartz Solar Assisted Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-mens-g-shock-move-dw-h5600-series-multisport-run-walking-gym-workout-heart-rate-watch-quartz-solar-assisted-watch) | 1 in 67 | $360 | 10.6% | 18 | 18.6 | 0.97× | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Cream other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-cream) | 1 in 67 | $345 | 10.1% | 15 | 18.6 | 0.81× | | [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) | 90.0% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 1,116 | 1113.3 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) [✪ DubbleuJB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/%E2%9C%AA%20DubbleuJB) $57.03 $1,350 23.67x 2026-11-06 09:23 UTC [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) Hidden $57.03 $1,350 23.67x 2026-11-05 19:39 UTC [Longines La Grande Classique L4.766.4.51.6 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/longines-la-grande-classique-l4-766-4-51-6) Hidden $57.03 $1,237 21.69x 2026-11-06 09:11 UTC [Longines La Grande Classique L4.766.4.51.6 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/longines-la-grande-classique-l4-766-4-51-6) Hidden $57.03 $1,237 21.69x 2026-11-05 23:35 UTC [Apple Watch Ultra 2 \[GPS + Cellular 49mm\] Smartwatch with Rugged Titanium Case & Blue Alpine Loop Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-ultra-2-gps-cellular-49mm-smartwatch-with-rugged-titanium-case-and-blue-alpine-loop-medium) Hidden $57.03 $900 15.78x 2026-11-03 08:43 UTC [Apple Watch Series 9 \[GPS + Cellular 41mm\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-series-9-gps-cellular-41mm) Hidden $57.03 $800 14.03x 2026-11-06 16:41 UTC [Apple Watch Series 9 \[GPS + Cellular 41mm\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-series-9-gps-cellular-41mm) Hidden $57.03 $800 14.03x 2026-11-05 23:34 UTC [Apple Watch Series 9 \[GPS + Cellular 41mm\] other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-series-9-gps-cellular-41mm) Hidden $57.03 $800 14.03x 2026-11-03 15:18 UTC [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch Ultra 47mm, Titanium Gray other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-ultra-47mm-titanium-gray) Hidden $57.03 $780 13.68x 2026-11-11 03:21 UTC [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch Ultra 47mm, Titanium White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-ultra-47mm-titanium-white) Hidden $57.03 $780 13.68x 2026-11-07 13:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=10percent-watch) [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $57.03 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $57.03 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $57.03 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $57.03 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $57.03 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $57.03 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $57.03 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $57.03 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $57.03 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Glasst](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Glasst) $57.03 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $57.03 | 89.49% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,350 (23.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt