--- title: "Black Card case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Card ($1,741.29) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 13 items with odds, observed 0.06% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/black-card rendered: 2026-11-11T19:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Black Card](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/black-card) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Black Card A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/black-card?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/black-card?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/black-card) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/black-card?window=all) Price · $1,741.29 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $1,558.45 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 0.06% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 41.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 257.8% 516.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/black-card?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/black-card?window=7d) | 6 | 0.06% ±515.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/black-card) | 6 | 0.06% ±515.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/black-card?window=all) | 6 | 0.06% ±515.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2025 BMW X5 M60i other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-bmw-x5-m60i) | 1 in 200 | $125K | 39.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patek Philippe 5905/1A Annual Calendar Chronograph 5905 Stainless Steel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patek-philippe-5905-1a-annual-calendar-chronograph-5905-stainless-steel) | 1 in 200 | $84K | 26.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Hermès Birkin 25 Black Ostrich Palladium Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-birkin-25-black-ostrich-palladium-hardware) | 1 in 200 | $46.8K | 15.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Seadoo RXT-X 325 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/seadoo-rxt-x-325) | 1 in 200 | $24.7K | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Louis Vuitton Nike Air Force 1 Low By Virgil Abloh Black Metallic Silver (US Men's 6.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-nike-air-force-1-low-by-virgil-abloh-black-metallic-silver-us-mens-6-5) | 1 in 200 | $13.8K | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Louis Vuitton x NBA Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-nba-basketball) | 1 in 200 | $8,160 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cartier CT0439S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-ct0439s) | 1 in 200 | $4,351 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Goyard Plumet Pouch Black/Natural other](https://gambatracker.com/items/goyard-plumet-pouch-black-natural) | 1 in 200 | $2,460 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Goyard Victoire Wallet Navy Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/goyard-victoire-wallet-navy-blue) | 1 in 200 | $1,730 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [TRINITY BRACELET other](https://gambatracker.com/items/trinity-bracelet) | 1 in 200 | $1,068 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Chocolate Gold Coin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chocolate-gold-coin) | 32.0% | $1.00 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [1 USDT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-usdt) | 31.0% | $1.00 | 0.0% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× | | [United States Dollar Coin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/united-states-dollar-coin) | 32.0% | $1.00 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=black-card) [1 USDT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-usdt) Hidden $1,741 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-09 16:21 UTC [1 USDT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-usdt) Hidden $1,741 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-09 16:21 UTC [United States Dollar Coin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/united-states-dollar-coin) Hidden $1,741 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-09 16:21 UTC [1 USDT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-usdt) Hidden $1,741 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-09 16:21 UTC [Chocolate Gold Coin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chocolate-gold-coin) Hidden $1,741 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-09 16:21 UTC [United States Dollar Coin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/united-states-dollar-coin) [Jaydendown](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Jaydendown) $1,741 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-09 16:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,741 | 89.50% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt