--- title: "AirDrop case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "AirDrop ($308.61) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 11 items with odds, observed 131.98% over 60 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/airdrop rendered: 2026-11-11T16:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [AirDrop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/airdrop) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · AirDrop A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/airdrop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/airdrop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/airdrop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/airdrop?window=all) Price · $308.61 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $276.20 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 131.98% · 60 openings, odds method Variance · 9.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 60 openings · below min 30 days · 60 openings · below min since tracking started · 60 openings · below min 55.5% 132.0% 208.5% **Small sample.** 60 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/airdrop?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/airdrop?window=7d) | 60 | 131.98% ±76.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/airdrop) | 60 | 131.98% ±76.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/airdrop?window=all) | 60 | 131.98% ±76.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MacBook Pro, Space Black, 16 Inch, M3 Max other](https://gambatracker.com/items/macbook-pro-space-black-16-inch-m3-max) | 1 in 100 | $4,800 | 17.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Apple Vision Pro - 1TB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-vision-pro-1tb) | 1 in 100 | $4,600 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Apple Vision Pro - 256GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-vision-pro-256gb) | 1 in 100 | $3,849 | 13.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Apple 2023 MacBook Pro Laptop M3 Max chip with 14‑core CPU, 30‑core GPU: 16.2-inch Liquid Retina XDR Display, 36GB Unified Memory, 1TB SSD Storage other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-2023-macbook-pro-laptop-m3-max-chip-with-14-core-cpu-30-core-gpu-16-2-inch-liquid-retina-xdr-display-36gb-unified-memory-1tb-ssd-storage) | 1 in 100 | $3,500 | 12.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [iPad Pro, 13-inch, Space Black, 2TB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ipad-pro-13-inch-space-black-2tb) | 1 in 100 | $2,800 | 10.1% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Apple 2023 MacBook Pro Laptop M3 Pro chip with 12‑core CPU, 18‑core GPU: 16.2-inch Liquid Retina XDR Display, 36GB Unified Memory, 512GB SSD Storage. other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-2023-macbook-pro-laptop-m3-pro-chip-with-12-core-cpu-18-core-gpu-16-2-inch-liquid-retina-xdr-display-36gb-unified-memory-512gb-ssd-storage) | 1 in 100 | $2,639 | 9.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Apple 2023 iMac All-in-One Desktop Computer with M3 chip: 8-core CPU, 10-core GPU, 24-inch Retina Display, 8GB Unified Memory, 512GB SSD Storage other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-2023-imac-all-in-one-desktop-computer-with-m3-chip-8-core-cpu-10-core-gpu-24-inch-retina-display-8gb-unified-memory-512gb-ssd-storage) | 1 in 100 | $1,700 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [iPhone 17 Pro Max, Silver, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-17-pro-max-silver-256-gb) | 1 in 100 | $1,500 | 5.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [iPhone 16 Pro, Desert Titanium, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-desert-titanium-128-gb) | 1 in 100 | $1,200 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Iphone 17 Lavender, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-17-lavender-256-gb) | 1 in 100 | $960 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Granny Smith Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/granny-smith-apple) | 90.0% | $0.80 | 0.3% | 51 | 54.0 | 0.94× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MacBook Pro, Space Black, 16 Inch, M3 Max other](https://gambatracker.com/items/macbook-pro-space-black-16-inch-m3-max) Hidden $309 $4,800 15.55x 2026-11-04 18:44 UTC [Apple Vision Pro - 256GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-vision-pro-256gb) Hidden $309 $3,849 12.47x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC [Apple Vision Pro - 256GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-vision-pro-256gb) Hidden $309 $3,849 12.47x 2026-11-04 18:49 UTC [iPad Pro, 13-inch, Space Black, 2TB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ipad-pro-13-inch-space-black-2tb) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $309 $2,800 9.07x 2026-11-09 17:14 UTC [iPad Pro, 13-inch, Space Black, 2TB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ipad-pro-13-inch-space-black-2tb) Hidden $309 $2,800 9.07x 2026-11-04 18:46 UTC [Apple 2023 MacBook Pro Laptop M3 Pro chip with 12‑core CPU, 18‑core GPU: 16.2-inch Liquid Retina XDR Display, 36GB Unified Memory, 512GB SSD Storage. other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-2023-macbook-pro-laptop-m3-pro-chip-with-12-core-cpu-18-core-gpu-16-2-inch-liquid-retina-xdr-display-36gb-unified-memory-512gb-ssd-storage) Hidden $309 $2,639 8.55x 2026-11-09 17:14 UTC [iPhone 17 Pro Max, Silver, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-17-pro-max-silver-256-gb) Hidden $309 $1,500 4.86x 2026-11-04 18:45 UTC [iPhone 16 Pro, Desert Titanium, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-desert-titanium-128-gb) Hidden $309 $1,200 3.89x 2026-11-04 18:45 UTC [Iphone 17 Lavender, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-17-lavender-256-gb) [Arrrbaccos](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Arrrbaccos) $309 $960 3.11x 2026-11-05 14:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=airdrop) [Granny Smith Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/granny-smith-apple) Hidden $309 $0.80 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC [Granny Smith Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/granny-smith-apple) Hidden $309 $0.80 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC [Granny Smith Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/granny-smith-apple) Hidden $309 $0.80 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC [Granny Smith Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/granny-smith-apple) Hidden $309 $0.80 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC [Apple Vision Pro - 256GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-vision-pro-256gb) Hidden $309 $3,849 12.47x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC [Granny Smith Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/granny-smith-apple) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $309 $0.80 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC [Granny Smith Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/granny-smith-apple) Hidden $309 $0.80 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:14 UTC [Apple 2023 MacBook Pro Laptop M3 Pro chip with 12‑core CPU, 18‑core GPU: 16.2-inch Liquid Retina XDR Display, 36GB Unified Memory, 512GB SSD Storage. other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-2023-macbook-pro-laptop-m3-pro-chip-with-12-core-cpu-18-core-gpu-16-2-inch-liquid-retina-xdr-display-36gb-unified-memory-512gb-ssd-storage) Hidden $309 $2,639 8.55x 2026-11-09 17:14 UTC [Granny Smith Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/granny-smith-apple) Hidden $309 $0.80 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:14 UTC [Granny Smith Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/granny-smith-apple) Hidden $309 $0.80 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $309 | 89.50% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $4,800 (15.55x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt