--- title: "Baggy case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Baggy ($496.59) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 3.27% over 87 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baggy rendered: 2026-11-11T14:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Baggy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baggy) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Baggy A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baggy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baggy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baggy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baggy?window=all) Price · $496.59 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $444.44 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 3.27% · 87 openings, odds method Variance · 84.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 235 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 72 openings · below min 30 days · 87 openings · below min since tracking started · 87 openings · below min -0.5% 108.3% 217.0% **Small sample.** 87 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baggy?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baggy?window=7d) | 72 | 3.53% ±212.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baggy) | 87 | 3.27% ±193.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baggy?window=all) | 87 | 3.27% ±193.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Hermès Teddy Kelly 20 Chamois Shearling and Swift Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-teddy-kelly-20-chamois-shearling-and-swift-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $82K | 13.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès "Quelle Idolle" Kelly Doll Bleu Frida and Rose Extreme Swift Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-quelle-idolle-kelly-doll-bleu-frida-and-rose-extreme-swift-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $74.3K | 11.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Kelly Sellier 20 Clouté Black Box Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-kelly-sellier-20-cloute-black-box-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $69.3K | 11.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Kelly Cut Bougainvillea Shiny Porosus Crocodile Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-kelly-cut-bougainvillea-shiny-porosus-crocodile-gold-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $38K | 6.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Kelly Sellier 20 Mauve Pale Epsom Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-kelly-sellier-20-mauve-pale-epsom-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $38K | 6.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Custom Zebra Swarovski Crystal Hermès Kelly Sellier 32 Black Epsom Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/custom-zebra-swarovski-crystal-hermes-kelly-sellier-32-black-epsom-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $35.8K | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Special Order (HSS) Birkin 25 Black and Rose Azalee Chèvre Brushed Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-special-order-hss-birkin-25-black-and-rose-azalee-chevre-brushed-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $35.2K | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Special Order (HSS) Birkin 25 Bleu Hydra and Bleu Saphir Chèvre Brushed Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-special-order-hss-birkin-25-bleu-hydra-and-bleu-saphir-chevre-brushed-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $33.5K | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Special Order (HSS) Kelly Sellier 20 Rose Azalee and Lime Epsom Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-special-order-hss-kelly-sellier-20-rose-azalee-and-lime-epsom-gold-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $33.5K | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Special Order (HSS) Kelly Retourne 25 Ebene and Craie Togo Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-special-order-hss-kelly-retourne-25-ebene-and-craie-togo-gold-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $33.5K | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Vintage Hermès Kelly Sellier 32 Black Shiny Porosus Crocodile Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vintage-hermes-kelly-sellier-32-black-shiny-porosus-crocodile-gold-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $33K | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Quadrille Kelly Sellier 25 Black Swift and Bleu Saphir Toile Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-quadrille-kelly-sellier-25-black-swift-and-bleu-saphir-toile-gold-hardware) | 1 in 1,408 | $31.4K | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Special Order (HSS) Tri-color Birkin 30 Bleu Aztec, Soufre and Rouge Vif Chevre Brushed Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-special-order-hss-tri-color-birkin-30-bleu-aztec-soufre-and-rouge-vif-chevre-brushed-gold-hardware) | 1 in 1,370 | $30.3K | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Kelly Sellier 28 Bleu Celeste Epsom Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-kelly-sellier-28-bleu-celeste-epsom-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 1,333 | $29.1K | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Shopping Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-shopping-bag) | 15.0% | $80.00 | 2.7% | 9 | 13.0 | 0.69× | | [Leather Protector Spray other](https://gambatracker.com/items/leather-protector-spray) | 20.0% | $20.00 | 0.9% | 22 | 17.4 | 1.26× | | [Apple Brand Garde Rain & Stain Water Repellent other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-brand-garde-rain-and-stain-water-repellent) | 20.0% | $13.50 | 0.6% | 17 | 17.4 | 0.98× | | [Zipper Slider other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zipper-slider) | 44.0% | $0.63 | 0.1% | 39 | 38.3 | 1.02× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=baggy) [Zipper Slider other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zipper-slider) Hidden $497 $0.63 0.00x 2026-11-06 06:34 UTC [Apple Brand Garde Rain & Stain Water Repellent other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-brand-garde-rain-and-stain-water-repellent) Hidden $497 $13.50 0.03x 2026-11-06 06:34 UTC [Zipper Slider other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zipper-slider) Hidden $497 $0.63 0.00x 2026-11-06 06:34 UTC [Leather Protector Spray other](https://gambatracker.com/items/leather-protector-spray) Hidden $497 $20.00 0.04x 2026-11-06 06:34 UTC [Leather Protector Spray other](https://gambatracker.com/items/leather-protector-spray) Hidden $497 $20.00 0.04x 2026-11-06 06:34 UTC [Zipper Slider other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zipper-slider) [Arrrbaccos](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Arrrbaccos) $497 $0.63 0.00x 2026-11-06 06:34 UTC [Apple Brand Garde Rain & Stain Water Repellent other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-brand-garde-rain-and-stain-water-repellent) Hidden $497 $13.50 0.03x 2026-11-06 06:32 UTC [Zipper Slider other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zipper-slider) Hidden $497 $0.63 0.00x 2026-11-06 06:32 UTC [Apple Brand Garde Rain & Stain Water Repellent other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-brand-garde-rain-and-stain-water-repellent) Hidden $497 $13.50 0.03x 2026-11-06 06:32 UTC [Apple Brand Garde Rain & Stain Water Repellent other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-brand-garde-rain-and-stain-water-repellent) Hidden $497 $13.50 0.03x 2026-11-06 06:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $497 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt