--- title: "1st Edition case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1st Edition ($353.41) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 108.71% over 174 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1st-edition rendered: 2026-11-11T18:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [1st Edition](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1st-edition) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · 1st Edition A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1st-edition?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1st-edition?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1st-edition) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1st-edition?window=all) Price · $353.41 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $316.29 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 108.71% · 174 openings, odds method Variance · 25.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 126 openings · below min 30 days · 174 openings · below min since tracking started · 174 openings · below min -0.5% 221.0% 442.5% **Small sample.** 174 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1st-edition?window=24h) | 12 | 154.07% ±287.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1st-edition?window=7d) | 126 | 139.68% ±88.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1st-edition) | 174 | 108.71% ±75.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/1st-edition?window=all) | 174 | 108.71% ±75.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 174 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Charizard #4 PSA 9 MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-holo-charizard-4-psa-9-mint) | 1 in 1,000 | $41.3K | 13.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Venusaur #15 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-holo-venusaur-15-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 1,000 | $19.8K | 6.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Raichu #14 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-holo-raichu-14-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 500 | $14.4K | 9.1% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Booster Pack Charizard PSA 10 GEM other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-booster-pack-charizard-psa-10-gem) | 1 in 333 | $10.7K | 10.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Red Cheeks Pikachu #58 PSA 10 GEM other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-red-cheeks-pikachu-58-psa-10-gem) | 1 in 333 | $5,950 | 5.6% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Machamp #8 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-holo-machamp-8-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 100 | $4,950 | 15.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Bulbasaur #44 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-bulbasaur-44-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 100 | $2,370 | 7.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Charmeleon #24 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-charmeleon-24-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 100 | $1,550 | 4.9% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Electabuzz #20 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-electabuzz-20-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 50 | $1,210 | 7.7% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Magikarp #35 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-magikarp-35-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 50 | $690 | 4.4% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Magmar #36 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-magmar-36-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 50 | $360 | 2.3% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [Converse Chuck Taylor All Star Light Hi Pokemon Pikachu (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/converse-chuck-taylor-all-star-light-hi-pokemon-pikachu-us-8) | 1 in 20 | $300 | 4.7% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.57× | | [Levis x Pokémon Unisex Crewneck Sweatshirt (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/levis-x-pokemon-unisex-crewneck-sweatshirt-us-l) | 1 in 20 | $240 | 3.8% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.03× | | [Funko Pop! Games Pokemon Grumpy Pikachu (Flocked) Fall Convention Exclusive Figure #598 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-games-pokemon-grumpy-pikachu-flocked-fall-convention-exclusive-figure-598) | 10.0% | $61.00 | 1.9% | 22 | 17.4 | 1.26× | | [Pokemon Center x Van Gogh Museum: Pikachu Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-center-x-van-gogh-museum-pikachu-plush) | 10.0% | $31.00 | 1.0% | 17 | 17.4 | 0.98× | | [Stainless Steel Vacuum Insulated Bottle, Pokemon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stainless-steel-vacuum-insulated-bottle-pokemon) | 20.0% | $19.00 | 1.2% | 28 | 34.8 | 0.80× | | [Squishmallows Pokemon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-pokemon) | 20.0% | $9.60 | 0.6% | 44 | 34.8 | 1.26× | | [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) | 20.0% | $3.00 | 0.2% | 33 | 34.8 | 0.95× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Raichu #14 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-holo-raichu-14-psa-10-gem-mint) Hidden $353 $14.4K 40.75x 2026-11-09 17:14 UTC [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Raichu #14 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-holo-raichu-14-psa-10-gem-mint) [Arrrbaccos](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Arrrbaccos) $353 $14.4K 40.75x 2026-11-06 06:23 UTC [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Red Cheeks Pikachu #58 PSA 10 GEM other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-red-cheeks-pikachu-58-psa-10-gem) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $353 $5,950 16.84x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Red Cheeks Pikachu #58 PSA 10 GEM other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-red-cheeks-pikachu-58-psa-10-gem) Hidden $353 $5,950 16.84x 2026-11-07 13:05 UTC [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Machamp #8 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-holo-machamp-8-psa-10-gem-mint) Hidden $353 $4,950 14.01x 2026-11-08 11:42 UTC [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Machamp #8 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-holo-machamp-8-psa-10-gem-mint) [Arrrbaccos](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Arrrbaccos) $353 $4,950 14.01x 2026-11-06 06:27 UTC [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Bulbasaur #44 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-bulbasaur-44-psa-10-gem-mint) Hidden $353 $2,370 6.71x 2026-11-04 14:39 UTC [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Electabuzz #20 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-electabuzz-20-psa-10-gem-mint) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $353 $1,210 3.42x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Electabuzz #20 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-electabuzz-20-psa-10-gem-mint) Hidden $353 $1,210 3.42x 2026-11-09 17:13 UTC [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Electabuzz #20 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-electabuzz-20-psa-10-gem-mint) Hidden $353 $1,210 3.42x 2026-11-07 13:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=1st-edition) [Squishmallows Pokemon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-pokemon) Hidden $353 $9.60 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC [Squishmallows Pokemon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-pokemon) Hidden $353 $9.60 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC [Pokemon Center x Van Gogh Museum: Pikachu Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-center-x-van-gogh-museum-pikachu-plush) Hidden $353 $31.00 0.09x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC [Squishmallows Pokemon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-pokemon) Hidden $353 $9.60 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $353 $3.00 0.01x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC [Squishmallows Pokemon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-pokemon) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $353 $9.60 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $353 $3.00 0.01x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC [Squishmallows Pokemon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/squishmallows-pokemon) Hidden $353 $9.60 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC [Stainless Steel Vacuum Insulated Bottle, Pokemon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stainless-steel-vacuum-insulated-bottle-pokemon) Hidden $353 $19.00 0.05x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC [Levis x Pokémon Unisex Crewneck Sweatshirt (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/levis-x-pokemon-unisex-crewneck-sweatshirt-us-l) Hidden $353 $240 0.68x 2026-11-10 21:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $353 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $14.4K (40.75x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt