--- title: "5% Mouse case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Mouse ($10.37) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.44% from 16 items with odds, observed 99.98% over 2,865 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/5percent-mouse rendered: 2026-11-11T17:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [5% Mouse](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/5percent-mouse) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · 5% Mouse A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/5percent-mouse?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/5percent-mouse?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/5percent-mouse) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/5percent-mouse?window=all) Price · $10.37 Advertised RTP · 89.44% · EV $9.27 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.98% · 2,865 openings, odds method Variance · 20.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 61 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 115.70% ±42.82 429 openings 7 days · 99.29% ±17.25 2,643 openings 30 days · 99.98% ±16.57 2,865 openings since tracking started · 99.98% ±16.57 2,865 openings 72.0% 115.5% 159.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/5percent-mouse?window=24h) | 429 | 115.70% ±42.8 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/5percent-mouse?window=7d) | 2,643 | 99.29% ±17.3 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/5percent-mouse) | 2,865 | 99.98% ±16.6 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/5percent-mouse?window=all) | 2,865 | 99.98% ±16.6 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,865 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Logitech Wireless Optical TrackMan Trackball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-wireless-optical-trackman-trackball) | 1 in 303 | $480 | 17.1% | 16 | 9.5 | 1.69× | | [ASUS ROG Harpe Ace Extreme other](https://gambatracker.com/items/asus-rog-harpe-ace-extreme) | 1 in 303 | $345 | 12.3% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× | | [Logitech G604 LIGHTSPEED Gaming Mouse other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g604-lightspeed-gaming-mouse) | 1 in 303 | $290 | 10.3% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× | | [ASUS ROG Chakram other](https://gambatracker.com/items/asus-rog-chakram) | 1 in 303 | $245 | 8.7% | 6 | 9.5 | 0.63× | | [Logitech G PRO X SUPERLIGHT 2 LIGHTSPEED Wireless Gaming Mouse - Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g-pro-x-superlight-2-lightspeed-wireless-gaming-mouse-black) | 1 in 303 | $215 | 7.6% | 12 | 9.5 | 1.27× | | [Logitech G PRO X SUPERLIGHT 2 LIGHTSPEED Wireless Gaming Mouse other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g-pro-x-superlight-2-lightspeed-wireless-gaming-mouse) | 1 in 303 | $195 | 6.9% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.85× | | [Logitech G Pro Wireless Gaming Mouse - League of Legends Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g-pro-wireless-gaming-mouse-league-of-legends-edition) | 1 in 303 | $190 | 6.8% | 14 | 9.5 | 1.48× | | [Aerox 3 Wireless FaZe Clan Edition Mouse other](https://gambatracker.com/items/aerox-3-wireless-faze-clan-edition-mouse) | 1 in 303 | $150 | 5.3% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.85× | | [Higround Yuma CELSHADE Wireless Mouse other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-yuma-celshade-wireless-mouse) | 1 in 303 | $150 | 5.3% | 12 | 9.5 | 1.27× | | [Logitech G703 Lightspeed Wireless Gaming Mouse - Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g703-lightspeed-wireless-gaming-mouse-black) | 1 in 303 | $125 | 4.4% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.16× | | [ESL x Razer Viper Mouse other](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-x-razer-viper-mouse) | 1 in 303 | $97.50 | 3.5% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.85× | | [Razer Basilisk V3 Customizable Ergonomic Gaming Mouse - Classic Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/razer-basilisk-v3-customizable-ergonomic-gaming-mouse-classic-black) | 1 in 303 | $68.00 | 2.4% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.85× | | [Logitech G305 LIGHTSPEED Wireless Gaming Mouse other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g305-lightspeed-wireless-gaming-mouse) | 1 in 303 | $49.99 | 1.8% | 19 | 9.5 | 2.01× | | [Razer DeathAdder Essential Gaming Mouse - Mercury White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/razer-deathadder-essential-gaming-mouse-mercury-white) | 1 in 303 | $32.99 | 1.2% | 5 | 9.5 | 0.53× | | [Logitech G305 LIGHTSPEED Wireless Gaming Mouse other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g305-lightspeed-wireless-gaming-mouse) | 1 in 303 | $32.99 | 1.2% | 19 | 9.5 | 2.01× | | [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) | 95.0% | $0.50 | 5.1% | 2,720 | 2723.2 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=5percent-mouse) [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) Hidden $10.37 $0.50 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) Hidden $10.37 $0.50 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) [Dzhyrski90](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Dzhyrski90) $10.37 $0.50 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) Hidden $10.37 $0.50 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) Hidden $10.37 $0.50 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) [Dzhyrski90](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Dzhyrski90) $10.37 $0.50 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) Hidden $10.37 $0.50 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) Hidden $10.37 $0.50 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) [Dzhyrski90](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Dzhyrski90) $10.37 $0.50 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [Logitech Mouse Receiver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-mouse-receiver) Hidden $10.37 $0.50 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.37 | 89.44% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.44 on average: an expected loss of $10.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt