---
title: "Baller case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Baller ($343.75) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 19 items with odds, observed 54.51% over 52 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baller
rendered: 2026-11-12T06:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baller)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Baller

A box on Cases.gg (Luxury), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baller?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baller?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baller) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baller?window=all)

Price · $343.75

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $307.66 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 54.51% · 52 openings, odds method

Variance · 14.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 16 openings · below min

30 days · 52 openings · below min

since tracking started · 52 openings · below min

-0.5% 129.3% 259.0%

**Small sample.** 52 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baller?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baller?window=7d) | 16 | 71.89% ±186.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baller) | 52 | 54.51% ±103.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baller?window=all) | 52 | 54.51% ±103.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph White Dial 39mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/audemars-piguet-royal-oak-chronograph-white-dial-39mm) | 1 in 2,000 | $35K | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Louis Vuitton x NBA Christopher MM Backpack Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-nba-christopher-mm-backpack-blue) | 1 in 2,000 | $25.9K | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Louis Vuitton x Supreme Christopher Backpack Epi PM Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-supreme-christopher-backpack-epi-pm-red) | 1 in 667 | $12.3K | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Jordan 1 Retro High Dior (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-dior-us-8) | 1 in 667 | $10.2K | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Cartier Santos De Cartier White Dial other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-santos-de-cartier-white-dial) | 1 in 667 | $8,300 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Jordan 1 Retro High Off-White Chicago (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-off-white-chicago-us-8) | 1 in 400 | $5,853 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Bearbrick x BAPE Camo Shark 1000% Set of 2 Gold/Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-bape-camo-shark-1000-set-of-2-gold-silver) | 1 in 400 | $4,895 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Kith x Versace Reversible Down Jacket Black (EU 48) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-x-versace-reversible-down-jacket-black-eu-48) | 1 in 333 | $4,565 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Gucci Dionysus Shoulder Bag Small GG Supreme Canvas Beige/Ebony other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-dionysus-shoulder-bag-small-gg-supreme-canvas-beige-ebony) | 1 in 400 | $3,700 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Travis Scott Reverse Mocha (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-sp-travis-scott-reverse-mocha-us-11) | 1 in 143 | $2,160 | 4.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Yeezy Supply Nylon Slipper Graphite (EU 45) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yeezy-supply-nylon-slipper-graphite-eu-45) | 1 in 125 | $1,485 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [BAPE Type 2 Bapex #1 Watch Silver/Black/Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-2-bapex-1-watch-silver-black-green) | 1 in 67 | $1,300 | 6.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Balenciaga Men's Tat Baggy Sweatpants Beige/Brown (XS) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-mens-tat-baggy-sweatpants-beige-brown-xs) | 1 in 100 | $1,216 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Dior DIORCLUB M1U Sunglasses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dior-diorclub-m1u-sunglasses) | 1 in 67 | $825 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Stussy Sport Zip Hoodie Washed Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stussy-sport-zip-hoodie-washed-black-us-m) | 1 in 50 | $620 | 4.0% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.88× |
| [Kith USA Basketball Dream Team Vintage Tee Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-usa-basketball-dream-team-vintage-tee-black-us-m) | 1 in 40 | $602 | 4.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [BAPE 1st Camo Shark Full Zip Hoodie ( L ) Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-1st-camo-shark-full-zip-hoodie-l-green) | 1 in 50 | $600 | 3.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [Travis Scott x McDonald's Crew T-shirt Red (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-mcdonalds-crew-t-shirt-red-us-xl) | 51.4% | $89.00 | 14.9% | 31 | 26.7 | 1.16× |
| [Fear of God Essentials Hoodie (2022) Dark Oatmeal (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-hoodie-2022-dark-oatmeal-us-l) | 35.0% | $71.00 | 8.1% | 15 | 18.2 | 0.82× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Travis Scott Reverse Mocha (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-sp-travis-scott-reverse-mocha-us-11) Hidden $344 $2,160 6.28x 2026-11-08 11:47 UTC

[BAPE Type 2 Bapex #1 Watch Silver/Black/Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-2-bapex-1-watch-silver-black-green) Hidden $344 $1,300 3.78x 2026-11-04 14:39 UTC

[Stussy Sport Zip Hoodie Washed Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stussy-sport-zip-hoodie-washed-black-us-m) Hidden $344 $620 1.80x 2026-11-10 00:16 UTC

[Stussy Sport Zip Hoodie Washed Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stussy-sport-zip-hoodie-washed-black-us-m) [Chavlin Exer](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chavlin%20Exer) $344 $620 1.80x 2026-11-04 14:39 UTC

[Stussy Sport Zip Hoodie Washed Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stussy-sport-zip-hoodie-washed-black-us-m) Hidden $344 $620 1.80x 2026-11-04 14:39 UTC

[BAPE 1st Camo Shark Full Zip Hoodie ( L ) Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-1st-camo-shark-full-zip-hoodie-l-green) Hidden $344 $600 1.75x 2026-11-04 14:39 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=baller)

[Travis Scott x McDonald's Crew T-shirt Red (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-mcdonalds-crew-t-shirt-red-us-xl) Hidden $344 $89.00 0.26x 2026-11-10 00:17 UTC

[Travis Scott x McDonald's Crew T-shirt Red (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-mcdonalds-crew-t-shirt-red-us-xl) Hidden $344 $89.00 0.26x 2026-11-10 00:17 UTC

[Travis Scott x McDonald's Crew T-shirt Red (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-mcdonalds-crew-t-shirt-red-us-xl) Hidden $344 $89.00 0.26x 2026-11-10 00:17 UTC

[Travis Scott x McDonald's Crew T-shirt Red (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-mcdonalds-crew-t-shirt-red-us-xl) [Oliveira16](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oliveira16) $344 $89.00 0.26x 2026-11-10 00:17 UTC

[Travis Scott x McDonald's Crew T-shirt Red (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-mcdonalds-crew-t-shirt-red-us-xl) Hidden $344 $89.00 0.26x 2026-11-10 00:16 UTC

[Travis Scott x McDonald's Crew T-shirt Red (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-mcdonalds-crew-t-shirt-red-us-xl) Hidden $344 $89.00 0.26x 2026-11-10 00:16 UTC

[Travis Scott x McDonald's Crew T-shirt Red (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-mcdonalds-crew-t-shirt-red-us-xl) Hidden $344 $89.00 0.26x 2026-11-10 00:16 UTC

[Stussy Sport Zip Hoodie Washed Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stussy-sport-zip-hoodie-washed-black-us-m) Hidden $344 $620 1.80x 2026-11-10 00:16 UTC

[Travis Scott x McDonald's Crew T-shirt Red (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-mcdonalds-crew-t-shirt-red-us-xl) Hidden $344 $89.00 0.26x 2026-11-10 00:16 UTC

[Fear of God Essentials Hoodie (2022) Dark Oatmeal (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-hoodie-2022-dark-oatmeal-us-l) [Oliveira16](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oliveira16) $344 $71.00 0.21x 2026-11-10 00:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $344 | 89.50% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $2,160 (6.28x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt