--- title: "30% Nike case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "30% Nike ($96.73) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 23 items with odds, observed 110.64% over 211 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/30percent-nike rendered: 2026-11-11T23:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [30% Nike](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/30percent-nike) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · 30% Nike A box on Cases.gg (Nike), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/30percent-nike?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/30percent-nike?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/30percent-nike) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/30percent-nike?window=all) Price · $96.73 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $86.57 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 110.64% · 211 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 33 openings · below min 7 days · 110.64% ±26.34 211 openings 30 days · 110.64% ±26.34 211 openings since tracking started · 110.64% ±26.34 211 openings 83.5% 172.5% 261.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/30percent-nike?window=24h) | 33 | 194.16% ±66.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/30percent-nike?window=7d) | 211 | 110.64% ±26.3 | +1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/30percent-nike) | 211 | 110.64% ±26.3 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/30percent-nike?window=all) | 211 | 110.64% ±26.3 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 211 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White Brooklyn (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-brooklyn-us-8) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,240 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White ICA University Gold (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-ica-university-gold-us-7) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,240 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nike Air Max 90 Off-White (US Men's 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-max-90-off-white-us-mens-7) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,160 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nike Blazer Mid Off-White (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-mid-off-white-us-10) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,480 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White Volt (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-volt-us-11) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,390 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nike SB Dunk Low StrangeLove Skateboards (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-strangelove-skateboards-us-9) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,270 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nike Blazer Mid Off-White Grim Reaper (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-mid-off-white-grim-reaper-us-10) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,212 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Nike Dunk Low Off-White Lot 1 (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-off-white-lot-1-us-9) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,000 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nike SB Dunk LowSupreme Stars Mean Green (2021) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-lowsupreme-stars-mean-green-2021-us-10) | 1 in 1,000 | $986 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Nike Blazer Mid Off-White All Hallow's Eve (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-mid-off-white-all-hallows-eve-us-10) | 1 in 1,000 | $789 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Nike Air Rubber Dunk Off-White UNC (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-rubber-dunk-off-white-unc-us-10) | 1 in 67 | $748 | 13.0% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× | | [Nike Air Max 90 Off-White Desert Ore (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-max-90-off-white-desert-ore-us-10) | 1 in 1,000 | $680 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Nike SB Dunk Low Instant Skateboards (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-instant-skateboards-us-10) | 1 in 50 | $640 | 14.8% | 10 | 4.2 | 2.37× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low SP Supreme Wheat (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-sp-supreme-wheat-us-11) | 1 in 34 | $510 | 17.1% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Flyleather Ruohan Wang (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-flyleather-ruohan-wang-us-7) | 1 in 67 | $495 | 8.6% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.95× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 PRM NY vs. NY (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-prm-ny-vs-ny-us-7) | 1 in 50 | $385 | 8.9% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 PRM NY vs. NY (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-prm-ny-vs-ny-us-10) | 1 in 33 | $245 | 8.5% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Retro Ivory Snake (2019/2024) (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-retro-ivory-snake-2019-2024-us-7) | 1 in 33 | $160 | 5.5% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 LV8 Coconut Milk Khaki (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-lv8-coconut-milk-khaki-us-9) | 1 in 33 | $125 | 4.3% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× | | [Nike Dunk Low Photon Dust (Women's) (US 5.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-photon-dust-womens-us-5-5) | 1 in 29 | $98.99 | 4.0% | 9 | 7.4 | 1.22× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Patent Platinum Tint Stadium Green (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-patent-platinum-tint-stadium-green-us-9) | 1 in 29 | $77.00 | 3.1% | 9 | 7.4 | 1.22× | | [Nike Dunk Low Team Gold (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-team-gold-us-9) | 1 in 29 | $75.00 | 3.0% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× | | [Nike Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sticker) | 70.0% | $1.99 | 1.6% | 141 | 147.7 | 0.95× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Nike Blazer Mid Off-White (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-mid-off-white-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $1,480 15.30x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC [Nike SB Dunk LowSupreme Stars Mean Green (2021) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-lowsupreme-stars-mean-green-2021-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $986 10.19x 2026-11-06 07:35 UTC [Nike Blazer Mid Off-White All Hallow's Eve (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-mid-off-white-all-hallows-eve-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $789 8.16x 2026-11-05 16:25 UTC [Nike Air Rubber Dunk Off-White UNC (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-rubber-dunk-off-white-unc-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $748 7.73x 2026-11-11 05:16 UTC [Nike Air Rubber Dunk Off-White UNC (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-rubber-dunk-off-white-unc-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $748 7.73x 2026-11-08 18:55 UTC [Nike Air Rubber Dunk Off-White UNC (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-rubber-dunk-off-white-unc-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $748 7.73x 2026-11-08 18:46 UTC [Nike Air Rubber Dunk Off-White UNC (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-rubber-dunk-off-white-unc-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $748 7.73x 2026-11-06 07:57 UTC [Nike SB Dunk Low Instant Skateboards (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-instant-skateboards-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $640 6.62x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC [Nike SB Dunk Low Instant Skateboards (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-instant-skateboards-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $640 6.62x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC [Nike SB Dunk Low Instant Skateboards (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-instant-skateboards-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $640 6.62x 2026-11-08 18:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=30percent-nike) [Nike Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sticker) Hidden $96.73 $1.99 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC [Nike Dunk Low Team Gold (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-team-gold-us-9) Hidden $96.73 $75.00 0.78x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC [Nike SB Dunk Low Instant Skateboards (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-instant-skateboards-us-10) Hidden $96.73 $640 6.62x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC [Nike Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sticker) Hidden $96.73 $1.99 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 LV8 Coconut Milk Khaki (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-lv8-coconut-milk-khaki-us-9) Hidden $96.73 $125 1.29x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC [Nike Dunk Low Photon Dust (Women's) (US 5.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-photon-dust-womens-us-5-5) [Code:666 800$ LB FREE](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Code%3A666%20800%24%20LB%20FREE) $96.73 $98.99 1.02x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC [Nike Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sticker) Hidden $96.73 $1.99 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC [Nike Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sticker) Hidden $96.73 $1.99 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC [Nike Air Force 1 Low Retro Ivory Snake (2019/2024) (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-retro-ivory-snake-2019-2024-us-7) Hidden $96.73 $160 1.65x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 LV8 Coconut Milk Khaki (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-lv8-coconut-milk-khaki-us-9) Hidden $96.73 $125 1.29x 2026-11-11 22:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $96.73 | 89.50% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,480 (15.30x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt