--- title: "1% Watch case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "1% Watch ($3.24) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.46% from 20 items with odds, observed 69.16% over 5,424 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-watch rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [1% Watch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-watch) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · 1% Watch A box on Cases.gg (Cheap), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-watch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-watch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-watch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-watch?window=all) Price · $3.24 Advertised RTP · 89.46% · EV $2.90 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.16% · 5,424 openings, odds method Variance · 126.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 250 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 480 openings · below min 7 days · 69.01% ±32.95 4,488 openings 30 days · 69.16% ±29.97 5,424 openings since tracking started · 69.16% ±29.97 5,424 openings -0.5% 97.5% 195.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-watch?window=24h) | 480 | 94.25% ±100.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-watch?window=7d) | 4,488 | 69.01% ±33.0 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-watch) | 5,424 | 69.16% ±30.0 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1percent-watch?window=all) | 5,424 | 69.16% ±30.0 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,424 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [TAG Heuer Carrera Calibre 16 CV2014 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tag-heuer-carrera-calibre-16-cv2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,118 | 7.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Casio Men's Pro Trek PRW-3500T-7CR Tough Solar Triple Sensor Digital Sport Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-mens-pro-trek-prw-3500t-7cr-tough-solar-triple-sensor-digital-sport-watch) | 1 in 10,000 | $600 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch Moonswatch Mission to the Moonphase other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-moonswatch-mission-to-the-moonphase) | 1 in 10,000 | $540 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission To Moonphase Snoopy Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-moonphase-snoopy-black) | 1 in 10,000 | $540 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Mercury SO33A100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-mercury-so33a100) | 1 in 10,000 | $510 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission On Earth Lava SO33O100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-on-earth-lava-so33o100) | 1 in 10,000 | $500 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Saturn SO33T100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-saturn-so33t100) | 1 in 10,000 | $490 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Uranus SO33L100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-uranus-so33l100) | 1 in 10,000 | $480 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Pluto SO33M101 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-pluto-so33m101) | 1 in 10,000 | $475 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Neptune SO33N100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-neptune-so33n100) | 1 in 10,000 | $459 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to the Sun SO33J100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-the-sun-so33j100) | 1 in 10,000 | $450 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to the Moon SO33M100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-the-moon-so33m100) | 1 in 10,000 | $429 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Mars SO33R100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-mars-so33r100) | 1 in 10,000 | $422 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 44mm, Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-44mm-silver) | 1 in 5,000 | $396 | 2.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 44mm, Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-44mm-green) | 1 in 2,000 | $396 | 6.8% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-green) | 1 in 1,000 | $360 | 12.4% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× | | [Casio Men's G-Shock Move DW-H5600 Series, Multisport (Run, Walking, Gym Workout), Heart Rate Watch, Quartz Solar Assisted Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-mens-g-shock-move-dw-h5600-series-multisport-run-walking-gym-workout-heart-rate-watch-quartz-solar-assisted-watch) | 1 in 1,000 | $360 | 12.4% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Cream other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-cream) | 1 in 1,000 | $345 | 11.9% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× | | [Casio G Shock Men's GD-120CM-8CR G-Shock Digital Display Quartz Grey Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-mens-gd-120cm-8cr-g-shock-digital-display-quartz-grey-watch) | 1 in 200 | $149 | 25.7% | 27 | 27.1 | 1.00× | | [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) | 99.0% | $0.01 | 0.3% | 5,376 | 5369.8 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Mercury SO33A100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-mercury-so33a100) [Ränk](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/R%C3%A4nk) $3.24 $510 157.4x 2026-11-07 19:31 UTC [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Saturn SO33T100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-saturn-so33t100) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $490 151.2x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Uranus SO33L100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-uranus-so33l100) Hidden $3.24 $480 148.1x 2026-11-09 14:33 UTC [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Pluto SO33M101 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-pluto-so33m101) Hidden $3.24 $475 146.6x 2026-11-03 06:21 UTC [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to the Sun SO33J100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-the-sun-so33j100) Hidden $3.24 $450 138.9x 2026-11-04 21:08 UTC [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 44mm, Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-44mm-green) Hidden $3.24 $396 122.2x 2026-11-10 20:08 UTC [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 44mm, Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-44mm-green) Hidden $3.24 $396 122.2x 2026-11-03 14:15 UTC [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-green) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $360 111.1x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-green) [strunmercury45](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/strunmercury45) $3.24 $360 111.1x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch 7 40mm, Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-7-40mm-green) Hidden $3.24 $360 111.1x 2026-11-11 02:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=1percent-watch) [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Saturn SO33T100 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-saturn-so33t100) [Sti\*\*\*mes](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sti***mes-68093) $3.24 $490 151.2x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.24 | 89.46% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $510 (157.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.46 on average: an expected loss of $10.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt