--- title: "Bankai Breakthrough case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bankai Breakthrough ($17.23) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.46% from 18 items with odds, observed 70.54% over 264 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bankai-breakthrough rendered: 2026-11-12T12:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Bankai Breakthrough](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bankai-breakthrough) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Bankai Breakthrough A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bankai-breakthrough?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bankai-breakthrough?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bankai-breakthrough) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bankai-breakthrough?window=all) Price · $17.23 Advertised RTP · 89.46% · EV $15.41 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.54% · 264 openings, odds method Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 74.25% ±39.93 169 openings 30 days · 70.54% ±31.95 264 openings since tracking started · 70.54% ±31.95 264 openings -0.5% 95.0% 190.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bankai-breakthrough?window=24h) | 14 | 50.89% ±138.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bankai-breakthrough?window=7d) | 169 | 74.25% ±39.9 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bankai-breakthrough) | 264 | 70.54% ±31.9 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bankai-breakthrough?window=all) | 264 | 70.54% ±31.9 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 264 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Funko Pop! Animation Bleach Ichigo Kurosaki (Hollow) (Black and White) Gamestop Exclusive Figure #96 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-bleach-ichigo-kurosaki-hollow-black-and-white-gamestop-exclusive-figure-96) | 1 in 1,000 | $795 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [BLEACH Manga Box Set 3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-manga-box-set-3) | 1 in 400 | $350 | 5.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [BLEACH - Ichigo Kurosaki Precious G.E.M. Series Figure (Thousand-Year Blood War Ver.) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-ichigo-kurosaki-precious-g-e-m-series-figure-thousand-year-blood-war-ver) | 1 in 500 | $320 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [BLEACH - Ichimaru Gin G.E.M. Series Figure (Re-run) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-ichimaru-gin-g-e-m-series-figure-re-run) | 1 in 500 | $320 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [BLEACH Manga Box Set 1 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-manga-box-set-1) | 1 in 400 | $275 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [BLEACH - Shihouin Yoruichi G.E.M. Series Figure (Re-run) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-shihouin-yoruichi-g-e-m-series-figure-re-run) | 1 in 500 | $267 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [BLEACH Manga Box Set 2 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-manga-box-set-2) | 1 in 400 | $265 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [BLEACH - Tensazangetsu Proplica Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-tensazangetsu-proplica-replica) | 1 in 400 | $205 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [BLEACH - Ichigo Soul Reaper Fleece Hoodie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-ichigo-soul-reaper-fleece-hoodie) | 1 in 33 | $65.00 | 12.7% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.14× | | [BLEACH - Thousand-Year Blood War Part 2 - Blu-ray - Limited Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-thousand-year-blood-war-part-2-blu-ray-limited-edition) | 1 in 33 | $62.00 | 12.1% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.14× | | [BLEACH - Group Black & Rock Throw Blanket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-group-black-and-rock-throw-blanket) | 1 in 33 | $40.00 | 7.8% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× | | [BLEACH - Kisuke Bucket Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-kisuke-bucket-hat) | 1 in 33 | $30.00 | 5.8% | 4 | 7.9 | 0.51× | | [BLEACH - Ichigo Portrait T-shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-ichigo-portrait-t-shirt) | 1 in 20 | $20.00 | 6.5% | 19 | 13.2 | 1.44× | | [BLEACH - Ichigo Funko POP! (Getsuga Ver.) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-ichigo-funko-pop-getsuga-ver) | 1 in 20 | $15.00 | 4.9% | 12 | 13.2 | 0.91× | | [Funko Pop! Animation: Bleach - Kon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-bleach-kon) | 1 in 13 | $10.00 | 4.9% | 13 | 19.8 | 0.66× | | [Funko Pop! Keychain: Bleach - Ichigo Kurosaki other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-keychain-bleach-ichigo-kurosaki) | 22.5% | $3.00 | 4.4% | 64 | 59.4 | 1.08× | | [Ichigo Soul Reaper Badge Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ichigo-soul-reaper-badge-keychain) | 22.5% | $2.25 | 3.3% | 67 | 59.4 | 1.13× | | [BLEACH - Ichigo Auto Decal other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-ichigo-auto-decal) | 23.8% | $2.00 | 3.1% | 59 | 62.8 | 0.94× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 09:09 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=bankai-breakthrough) [Funko Pop! Animation: Bleach - Kon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-bleach-kon) Hidden $17.23 $10.00 0.58x 2026-11-12 06:24 UTC [BLEACH - Ichigo Auto Decal other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-ichigo-auto-decal) Hidden $17.23 $2.00 0.12x 2026-11-12 06:24 UTC [BLEACH - Group Black & Rock Throw Blanket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-group-black-and-rock-throw-blanket) Hidden $17.23 $40.00 2.32x 2026-11-12 06:24 UTC [Ichigo Soul Reaper Badge Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ichigo-soul-reaper-badge-keychain) [AoniAZK™ @bandit](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/AoniAZK%E2%84%A2%20%40bandit) $17.23 $2.25 0.13x 2026-11-12 06:24 UTC [Funko Pop! Keychain: Bleach - Ichigo Kurosaki other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-keychain-bleach-ichigo-kurosaki) Hidden $17.23 $3.00 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Funko Pop! Keychain: Bleach - Ichigo Kurosaki other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-keychain-bleach-ichigo-kurosaki) Hidden $17.23 $3.00 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [BLEACH - Ichigo Auto Decal other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-ichigo-auto-decal) Hidden $17.23 $2.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [BLEACH - Ichigo Portrait T-shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bleach-ichigo-portrait-t-shirt) Hidden $17.23 $20.00 1.16x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Funko Pop! Keychain: Bleach - Ichigo Kurosaki other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-keychain-bleach-ichigo-kurosaki) Hidden $17.23 $3.00 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Funko Pop! Keychain: Bleach - Ichigo Kurosaki other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-keychain-bleach-ichigo-kurosaki) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $17.23 $3.00 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.23 | 89.46% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.46 on average: an expected loss of $10.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt