--- title: "1% Rollie case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "1% Rollie ($211.38) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 53.97% over 620 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-rollie rendered: 2026-11-11T23:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [1% Rollie](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-rollie) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · 1% Rollie A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-rollie?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-rollie?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-rollie) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-rollie?window=all) Price · $211.38 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $189.18 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.97% · 620 openings, odds method Variance · 97.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 308 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 356 openings · below min 30 days · 620 openings · below min since tracking started · 620 openings · below min -0.5% 259.5% 519.5% **Small sample.** 620 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-rollie?window=24h) | 14 | 2.50% ±516.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-rollie?window=7d) | 356 | 58.05% ±102.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-rollie) | 620 | 53.97% ±77.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-rollie?window=all) | 620 | 53.97% ±77.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 620 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Rolex Day-Date 40mm 228238 Champagne Index Dial Yellow Gold President Bracelet Fluted Bezel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-day-date-40mm-228238-champagne-index-dial-yellow-gold-president-bracelet-fluted-bezel) | 1 in 2,000 | $50K | 13.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Rolex Submariner Date other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-submariner-date) | 1 in 2,000 | $40K | 10.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Rolex Sky-Dweller with Mint Green Dial other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-sky-dweller-with-mint-green-dial) | 1 in 1,333 | $33K | 13.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Rolex GMT-Master II Rose Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-rose-gold) | 1 in 1,333 | $23.2K | 9.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Rolex GMT-Master II Batman other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-batman) | 1 in 1,333 | $21K | 8.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Rolex Submariner Date other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-submariner-date) | 1 in 1,333 | $15.7K | 6.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [ROLEX DATEJUST 36MM STEEL (16234) - 1.00CTW DIAMOND BEZEL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36mm-steel-16234-1-00ctw-diamond-bezel) | 1 in 1,000 | $11.6K | 6.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Rolex Oyster Perpetual 34mm 124200 Stainless Steel Pink Index Dial Oyster Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-oyster-perpetual-34mm-124200-stainless-steel-pink-index-dial-oyster-bracelet) | 1 in 500 | $10.5K | 11.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× | | [Rolex Oyster Perpetual 41mm 124300 Silver Steel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-oyster-perpetual-41mm-124300-silver-steel) | 1 in 1,000 | $10.3K | 5.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Rolex Datejust 36 16014 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36-16014) | 1 in 500 | $7,900 | 8.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× | | [Rolex Datejust Oyster link other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-oyster-link) | 1 in 100 | $420 | 2.2% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× | | [Rolex Brown Travel Pouch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-brown-travel-pouch) | 1 in 100 | $335 | 1.8% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× | | [Luxury 12 Slot Watch Box Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/luxury-12-slot-watch-box-organizer) | 1 in 100 | $210 | 1.1% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× | | [Single Watch Travel Case -Classic Leather Watch Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/single-watch-travel-case-classic-leather-watch-case) | 1 in 100 | $30.00 | 0.2% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.13× | | [Leather Watch Box 12 Mens Watch Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/leather-watch-box-12-mens-watch-organizer) | 1 in 100 | $28.00 | 0.1% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× | | [Watch Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-box) | 1 in 20 | $18.99 | 0.5% | 26 | 31.0 | 0.84× | | [Watch Link Removal Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-link-removal-kit) | 10.0% | $7.00 | 0.4% | 77 | 62.0 | 1.24× | | [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) | 79.0% | $5.00 | 2.1% | 487 | 489.8 | 0.99× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Rolex GMT-Master II Rose Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-rose-gold) Hidden $211 $23.2K 109.8x 2026-11-03 06:37 UTC [Rolex GMT-Master II Batman other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-batman) [Elon musk](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Elon%20musk) $211 $21K 99.35x 2026-11-06 11:58 UTC [Rolex Oyster Perpetual 34mm 124200 Stainless Steel Pink Index Dial Oyster Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-oyster-perpetual-34mm-124200-stainless-steel-pink-index-dial-oyster-bracelet) [Oliveira16](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oliveira16) $211 $10.5K 49.67x 2026-11-06 16:49 UTC [Rolex Datejust 36 16014 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36-16014) [Oliveira16](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oliveira16) $211 $7,900 37.37x 2026-11-06 16:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=1percent-rollie) [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $211 $5.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $211 $5.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $211 $5.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Watch Link Removal Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-link-removal-kit) Hidden $211 $7.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $211 $5.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) [Camel No. 9](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Camel%20No.%209) $211 $5.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $211 $5.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $211 $5.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) Hidden $211 $5.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [Microfiber Cleaning Cloths other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microfiber-cleaning-cloths) [Camel No. 9](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Camel%20No.%209) $211 $5.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $211 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $23.2K (109.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt