--- title: "Apple case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Apple ($96.50) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 87.63% over 458 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/apple-tree rendered: 2026-11-11T15:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Apple](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/apple-tree) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Apple A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/apple-tree?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/apple-tree?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/apple-tree) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/apple-tree?window=all) Price · $96.50 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $86.36 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.63% · 458 openings, odds method Variance · 10.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 83.80% ±33.77 362 openings 30 days · 87.63% ±30.02 458 openings since tracking started · 87.63% ±30.02 458 openings -0.5% 85.8% 172.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/apple-tree?window=24h) | 42 | 72.34% ±99.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/apple-tree?window=7d) | 362 | 83.80% ±33.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/apple-tree) | 458 | 87.63% ±30.0 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/apple-tree?window=all) | 458 | 87.63% ±30.0 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 458 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MacBook Pro, Space Black, 16 Inch, M3 Max other](https://gambatracker.com/items/macbook-pro-space-black-16-inch-m3-max) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,800 | 5.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Apple Vision Pro - 256GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-vision-pro-256gb) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,849 | 4.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [iPad Pro, 13-inch, Space Black, 2TB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ipad-pro-13-inch-space-black-2tb) | 1 in 500 | $2,800 | 6.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Apple Watch Hermès Ultra 2 GPS + Cellular, 49mm Natural Titanium Case with Bleu Nuit En Mer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-hermes-ultra-2-gps-cellular-49mm-natural-titanium-case-with-bleu-nuit-en-mer) | 1 in 500 | $1,680 | 3.9% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [iPhone 16 Pro Max, Black Titanium, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-max-black-titanium-256-gb) | 1 in 200 | $1,440 | 8.3% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [iPhone 16 Pro, Natural Titanium, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-natural-titanium-128-gb) | 1 in 200 | $1,200 | 6.9% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [Apple Watch Ultra 2, Titanium Milanese Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-ultra-2-titanium-milanese-loop) | 1 in 133 | $1,080 | 9.4% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× | | [iPhone 16, Teal, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-teal-128-gb) | 1 in 133 | $900 | 7.8% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× | | [iPad Air, 11-inch, Space Gray, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ipad-air-11-inch-space-gray-128-gb) | 1 in 111 | $720 | 7.5% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× | | [AirPods Max, Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/airpods-max-blue) | 1 in 100 | $660 | 7.6% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× | | [Apple Watch Series 10, Alluminum, 42mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-series-10-alluminum-42mm) | 1 in 100 | $480 | 5.6% | 1 | 4.6 | 0.22× | | [Apple TV 4K, Wi-Fi + Ethernet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-tv-4k-wi-fi-ethernet) | 1 in 40 | $310 | 9.0% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.79× | | [Apple Watch SE, Silver, 40mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-se-silver-40mm) | 1 in 100 | $300 | 3.5% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.75× | | [Apple AirPods 4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-airpods-4) | 1 in 100 | $240 | 2.8% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.31× | | [Apple AirTag 4 Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-airtag-4-pack) | 1 in 40 | $140 | 4.1% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× | | [Apple Gift Card - $50 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-gift-card-50) | 10.0% | $50.00 | 5.8% | 45 | 45.8 | 0.98× | | [USB-C Cable other](https://gambatracker.com/items/usb-c-cable) | 10.0% | $5.00 | 0.6% | 50 | 45.8 | 1.09× | | [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) | 67.0% | $1.00 | 0.8% | 310 | 306.9 | 1.01× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MacBook Pro, Space Black, 16 Inch, M3 Max other](https://gambatracker.com/items/macbook-pro-space-black-16-inch-m3-max) Hidden $96.50 $4,800 49.74x 2026-11-05 22:02 UTC [Apple Vision Pro - 256GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-vision-pro-256gb) Hidden $96.50 $3,849 39.89x 2026-11-03 16:45 UTC [iPad Pro, 13-inch, Space Black, 2TB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ipad-pro-13-inch-space-black-2tb) Hidden $96.50 $2,800 29.02x 2026-11-08 22:35 UTC [Apple Watch Hermès Ultra 2 GPS + Cellular, 49mm Natural Titanium Case with Bleu Nuit En Mer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-hermes-ultra-2-gps-cellular-49mm-natural-titanium-case-with-bleu-nuit-en-mer) Hidden $96.50 $1,680 17.41x 2026-11-07 00:14 UTC [Apple Watch Hermès Ultra 2 GPS + Cellular, 49mm Natural Titanium Case with Bleu Nuit En Mer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-hermes-ultra-2-gps-cellular-49mm-natural-titanium-case-with-bleu-nuit-en-mer) Hidden $96.50 $1,680 17.41x 2026-11-06 23:19 UTC [Apple Watch Hermès Ultra 2 GPS + Cellular, 49mm Natural Titanium Case with Bleu Nuit En Mer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-hermes-ultra-2-gps-cellular-49mm-natural-titanium-case-with-bleu-nuit-en-mer) Hidden $96.50 $1,680 17.41x 2026-11-06 16:34 UTC [iPhone 16 Pro Max, Black Titanium, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-max-black-titanium-256-gb) [✪ DubbleuJB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/%E2%9C%AA%20DubbleuJB) $96.50 $1,440 14.92x 2026-11-05 22:20 UTC [Apple Watch Ultra 2, Titanium Milanese Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-ultra-2-titanium-milanese-loop) Hidden $96.50 $1,080 11.19x 2026-11-05 22:20 UTC [iPhone 16, Teal, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-teal-128-gb) Hidden $96.50 $900 9.33x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC [iPhone 16, Teal, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-teal-128-gb) Hidden $96.50 $900 9.33x 2026-11-07 11:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=apple-tree) [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $96.50 $1.00 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $96.50 $1.00 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC [AirPods Max, Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/airpods-max-blue) Hidden $96.50 $660 6.84x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $96.50 $1.00 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC [USB-C Cable other](https://gambatracker.com/items/usb-c-cable) Hidden $96.50 $5.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC [USB-C Cable other](https://gambatracker.com/items/usb-c-cable) [Ncthcfoodie code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Ncthcfoodie%20code%20DGN) $96.50 $5.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $96.50 $1.00 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $96.50 $1.00 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $96.50 $1.00 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC [USB-C Cable other](https://gambatracker.com/items/usb-c-cable) Hidden $96.50 $5.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $96.50 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $4,800 (49.74x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt