--- title: "BAPE case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BAPE ($804.25) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 16.39% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bape rendered: 2026-11-11T19:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [BAPE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bape) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · BAPE A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bape?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bape?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bape) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bape?window=all) Price · $804.25 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $719.80 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 16.39% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 113.5% 227.5% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bape?window=24h) | 6 | 16.39% ±210.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bape?window=7d) | 6 | 16.39% ±210.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bape) | 6 | 16.39% ±210.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bape?window=all) | 6 | 16.39% ±210.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [A Bathing Ape Bape Sta Low Kanye West College Dropout US M 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/a-bathing-ape-bape-sta-low-kanye-west-college-dropout-us-m-9) | 1 in 400 | $20.4K | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Bearbrick x BAPE x Levi's 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-bape-x-levis-1000) | 1 in 303 | $18.1K | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Casio G-Shock Mr-G MRGB2000BS-3A other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-mr-g-mrgb2000bs-3a) | 1 in 200 | $16.4K | 11.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Bearbrick x BAPE x READYMADE 100% & 1000% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-bape-x-readymade-100-and-1000-set) | 1 in 125 | $5,520 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [BAPE x Canada Goose x Concepts Expedition Jacket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-x-canada-goose-x-concepts-expedition-jacket) | 1 in 50 | $5,040 | 14.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Bearbrick x BAPE Camo Shark 1000% Set of 2 Gold/Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-bape-camo-shark-1000-set-of-2-gold-silver) | 1 in 125 | $4,895 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [BAPE x Comme des Garcons Osaka Exclusive Varsity Jacket Black US XL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-x-comme-des-garcons-osaka-exclusive-varsity-jacket-black-us-xl) | 1 in 111 | $4,080 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Bearbrick x BAPE x Hajime Sorayama Baby Milo 1000% 2x Set Gold/Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-bape-x-hajime-sorayama-baby-milo-1000-2x-set-gold-silver) | 1 in 100 | $3,240 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [BAPE x Toyqube Baby Milo Wooden Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-x-toyqube-baby-milo-wooden-figure) | 1 in 100 | $2,746 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [adidas NMD R1 Bape Olive Camo (Us Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-bape-olive-camo-us-mens-4-5) | 1 in 50 | $1,920 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) | 1 in 29 | $1,350 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [BAPE x Woolrich Arctic Parka Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-x-woolrich-arctic-parka-red) | 1 in 50 | $1,330 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [BAPE Type 2 Bapex #1 Watch Silver/Black/Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-2-bapex-1-watch-silver-black-green) | 1 in 40 | $1,300 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [BAPE ABC Camo Beach Shorts (SS23) Pink other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-abc-camo-beach-shorts-ss23-pink) | 12.5% | $400 | 6.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [BAPE Color Camo Beach Towel (SS22) Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-color-camo-beach-towel-ss22-red) | 15.0% | $135 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Vans Sk8-Hi 38 DX Bape Line ABC Camo US M 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vans-sk8-hi-38-dx-bape-line-abc-camo-us-m-9) | 12.5% | $98.00 | 1.7% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [BAPE 1st Camo Cordura Multi Pouch Yellow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-1st-camo-cordura-multi-pouch-yellow) | 20.0% | $69.00 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [BAPE Beach Japan 2022 Exclusive Pack Towel White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-beach-japan-2022-exclusive-pack-towel-white) | 22.5% | $28.00 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=bape) [Vans Sk8-Hi 38 DX Bape Line ABC Camo US M 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vans-sk8-hi-38-dx-bape-line-abc-camo-us-m-9) Hidden $804 $98.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [BAPE ABC Camo Beach Shorts (SS23) Pink other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-abc-camo-beach-shorts-ss23-pink) Hidden $804 $400 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [BAPE Beach Japan 2022 Exclusive Pack Towel White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-beach-japan-2022-exclusive-pack-towel-white) Hidden $804 $28.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [BAPE 1st Camo Cordura Multi Pouch Yellow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-1st-camo-cordura-multi-pouch-yellow) Hidden $804 $69.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [Vans Sk8-Hi 38 DX Bape Line ABC Camo US M 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vans-sk8-hi-38-dx-bape-line-abc-camo-us-m-9) Hidden $804 $98.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [Vans Sk8-Hi 38 DX Bape Line ABC Camo US M 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vans-sk8-hi-38-dx-bape-line-abc-camo-us-m-9) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $804 $98.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $804 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt