--- title: "Aquatic Arcana case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Aquatic Arcana ($3.43) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.42% from 18 items with odds, observed 65.96% over 1,405 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/aquatic-arcana rendered: 2026-11-12T02:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Aquatic Arcana](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/aquatic-arcana) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Aquatic Arcana A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/aquatic-arcana?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/aquatic-arcana?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/aquatic-arcana) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/aquatic-arcana?window=all) Price · $3.43 Advertised RTP · 89.42% · EV $3.07 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.96% · 1,405 openings, odds method Variance · 9.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 50.76% ±50.50 147 openings 7 days · 65.54% ±18.19 1,133 openings 30 days · 65.96% ±16.34 1,405 openings since tracking started · 65.96% ±16.34 1,405 openings -0.5% 50.8% 102.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.42% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (49.63% – 82.30%, 1,405 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/aquatic-arcana?window=24h) | 147 | 50.76% ±50.5 | −1.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/aquatic-arcana?window=7d) | 1,133 | 65.54% ±18.2 | −2.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/aquatic-arcana) | 1,405 | 65.96% ±16.3 | −2.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/aquatic-arcana?window=all) | 1,405 | 65.96% ±16.3 | −2.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,405 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Merfolk of the Pearl Trident (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-of-the-pearl-trident-v-2) | 1 in 286 | $159 | 18.1% | 1 | 4.9 | 0.20× | | [Duel Decks: Merfolk vs. Goblins: Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/duel-decks-merfolk-vs-goblins-full-set) | 1 in 67 | $25.00 | 12.2% | 15 | 21.1 | 0.71× | | [Duel Decks: Merfolk vs. Goblins: 2-Player Duel Playmat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/duel-decks-merfolk-vs-goblins-2-player-duel-playmat) | 1 in 50 | $20.00 | 13.0% | 23 | 28.1 | 0.82× | | [Merfolk of the Pearl Trident other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-of-the-pearl-trident) | 1 in 50 | $20.00 | 13.0% | 23 | 28.1 | 0.82× | | [Gush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gush) | 1 in 50 | $19.70 | 12.8% | 20 | 28.1 | 0.71× | | [The Lost Caverns of Ixalan "Merfolk" Storage Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-lost-caverns-of-ixalan-merfolk-storage-box) | 1 in 29 | $5.00 | 5.7% | 48 | 49.2 | 0.98× | | [Merfolk Token (Blue 1/1 Hexproof) (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-token-blue-1-1-hexproof-v-2) | 1 in 25 | $4.00 | 5.2% | 58 | 56.2 | 1.03× | | [Merfolk Wizard Token (Blue 1/1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-wizard-token-blue-1-1) | 1 in 20 | $3.50 | 5.7% | 77 | 70.3 | 1.10× | | [Merfolk Token (Blue 1/1 Hexproof) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-token-blue-1-1-hexproof) | 1 in 20 | $2.00 | 3.3% | 58 | 70.3 | 0.83× | | [Merfolk Token (Blue 1/1) (V.1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-token-blue-1-1-v-1) | 1 in 20 | $1.70 | 2.8% | 73 | 70.3 | 1.04× | | [Merfolk Relic Token (Foil) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-relic-token-foil) | 1 in 14 | $1.00 | 2.3% | 100 | 100.5 | 1.00× | | [River Merfolk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/river-merfolk) | 1 in 13 | $0.65 | 1.6% | 121 | 105.4 | 1.15× | | [Merfolk Assassin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-assassin) | 1 in 13 | $0.60 | 1.5% | 79 | 105.4 | 0.75× | | [Merfolk Trickster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-trickster) | 1 in 13 | $0.26 | 0.6% | 123 | 105.4 | 1.17× | | [Night of the Flying Merfolk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/night-of-the-flying-merfolk) | 10.0% | $0.20 | 0.7% | 158 | 140.5 | 1.12× | | [Merfolk Sovereign other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-sovereign) | 10.0% | $0.17 | 0.6% | 145 | 140.5 | 1.03× | | [Merfolk Branchwalker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-branchwalker) | 10.0% | $0.15 | 0.5% | 132 | 140.5 | 0.94× | | [Darting Merfolk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/darting-merfolk) | 10.0% | $0.10 | 0.3% | 151 | 140.5 | 1.07× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=aquatic-arcana) [Merfolk Assassin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-assassin) Hidden $3.43 $0.60 0.17x 2026-11-12 00:19 UTC [Night of the Flying Merfolk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/night-of-the-flying-merfolk) Hidden $3.43 $0.20 0.06x 2026-11-12 00:19 UTC [Night of the Flying Merfolk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/night-of-the-flying-merfolk) Hidden $3.43 $0.20 0.06x 2026-11-12 00:19 UTC [Merfolk Branchwalker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-branchwalker) Hidden $3.43 $0.15 0.04x 2026-11-12 00:19 UTC [River Merfolk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/river-merfolk) Hidden $3.43 $0.65 0.19x 2026-11-12 00:19 UTC [River Merfolk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/river-merfolk) [deja vu](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/deja%20vu) $3.43 $0.65 0.19x 2026-11-12 00:19 UTC [Night of the Flying Merfolk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/night-of-the-flying-merfolk) Hidden $3.43 $0.20 0.06x 2026-11-12 00:05 UTC [Darting Merfolk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/darting-merfolk) Hidden $3.43 $0.10 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:05 UTC [Darting Merfolk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/darting-merfolk) Hidden $3.43 $0.10 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:05 UTC [Merfolk Token (Blue 1/1 Hexproof) (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merfolk-token-blue-1-1-hexproof-v-2) Hidden $3.43 $4.00 1.17x 2026-11-12 00:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.43 | 89.42% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.42 on average: an expected loss of $10.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt