--- title: "Birkin Stash case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Birkin Stash ($2,457.32) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 485.85% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/birkin-stash rendered: 2026-11-11T20:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Birkin Stash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/birkin-stash) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Birkin Stash A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/birkin-stash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/birkin-stash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/birkin-stash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/birkin-stash?window=all) Price · $2,457.32 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $2,199.30 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 485.85% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min 89.0% 360.0% 631.0% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/birkin-stash?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/birkin-stash?window=7d) | 24 | 485.85% ±144.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/birkin-stash) | 24 | 485.85% ±144.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/birkin-stash?window=all) | 24 | 485.85% ±144.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Hermès Birkin 25 Himalaya Niloticus Crocodile Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-birkin-25-himalaya-niloticus-crocodile-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 2,000 | $270K | 6.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [Hermès Birkin 30 Black Matte Alligator Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-birkin-30-black-matte-alligator-gold-hardware) | 1 in 1,250 | $107K | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Hermès "One Two Three and Away We Go" Birkin 25 Multicolor Swift Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-one-two-three-and-away-we-go-birkin-25-multicolor-swift-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 1,000 | $70.2K | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Hermès Birkin 25 Bleu Saphir Taurillion Novillo and Bleu Marine Matte Alligator Touch Rose Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-birkin-25-bleu-saphir-taurillion-novillo-and-bleu-marine-matte-alligator-touch-rose-gold-hardware) | 1 in 1,000 | $49.8K | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Hermès Special Order (HSS) Birkin 30 White and Black Clemence Brushed Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-special-order-hss-birkin-30-white-and-black-clemence-brushed-gold-hardware) | 1 in 800 | $43.8K | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Hermès Birkin 30 En Desordre Gold Togo and Swift Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-birkin-30-en-desordre-gold-togo-and-swift-gold-hardware) | 1 in 286 | $41.4K | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Special Order (HSS) Birkin 30 Gris Mouette and Craie Epsom Brushed Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-special-order-hss-birkin-30-gris-mouette-and-craie-epsom-brushed-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 286 | $37.8K | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Birkin 30 Mauve Pale Clemence Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-birkin-30-mauve-pale-clemence-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 200 | $36.6K | 8.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Birkin 30 Jaune de Naples Novillo Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-birkin-30-jaune-de-naples-novillo-gold-hardware) | 1 in 200 | $31.8K | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Hermès Faubourg Watch GM 18K Rose Gold White Diamonds Rose Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-faubourg-watch-gm-18k-rose-gold-white-diamonds-rose-gold-hardware) | 1 in 100 | $12K | 5.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Van Cleef & Arpels Vintage Alhambra 5 Motif Bracelet 18k Rose Gold & Carnelian other](https://gambatracker.com/items/van-cleef-and-arpels-vintage-alhambra-5-motif-bracelet-18k-rose-gold-and-carnelian) | 1 in 67 | $8,700 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Van Cleef & Arpels Lucky Spring Between the Finger Ring Carnelian, Mother of Pearl & Onyx 18K Rose Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/van-cleef-and-arpels-lucky-spring-between-the-finger-ring-carnelian-mother-of-pearl-and-onyx-18k-rose-gold) | 1 in 50 | $8,100 | 7.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Van Cleef & Arpels Vintage Alhambra Onyx Earrings 18K Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/van-cleef-and-arpels-vintage-alhambra-onyx-earrings-18k-gold) | 1 in 30 | $5,400 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Hermès Small Cape Cod Double Tour Watch Etoupe Swift Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-small-cape-cod-double-tour-watch-etoupe-swift-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 20 | $2,460 | 5.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Louis Vuitton Monogram 2020 Christmas Animation Zippy Wallet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-monogram-2020-christmas-animation-zippy-wallet) | 1 in 20 | $1,500 | 3.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Chanel Mini Crystal Bow CC Stud Earrings Silver Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-mini-crystal-bow-cc-stud-earrings-silver-hardware) | 10.0% | $1,260 | 5.7% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) | 25.0% | $540 | 6.1% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.33× | | [Hermès "Les Cles A Pois" Rose Silk Twilly other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-les-cles-a-pois-rose-silk-twilly) | 45.0% | $294 | 6.0% | 14 | 10.8 | 1.30× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Hermès Birkin 25 Himalaya Niloticus Crocodile Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-birkin-25-himalaya-niloticus-crocodile-palladium-hardware) Hidden $2,457 $270K 109.9x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC [Van Cleef & Arpels Lucky Spring Between the Finger Ring Carnelian, Mother of Pearl & Onyx 18K Rose Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/van-cleef-and-arpels-lucky-spring-between-the-finger-ring-carnelian-mother-of-pearl-and-onyx-18k-rose-gold) Hidden $2,457 $8,100 3.30x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) [Oliveira16](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oliveira16) $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) Hidden $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) Hidden $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) Hidden $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:38 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) [Jaydendown](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Jaydendown) $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) Hidden $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) Hidden $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-08 11:53 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) Hidden $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-08 11:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=birkin-stash) [Hermès "Les Cles A Pois" Rose Silk Twilly other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-les-cles-a-pois-rose-silk-twilly) Hidden $2,457 $294 0.12x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) Hidden $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) Hidden $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [Van Cleef & Arpels Lucky Spring Between the Finger Ring Carnelian, Mother of Pearl & Onyx 18K Rose Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/van-cleef-and-arpels-lucky-spring-between-the-finger-ring-carnelian-mother-of-pearl-and-onyx-18k-rose-gold) Hidden $2,457 $8,100 3.30x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [Hermès "Les Cles A Pois" Rose Silk Twilly other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-les-cles-a-pois-rose-silk-twilly) Hidden $2,457 $294 0.12x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) [Oliveira16](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oliveira16) $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [Hermès "Les Cles A Pois" Rose Silk Twilly other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-les-cles-a-pois-rose-silk-twilly) Hidden $2,457 $294 0.12x 2026-11-10 00:38 UTC [Hermès "Les Cles A Pois" Rose Silk Twilly other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-les-cles-a-pois-rose-silk-twilly) Hidden $2,457 $294 0.12x 2026-11-10 00:38 UTC [Hermès "Les Cles A Pois" Rose Silk Twilly other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-les-cles-a-pois-rose-silk-twilly) Hidden $2,457 $294 0.12x 2026-11-10 00:38 UTC [Chanel Gold CC Multicolor Gripoix Cross Ring other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-gold-cc-multicolor-gripoix-cross-ring) Hidden $2,457 $540 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,457 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $270K (109.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt