--- title: "Bearbricks case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bearbricks ($112.16) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 19 items with odds, observed 78.64% over 86 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bearbricks rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Bearbricks](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bearbricks) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Bearbricks A box on Cases.gg (Hypebeast), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bearbricks?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bearbricks?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bearbricks) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bearbricks?window=all) Price · $112.16 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $100.38 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.64% · 86 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 86 openings · below min 30 days · 86 openings · below min since tracking started · 86 openings · below min -0.5% 77.0% 154.5% **Small sample.** 86 openings and 7.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bearbricks?window=24h) | 6 | 0.01% ±154.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bearbricks?window=7d) | 86 | 78.64% ±40.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bearbricks) | 86 | 78.64% ±40.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bearbricks?window=all) | 86 | 78.64% ±40.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Bearbrick Pokemon Pikachu Flocky 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-pokemon-pikachu-flocky-1000) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,520 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Bearbrick PHANTACi Jay Chou 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-phantaci-jay-chou-1000) | 1 in 500 | $1,680 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Bearbrick Sex Pistols "Never Mind The Bollocks" 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-sex-pistols-never-mind-the-bollocks-1000) | 1 in 200 | $1,089 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Bearbrick Disney Pixar Monsters, Inc. Sulley 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-disney-pixar-monsters-inc-sulley-1000) | 1 in 200 | $700 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Bearbrick x Tom As Batman & Jerry As The Joker 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-tom-as-batman-and-jerry-as-the-joker-100-and-400-set) | 1 in 56 | $665 | 11.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [Bearbrick Keith Haring #8 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-keith-haring-8-1000) | 1 in 100 | $600 | 6.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [Bearbrick PHANTACi Jay Chou 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-phantaci-jay-chou-100-and-400-set) | 1 in 80 | $500 | 6.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Bearbrick POTR Peko-Chan Milky 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-potr-peko-chan-milky-100-and-400-set) | 1 in 67 | $480 | 7.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [Bearbrick x Disney Woody 1000% B&W Ver. other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-disney-woody-1000-b-and-w-ver) | 1 in 80 | $470 | 5.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [Bearbrick Kansai Yamamoto "Tokyo Pop" 400% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-kansai-yamamoto-tokyo-pop-400) | 1 in 167 | $460 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Bearbrick Riot Cop 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-riot-cop-1000) | 1 in 63 | $430 | 6.9% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× | | [Bearbrick x BAPE Baby Milo(R) Camo Shark 100% & 400% Set Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-bape-baby-milo-r-camo-shark-100-and-400-set-green) | 1 in 63 | $400 | 6.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× | | [Bearbrick x Marvel Spider-Man No Way Home Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-marvel-spider-man-no-way-home-friendly-neighborhood-spider-man-100-and-400-set) | 1 in 67 | $380 | 5.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.55× | | [Bearbrick Jean-Michel Basquiat #8 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-jean-michel-basquiat-8-100-and-400-set) | 1 in 50 | $325 | 6.5% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.33× | | [Bearbrick x Sonic The Hedgehog 400 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-sonic-the-hedgehog-400) | 1 in 48 | $275 | 5.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [Bearbrick Garfield 100% & 400% Set Gold Chrome Ver. other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-garfield-100-and-400-set-gold-chrome-ver) | 1 in 48 | $215 | 4.5% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [Bearbrick Utagawa Kuniyoshi (The Haunted Old Palace at Soma) 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-utagawa-kuniyoshi-the-haunted-old-palace-at-soma-100-and-400-set) | 1 in 43 | $180 | 4.1% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× | | [Bearbrick Pink Panther 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-pink-panther-100-and-400-set) | 1 in 32 | $180 | 5.6% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× | | [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) | 75.0% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 65 | 64.5 | 1.01× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Bearbrick x Tom As Batman & Jerry As The Joker 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-tom-as-batman-and-jerry-as-the-joker-100-and-400-set) Hidden $112 $665 5.93x 2026-11-07 20:21 UTC [Bearbrick Keith Haring #8 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-keith-haring-8-1000) Hidden $112 $600 5.35x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC [Bearbrick Keith Haring #8 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-keith-haring-8-1000) Hidden $112 $600 5.35x 2026-11-07 20:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=bearbricks) [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $112 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $112 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $112 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $112 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $112 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $112 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [Bearbrick Utagawa Kuniyoshi (The Haunted Old Palace at Soma) 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-utagawa-kuniyoshi-the-haunted-old-palace-at-soma-100-and-400-set) Hidden $112 $180 1.60x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $112 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $112 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC [Bearbrick x BAPE Baby Milo(R) Camo Shark 100% & 400% Set Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-bape-baby-milo-r-camo-shark-100-and-400-set-green) Hidden $112 $400 3.57x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $112 | 89.49% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $665 (5.93x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt