---
title: "Bikini Bottom case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Bikini Bottom ($157.05) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 27 items with odds, observed 60.70% over 18 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bikini-bottom
rendered: 2026-11-13T00:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Bikini Bottom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bikini-bottom)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Bikini Bottom

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bikini-bottom?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bikini-bottom?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bikini-bottom) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bikini-bottom?window=all)

Price · $157.05

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $140.55 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 60.70% · 18 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 6 openings · below min

30 days · 18 openings · below min

since tracking started · 18 openings · below min

-0.5% 92.3% 185.0%

**Small sample.** 18 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bikini-bottom?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bikini-bottom?window=7d) | 6 | 39.27% ±145.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bikini-bottom) | 18 | 60.70% ±83.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bikini-bottom?window=all) | 18 | 60.70% ±83.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Microsoft Xbox Series X SpongeBob SquarePants All Star Brawl 2 Console 6570627 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/microsoft-xbox-series-x-spongebob-squarepants-all-star-brawl-2-console-6570627) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,300 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Louis De Guzman Split Screen Spongebob Screen Print (Signed, Edition of 75) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-de-guzman-split-screen-spongebob-screen-print-signed-edition-of-75) | 1 in 500 | $2,760 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Supreme SpongeBob SquarePants Jeff Hamilton Racing Jacket US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-spongebob-squarepants-jeff-hamilton-racing-jacket-us-m) | 1 in 200 | $800 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Kyrie 5 Spongebob Pineapple House US M 11 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kyrie-5-spongebob-pineapple-house-us-m-11) | 1 in 100 | $579 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Supreme SpongeBob SquarePants Castelli Cycling Bib US XL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-spongebob-squarepants-castelli-cycling-bib-us-xl) | 1 in 125 | $569 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Kyrie x Spongebob Squidward Backpack Frosted Spruce other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kyrie-x-spongebob-squidward-backpack-frosted-spruce) | 1 in 200 | $540 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Kyrie 5 Spongebob Patrick US M 11 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kyrie-5-spongebob-patrick-us-m-11) | 1 in 100 | $485 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sprayground x SpongeBob Don't Mess With SpongeBob (DLXSR) Backpack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sprayground-x-spongebob-dont-mess-with-spongebob-dlxsr-backpack) | 1 in 50 | $450 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Youtooz Smirking Spongebob Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/youtooz-smirking-spongebob-vinyl-figure) | 1 in 100 | $407 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [ToyQube Spongebob Squarepants Ice Cream Cone other](https://gambatracker.com/items/toyqube-spongebob-squarepants-ice-cream-cone) | 1 in 67 | $386 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Bearbrick Spongebob 100% & 400% Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-spongebob-100-and-400-set) | 1 in 67 | $275 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SpongeBob Bikini Bottom Patrick Star Ver. Cell Phone Holder other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-bikini-bottom-patrick-star-ver-cell-phone-holder) | 1 in 40 | $227 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [SpongeBob Squarepants Bikini Bottom Buddies Whimsical Plush Sealed Case (6 Blind Box) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-squarepants-bikini-bottom-buddies-whimsical-plush-sealed-case-6-blind-box) | 1 in 40 | $205 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [SpongeBob Best Friends Series Figure Sealed Case (12 Blind Box) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-best-friends-series-figure-sealed-case-12-blind-box) | 1 in 40 | $195 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Labubu The Monsters Spongebob Series Sealed Case (12 Blind Box) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/labubu-the-monsters-spongebob-series-sealed-case-12-blind-box) | 1 in 20 | $195 | 6.9% | 4 | 0.9 | — |
| [Nike Kyrie 5 Spongebob Pineapple House (TD) US 5C other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kyrie-5-spongebob-pineapple-house-td-us-5c) | 1 in 40 | $185 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Supreme SpongeBob/Castelli Racing L/S Tee US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-spongebob-castelli-racing-l-s-tee-us-l) | 1 in 33 | $180 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Crocs Classic Clog SpongeBob SquarePants US M 11 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-classic-clog-spongebob-squarepants-us-m-11) | 1 in 33 | $100 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Supreme SpongeBob SquarePants Castelli Cycling Sock (1 Pack) US L/XL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-spongebob-squarepants-castelli-cycling-sock-1-pack-us-l-xl) | 1 in 33 | $100 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Fuggler Spongebob Squarepants - Spongebob & Patrick Plush Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fuggler-spongebob-squarepants-spongebob-and-patrick-plush-set) | 1 in 20 | $100 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [SpongeBob Best Friends Series Born Together (Secret Edition) Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-best-friends-series-born-together-secret-edition-figure) | 1 in 20 | $86.00 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [SpongeBob SquarePants Bikini Bottom Squidward Vers Storage Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-squarepants-bikini-bottom-squidward-vers-storage-bag) | 1 in 20 | $85.00 | 3.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [Uniqlo x CPFM Spongebob Squarepants UT Graphic T-Shirt US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/uniqlo-x-cpfm-spongebob-squarepants-ut-graphic-t-shirt-us-m) | 10.0% | $80.00 | 5.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [Uniqlo x CPFM Spongebob Squarepants & Patrick Star Plush Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/uniqlo-x-cpfm-spongebob-squarepants-and-patrick-star-plush-set) | 1 in 13 | $64.00 | 3.4% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.48× |
| [SpongeBob Squarepants Bikini Bottom Buddies Whimsical Cool Fish Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-squarepants-bikini-bottom-buddies-whimsical-cool-fish-plush) | 1 in 12 | $53.00 | 3.2% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× |
| [SpongeBob Best Friends Series I'm SpongeBob Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-best-friends-series-im-spongebob-figure) | 10.0% | $46.00 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [SpongeBob Best Friends Series Teeth Cleaning Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-best-friends-series-teeth-cleaning-figure) | 15.0% | $40.00 | 4.3% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 23:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=bikini-bottom)

[SpongeBob Best Friends Series Teeth Cleaning Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-best-friends-series-teeth-cleaning-figure) Hidden $157 $40.00 0.25x 2026-11-10 06:47 UTC

[Uniqlo x CPFM Spongebob Squarepants & Patrick Star Plush Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/uniqlo-x-cpfm-spongebob-squarepants-and-patrick-star-plush-set) Hidden $157 $64.00 0.41x 2026-11-10 06:47 UTC

[Uniqlo x CPFM Spongebob Squarepants UT Graphic T-Shirt US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/uniqlo-x-cpfm-spongebob-squarepants-ut-graphic-t-shirt-us-m) Hidden $157 $80.00 0.51x 2026-11-10 06:47 UTC

[SpongeBob Best Friends Series Teeth Cleaning Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-best-friends-series-teeth-cleaning-figure) Hidden $157 $40.00 0.25x 2026-11-10 06:47 UTC

[SpongeBob Best Friends Series I'm SpongeBob Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spongebob-best-friends-series-im-spongebob-figure) Hidden $157 $46.00 0.29x 2026-11-10 06:47 UTC

[Fuggler Spongebob Squarepants - Spongebob & Patrick Plush Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fuggler-spongebob-squarepants-spongebob-and-patrick-plush-set) [Nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nie) $157 $100 0.64x 2026-11-10 06:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $157 | 89.50% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt