--- title: "Algorithm Case case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Algorithm Case ($54.64) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 15 items with odds, observed 121.93% over 724 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/algorithm-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Algorithm Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/algorithm-case) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Algorithm Case A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/algorithm-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/algorithm-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/algorithm-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/algorithm-case?window=all) Price · $54.64 Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $48.89 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 121.93% · 724 openings, odds method Variance · 606.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,667 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 278 openings · below min 30 days · 724 openings · below min since tracking started · 724 openings · below min -0.5% 243.5% 487.5% **Small sample.** 724 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/algorithm-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/algorithm-case?window=7d) | 278 | 197.12% ±289.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/algorithm-case) | 724 | 121.93% ±179.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/algorithm-case?window=all) | 724 | 121.93% ±179.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 724 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [1 Bitcoin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-bitcoin) | 1 in 10,000 | $88.9K | 18.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex Day-Date 40 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-day-date-40) | 1 in 5,000 | $52.8K | 21.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Cuban Chain 14MM Rose Gold ( 203 G ) ( 1430 Stones ) ( 36.34 CT ) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cuban-chain-14mm-rose-gold-203-g-1430-stones-36-34-ct) | 1 in 3,333 | $29.2K | 17.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Sixteen Stone Ring in Platinum with Diamonds other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sixteen-stone-ring-in-platinum-with-diamonds) | 1 in 2,500 | $17.4K | 14.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [SCHAAP EN CITROEN 179-GRIF-43D other](https://gambatracker.com/items/schaap-en-citroen-179-grif-43d) | 1 in 2,000 | $11.6K | 11.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Cartier Tank Francaise other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-tank-francaise) | 1 in 1,667 | $5,350 | 6.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [US DOLLAR SIGN DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.25CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/us-dollar-sign-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-25ctw) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,925 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Very Executive Chair other](https://gambatracker.com/items/very-executive-chair) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,012 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Louis Vuitton Double Card Case Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-double-card-case-green) | 1 in 1,111 | $739 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [5 oz Silver Bar - APMEX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-oz-silver-bar-apmex) | 1 in 1,000 | $550 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [ASUS ROG Strix Z790-A Gaming WiFi II (WiFI 7) LGA 1700 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/asus-rog-strix-z790-a-gaming-wifi-ii-wifi-7-lga-1700) | 1 in 909 | $408 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [LaCie Rugged Mini 4TB External Hard Drive Portable HDD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lacie-rugged-mini-4tb-external-hard-drive-portable-hdd) | 1 in 909 | $340 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Rolex Brown Travel Pouch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-brown-travel-pouch) | 1 in 909 | $335 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Belkin BOOST↑CHARGE™ PRO 2-in-1 Wireless Charger Stand with MagSafe other](https://gambatracker.com/items/belkin-boost-charge-pro-2-in-1-wireless-charger-stand-with-magsafe) | 1 in 833 | $99.95 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) | 99.0% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 717 | 716.8 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Cuban Chain 14MM Rose Gold ( 203 G ) ( 1430 Stones ) ( 36.34 CT ) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cuban-chain-14mm-rose-gold-203-g-1430-stones-36-34-ct) Hidden $54.64 $29.2K 534.4x 2026-11-07 12:44 UTC [SCHAAP EN CITROEN 179-GRIF-43D other](https://gambatracker.com/items/schaap-en-citroen-179-grif-43d) Hidden $54.64 $11.6K 213.0x 2026-11-03 15:22 UTC [Cartier Tank Francaise other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-tank-francaise) Hidden $54.64 $5,350 97.91x 2026-11-03 16:43 UTC [Louis Vuitton Double Card Case Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-double-card-case-green) Hidden $54.64 $739 13.52x 2026-11-09 19:52 UTC [5 oz Silver Bar - APMEX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-oz-silver-bar-apmex) [Mackay](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Mackay) $54.64 $550 10.07x 2026-11-03 15:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=algorithm-case) [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) Hidden $54.64 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 06:00 UTC [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) Hidden $54.64 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 06:00 UTC [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) Hidden $54.64 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 06:00 UTC [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) Hidden $54.64 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 06:00 UTC [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) Hidden $54.64 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 06:00 UTC [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) [Nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nie) $54.64 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 06:00 UTC [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) Hidden $54.64 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:52 UTC [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) Hidden $54.64 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:52 UTC [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) Hidden $54.64 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:52 UTC [Coin Pusher Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-pusher-token) Hidden $54.64 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.64 | 89.48% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $29.2K (534.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt