--- title: "Ancient Gamer case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ancient Gamer ($3.88) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.33% from 18 items with odds, observed 76.79% over 1,225 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ancient-gamer rendered: 2026-11-11T21:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Ancient Gamer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ancient-gamer) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Ancient Gamer A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ancient-gamer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ancient-gamer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ancient-gamer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ancient-gamer?window=all) Price · $3.88 Advertised RTP · 89.33% · EV $3.47 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.79% · 1,225 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.40% ±27.01 184 openings 7 days · 78.04% ±11.02 1,106 openings 30 days · 76.79% ±10.47 1,225 openings since tracking started · 76.79% ±10.47 1,225 openings 65.5% 94.3% 123.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.33% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (66.32% – 87.26%, 1,225 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ancient-gamer?window=24h) | 184 | 95.40% ±27.0 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ancient-gamer?window=7d) | 1,106 | 78.04% ±11.0 | −2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ancient-gamer) | 1,225 | 76.79% ±10.5 | −2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ancient-gamer?window=all) | 1,225 | 76.79% ±10.5 | −2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,225 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [CRT Monitor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crt-monitor) | 1 in 333 | $80.00 | 6.9% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× | | [DOOM 1993 CD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/doom-1993-cd) | 1 in 167 | $40.00 | 6.9% | 7 | 7.4 | 0.95× | | [Vintage issue of PC Gamer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vintage-issue-of-pc-gamer) | 1 in 133 | $30.00 | 6.5% | 5 | 9.2 | 0.54× | | [VisionTek ATI Radeon HD 3650 1 GB DDR2 AGP Graphics Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/visiontek-ati-radeon-hd-3650-1-gb-ddr2-agp-graphics-card) | 1 in 100 | $25.00 | 7.2% | 10 | 12.3 | 0.82× | | [Logitech TrackMan Marble other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-trackman-marble) | 1 in 100 | $25.00 | 7.2% | 9 | 12.3 | 0.73× | | [Crash Bandicoot Wrath of Cortex PS2 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crash-bandicoot-wrath-of-cortex-ps2) | 1 in 67 | $17.00 | 7.4% | 18 | 18.4 | 0.98× | | [Intel® Pentium® Processor E2160 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/intel-pentium-processor-e2160) | 1 in 67 | $16.00 | 6.9% | 10 | 18.4 | 0.54× | | [Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas PS2 CD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/grand-theft-auto-san-andreas-ps2-cd) | 1 in 50 | $10.00 | 5.8% | 21 | 24.5 | 0.86× | | [Metal Gear Solid CD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/metal-gear-solid-cd) | 1 in 50 | $8.00 | 4.6% | 15 | 24.5 | 0.61× | | [PS/2 Keyboard Mouse Splitter Cable other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ps-2-keyboard-mouse-splitter-cable) | 1 in 40 | $6.99 | 5.0% | 38 | 30.6 | 1.24× | | [StarCraft Shareware CD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/starcraft-shareware-cd) | 1 in 40 | $6.32 | 4.6% | 23 | 30.6 | 0.75× | | [Half-Life CD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/half-life-cd) | 1 in 33 | $4.80 | 4.2% | 35 | 36.8 | 0.95× | | [Age of Empires CD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/age-of-empires-cd) | 1 in 25 | $3.98 | 4.6% | 60 | 49.0 | 1.22× | | [2GB DDR2 Desktop Ram other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2gb-ddr2-desktop-ram) | 1 in 20 | $3.33 | 4.8% | 59 | 61.3 | 0.96× | | [The Sims CD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-sims-cd) | 12.5% | $2.10 | 7.6% | 136 | 153.1 | 0.89× | | [Windows XP Professional Installation Disc other](https://gambatracker.com/items/windows-xp-professional-installation-disc) | 14.9% | $1.77 | 7.6% | 172 | 182.5 | 0.94× | | [40-Pin IDE Drive Ribbon Cables other](https://gambatracker.com/items/40-pin-ide-drive-ribbon-cables) | 20.0% | $0.20 | 1.2% | 280 | 245.0 | 1.14× | | [Molex Cables other](https://gambatracker.com/items/molex-cables) | 24.9% | $0.15 | 1.1% | 324 | 305.6 | 1.06× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=ancient-gamer) [Molex Cables other](https://gambatracker.com/items/molex-cables) Hidden $3.88 $0.15 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [Windows XP Professional Installation Disc other](https://gambatracker.com/items/windows-xp-professional-installation-disc) Hidden $3.88 $1.77 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [Molex Cables other](https://gambatracker.com/items/molex-cables) Hidden $3.88 $0.15 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [Molex Cables other](https://gambatracker.com/items/molex-cables) Hidden $3.88 $0.15 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [The Sims CD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-sims-cd) Hidden $3.88 $2.10 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [40-Pin IDE Drive Ribbon Cables other](https://gambatracker.com/items/40-pin-ide-drive-ribbon-cables) Hidden $3.88 $0.20 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [40-Pin IDE Drive Ribbon Cables other](https://gambatracker.com/items/40-pin-ide-drive-ribbon-cables) Hidden $3.88 $0.20 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [Molex Cables other](https://gambatracker.com/items/molex-cables) Hidden $3.88 $0.15 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [2GB DDR2 Desktop Ram other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2gb-ddr2-desktop-ram) Hidden $3.88 $3.33 0.86x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [40-Pin IDE Drive Ribbon Cables other](https://gambatracker.com/items/40-pin-ide-drive-ribbon-cables) Hidden $3.88 $0.20 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.88 | 89.33% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.33 on average: an expected loss of $10.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt