--- title: "500 WILL HIT case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "500 WILL HIT ($0.25) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.98% over 878 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/500-will-hit rendered: 2026-11-11T18:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [500 WILL HIT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/500-will-hit) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · 500 WILL HIT A box on Cases.gg, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/500-will-hit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/500-will-hit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/500-will-hit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/500-will-hit?window=all) Price · $0.25 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.98% · 878 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 266 openings · below min 7 days · 878 openings · below min 30 days · 878 openings · below min since tracking started · 878 openings · below min -0.5% 91.0% 182.5% **Small sample.** 878 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/500-will-hit?window=24h) | 266 | 4.00% ±0.00 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/500-will-hit?window=7d) | 878 | 85.98% ±96.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/500-will-hit) | 878 | 85.98% ±96.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/500-will-hit?window=all) | 878 | 85.98% ±96.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · none published **No catalog** Cases.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [$100 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $100 400.0x 2026-11-09 14:11 UTC [$20 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-voucher) [MrBloopy](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/MrBloopy) $0.25 $20.00 80.00x 2026-11-09 20:31 UTC [$20 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $20.00 80.00x 2026-11-09 14:11 UTC [$20 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $20.00 80.00x 2026-11-09 13:42 UTC [$20 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $20.00 80.00x 2026-11-09 13:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=500-will-hit) [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $0.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $0.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $0.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $0.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $0.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [MrBloopy](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/MrBloopy) $0.25 $0.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $0.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $0.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $0.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $0.25 $0.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $100 (400.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.98 on average: an expected loss of $14.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt