---
title: "AF case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AF ($326.79) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 41.77% over 18 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/af
rendered: 2026-11-12T13:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [AF](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/af)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · AF

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/af?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/af?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/af) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/af?window=all)

Price · $326.79

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $292.47 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 41.77% · 18 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 37 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 18 openings · below min

30 days · 18 openings · below min

since tracking started · 18 openings · below min

-0.5% 106.0% 212.5%

**Small sample.** 18 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/af?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/af?window=7d) | 18 | 41.77% ±170.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/af) | 18 | 41.77% ±170.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/af?window=all) | 18 | 41.77% ±170.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Louis Vuitton Nike Air Force 1 Low By Virgil Abloh White Red (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-nike-air-force-1-low-by-virgil-abloh-white-red-us-10) | 1 in 1,000 | $21.1K | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White ComplexCon (AF100) (US 9.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-complexcon-af100-us-9-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $16.5K | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Louis Vuitton Nike Air Force 1 Mid By Virgil Abloh White (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-nike-air-force-1-mid-by-virgil-abloh-white-us-10) | 1 in 400 | $12.3K | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Louis Vuitton Nike Air Force 1 Low By Virgil Abloh White Green (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-nike-air-force-1-low-by-virgil-abloh-white-green-us-8) | 1 in 200 | $7,333 | 12.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-us-8) | 1 in 133 | $3,480 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White ICA University Gold (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-ica-university-gold-us-8) | 1 in 100 | $2,159 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low SP Undefeated Multi-Patent Pink Prime (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-sp-undefeated-multi-patent-pink-prime-us-11) | 1 in 20 | $520 | 8.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low Linen (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-linen-us-10) | 15.0% | $225 | 11.5% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [Nike Air Force 3 Low SP Nigo White US M 9.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-3-low-sp-nigo-white-us-m-9-5) | 10.0% | $180 | 6.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low College Pack Midnight Navy (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-college-pack-midnight-navy-us-11) | 1 in 14 | $160 | 4.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low Retro Ivory Snake (2019/2024) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-retro-ivory-snake-2019-2024-us-10) | 25.0% | $98.00 | 8.4% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.11× |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Black White Pebbled Leather (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-black-white-pebbled-leather-us-9) | 35.0% | $74.00 | 8.9% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 09:09 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Nike Air Force 1 Low SP Undefeated Multi-Patent Pink Prime (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-sp-undefeated-multi-patent-pink-prime-us-11) Hidden $327 $520 1.59x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=af)

[Nike Air Force 3 Low SP Nigo White US M 9.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-3-low-sp-nigo-white-us-m-9-5) Hidden $327 $180 0.55x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Black White Pebbled Leather (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-black-white-pebbled-leather-us-9) Hidden $327 $74.00 0.23x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low SP Undefeated Multi-Patent Pink Prime (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-sp-undefeated-multi-patent-pink-prime-us-11) Hidden $327 $520 1.59x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Black White Pebbled Leather (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-black-white-pebbled-leather-us-9) Hidden $327 $74.00 0.23x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low Retro Ivory Snake (2019/2024) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-retro-ivory-snake-2019-2024-us-10) Hidden $327 $98.00 0.30x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low Retro Ivory Snake (2019/2024) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-retro-ivory-snake-2019-2024-us-10) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $327 $98.00 0.30x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Black White Pebbled Leather (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-black-white-pebbled-leather-us-9) Hidden $327 $74.00 0.23x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Black White Pebbled Leather (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-black-white-pebbled-leather-us-9) Hidden $327 $74.00 0.23x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low Retro Ivory Snake (2019/2024) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-retro-ivory-snake-2019-2024-us-10) Hidden $327 $98.00 0.30x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Black White Pebbled Leather (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-black-white-pebbled-leather-us-9) Hidden $327 $74.00 0.23x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $327 | 89.50% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $520 (1.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt