---
title: "Baseball case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Baseball ($77.92) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 120.43% over 62 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baseball
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Baseball](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baseball)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Baseball

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baseball?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baseball?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baseball) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baseball?window=all)

Price · $77.92

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $69.74 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 120.43% · 62 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 62 openings · below min

30 days · 62 openings · below min

since tracking started · 62 openings · below min

81.0% 232.2% 383.5%

**Small sample.** 62 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baseball?window=24h) | 6 | 258.81% ±124.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baseball?window=7d) | 62 | 120.43% ±38.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baseball) | 62 | 120.43% ±38.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/baseball?window=all) | 62 | 120.43% ±38.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Rickey Henderson Oakland Athletics Autographed Fanatics Authentic Gray Mitchell & Ness Authentic Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rickey-henderson-oakland-athletics-autographed-fanatics-authentic-gray-mitchell-and-ness-authentic-jersey) | 1 in 250 | $1,100 | 6.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Autographed New York Yankees Aaron Judge Fanatics Authentic Baseball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/autographed-new-york-yankees-aaron-judge-fanatics-authentic-baseball) | 1 in 133 | $770 | 8.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Ken Griffey Jr. Seattle Mariners Autographed 1989 Donurss Rated Rookie Silver Ink #33 Beckett Fanatics Witnessed Authenticated Rookie Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ken-griffey-jr-seattle-mariners-autographed-1989-donurss-rated-rookie-silver-ink-33-beckett-fanatics-witnessed-authenticated-rookie-card) | 1 in 118 | $550 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Los Angeles Dodgers Shohei Ohtani Fanatics Authentic 50/50 Club Framed 20" x 24" Season Record Collage with Pieces of Game-Used Dirt and Baseball - Limited Edition of 500 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/los-angeles-dodgers-shohei-ohtani-fanatics-authentic-50-50-club-framed-20-x-24-season-record-collage-with-pieces-of-game-used-dirt-and-baseball-limited-edition-of-500) | 1 in 80 | $330 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [2024 Bowman Chrome Baseball Factory Sealed Hobby Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-bowman-chrome-baseball-factory-sealed-hobby-box) | 1 in 74 | $308 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Autographed New York Yankees Jasson Dominguez Fanatics Authentic Baseball & Mahogany Baseball Display Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/autographed-new-york-yankees-jasson-dominguez-fanatics-authentic-baseball-and-mahogany-baseball-display-case) | 1 in 67 | $262 | 5.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [Men's Philadelphia Phillies Bryce Harper Nike Blue 2024 City Connect Limited Player Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-philadelphia-phillies-bryce-harper-nike-blue-2024-city-connect-limited-player-jersey) | 1 in 57 | $200 | 5.0% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.76× |
| [Men's Houston Astros Alex Bregman Nike Navy City Connect Limited Player Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-houston-astros-alex-bregman-nike-navy-city-connect-limited-player-jersey) | 1 in 57 | $195 | 4.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Men's Washington Nationals Nike Charcoal City Connect Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-washington-nationals-nike-charcoal-city-connect-limited-jersey) | 1 in 50 | $190 | 5.4% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.23× |
| [2024 Bowman Baseball Factory Sealed Display Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-bowman-baseball-factory-sealed-display-box) | 1 in 44 | $175 | 5.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [Men's Colorado Rockies Charlie Blackmon Nike Green City Connect Replica Player Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-colorado-rockies-charlie-blackmon-nike-green-city-connect-replica-player-jersey) | 1 in 50 | $100 | 2.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [Philadelphia Phillies Tokens and Icons Game-Used Baseball Yarn Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/philadelphia-phillies-tokens-and-icons-game-used-baseball-yarn-bracelet) | 1 in 27 | $64.00 | 3.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× |
| [Houston Astros Game-Used 2017 World Series Game 7 Dirt Jar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/houston-astros-game-used-2017-world-series-game-7-dirt-jar) | 1 in 19 | $50.00 | 3.7% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [2020 Philadelphia Phillies Game-Used Baseball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2020-philadelphia-phillies-game-used-baseball) | 1 in 19 | $50.00 | 3.7% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× |
| [Men's Los Angeles Dodgers New Era Navy Cooperstown Collection Wool 59FIFTY Fitted Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-los-angeles-dodgers-new-era-navy-cooperstown-collection-wool-59fifty-fitted-hat) | 1 in 13 | $44.00 | 4.7% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [Men's Houston Astros Mitchell & Ness Cream Overspray Pro Pinch Snapback Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-houston-astros-mitchell-and-ness-cream-overspray-pro-pinch-snapback-hat) | 10.0% | $35.00 | 5.0% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× |
| [Boston Red Sox Fenway Park Game-Used Dirt Bottle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/boston-red-sox-fenway-park-game-used-dirt-bottle) | 22.5% | $25.00 | 8.1% | 11 | 14.0 | 0.79× |
| [New York Yankees Fanatics Authentic Executive Pen with Game-Used Dirt - NY Logo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-york-yankees-fanatics-authentic-executive-pen-with-game-used-dirt-ny-logo) | 30.0% | $20.00 | 8.6% | 20 | 18.6 | 1.08× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Rickey Henderson Oakland Athletics Autographed Fanatics Authentic Gray Mitchell & Ness Authentic Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rickey-henderson-oakland-athletics-autographed-fanatics-authentic-gray-mitchell-and-ness-authentic-jersey) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $77.92 $1,100 14.12x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC

[Autographed New York Yankees Aaron Judge Fanatics Authentic Baseball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/autographed-new-york-yankees-aaron-judge-fanatics-authentic-baseball) Hidden $77.92 $770 9.88x 2026-11-10 06:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=baseball)

[New York Yankees Fanatics Authentic Executive Pen with Game-Used Dirt - NY Logo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-york-yankees-fanatics-authentic-executive-pen-with-game-used-dirt-ny-logo) Hidden $77.92 $20.00 0.26x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC

[Boston Red Sox Fenway Park Game-Used Dirt Bottle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/boston-red-sox-fenway-park-game-used-dirt-bottle) Hidden $77.92 $25.00 0.32x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC

[Boston Red Sox Fenway Park Game-Used Dirt Bottle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/boston-red-sox-fenway-park-game-used-dirt-bottle) Hidden $77.92 $25.00 0.32x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC

[New York Yankees Fanatics Authentic Executive Pen with Game-Used Dirt - NY Logo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-york-yankees-fanatics-authentic-executive-pen-with-game-used-dirt-ny-logo) Hidden $77.92 $20.00 0.26x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC

[New York Yankees Fanatics Authentic Executive Pen with Game-Used Dirt - NY Logo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-york-yankees-fanatics-authentic-executive-pen-with-game-used-dirt-ny-logo) Hidden $77.92 $20.00 0.26x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC

[Rickey Henderson Oakland Athletics Autographed Fanatics Authentic Gray Mitchell & Ness Authentic Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rickey-henderson-oakland-athletics-autographed-fanatics-authentic-gray-mitchell-and-ness-authentic-jersey) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $77.92 $1,100 14.12x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC

[Men's Houston Astros Mitchell & Ness Cream Overspray Pro Pinch Snapback Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-houston-astros-mitchell-and-ness-cream-overspray-pro-pinch-snapback-hat) Hidden $77.92 $35.00 0.45x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[New York Yankees Fanatics Authentic Executive Pen with Game-Used Dirt - NY Logo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-york-yankees-fanatics-authentic-executive-pen-with-game-used-dirt-ny-logo) Hidden $77.92 $20.00 0.26x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[New York Yankees Fanatics Authentic Executive Pen with Game-Used Dirt - NY Logo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-york-yankees-fanatics-authentic-executive-pen-with-game-used-dirt-ny-logo) Hidden $77.92 $20.00 0.26x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[New York Yankees Fanatics Authentic Executive Pen with Game-Used Dirt - NY Logo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-york-yankees-fanatics-authentic-executive-pen-with-game-used-dirt-ny-logo) Hidden $77.92 $20.00 0.26x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $77.92 | 89.50% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $1,100 (14.12x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt