--- title: "Blazing Charizard case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Blazing Charizard ($34.62) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 67.58% over 717 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/blazing-charizard rendered: 2026-11-11T21:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Blazing Charizard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/blazing-charizard) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Blazing Charizard A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/blazing-charizard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/blazing-charizard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/blazing-charizard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/blazing-charizard?window=all) Price · $34.62 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $30.98 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.58% · 717 openings, odds method Variance · 19.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 48 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69 openings · below min 7 days · 69.10% ±35.67 580 openings 30 days · 67.58% ±32.08 717 openings since tracking started · 67.58% ±32.08 717 openings -0.5% 68.5% 137.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/blazing-charizard?window=24h) | 69 | 33.53% ±103.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/blazing-charizard?window=7d) | 580 | 69.10% ±35.7 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/blazing-charizard) | 717 | 67.58% ±32.1 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/blazing-charizard?window=all) | 717 | 67.58% ±32.1 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 717 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charizard EX (XY-P 276) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-ex-xy-p-276) | 1 in 303 | $2,200 | 23.4% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [Charizard Gold Star δ Delta Species (DF 100) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gold-star-delta-species-df-100) | 1 in 133 | $600 | 14.5% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× | | [Charizard GX (HIF SV49) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-hif-sv49) | 1 in 100 | $550 | 17.8% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× | | [Charizard (LC S1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-lc-s1) | 1 in 133 | $500 | 12.1% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× | | [Charizard (CEL BS 4) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-cel-bs-4) | 1 in 50 | $74.00 | 4.8% | 20 | 14.3 | 1.39× | | [Charizard V (BRS 154) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-v-brs-154) | 1 in 50 | $72.00 | 4.6% | 17 | 14.3 | 1.19× | | [Charizard (BS 4) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-bs-4) | 1 in 44 | $63.00 | 4.6% | 22 | 16.1 | 1.36× | | [Celebrations Collection: Lance’s Charizard V other](https://gambatracker.com/items/celebrations-collection-lances-charizard-v) | 1 in 40 | $40.00 | 3.2% | 19 | 17.9 | 1.06× | | [Charizard VSTAR (BRS 174) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-vstar-brs-174) | 1 in 40 | $35.00 | 2.8% | 16 | 17.9 | 0.89× | | [Charizard (EVO 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-evo-11) | 1 in 25 | $16.00 | 2.1% | 27 | 28.7 | 0.94× | | [Charizard VSTAR (SWSH 262) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-vstar-swsh-262) | 1 in 25 | $13.00 | 1.7% | 19 | 28.7 | 0.66× | | [Charizard VMAX (SWSH 261) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-vmax-swsh-261) | 1 in 20 | $11.00 | 1.8% | 29 | 35.9 | 0.81× | | [Charizard V (BRS 017) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-v-brs-017) | 1 in 20 | $11.00 | 1.8% | 42 | 35.9 | 1.17× | | [Charizard V (SWSH 260) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-v-swsh-260) | 1 in 16 | $8.00 | 1.6% | 58 | 44.8 | 1.29× | | [Radiant Charizard (PGO 011) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/radiant-charizard-pgo-011) | 1 in 13 | $5.00 | 1.2% | 53 | 53.8 | 0.99× | | [Charizard (LOR TG03) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-lor-tg03) | 1 in 11 | $4.00 | 1.2% | 59 | 65.7 | 0.90× | | [Charizard (s8b 017) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-s8b-017) | 20.0% | $0.90 | 0.6% | 148 | 143.4 | 1.03× | | [Charizard (PGO 010) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-pgo-010) | 25.0% | $0.32 | 0.3% | 175 | 179.3 | 0.98× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Charizard EX (XY-P 276) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-ex-xy-p-276) [Playful Crow](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Playful%20Crow) $34.62 $2,200 63.55x 2026-11-08 07:10 UTC [Charizard Gold Star δ Delta Species (DF 100) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gold-star-delta-species-df-100) Hidden $34.62 $600 17.33x 2026-11-08 07:07 UTC [Charizard Gold Star δ Delta Species (DF 100) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gold-star-delta-species-df-100) Hidden $34.62 $600 17.33x 2026-11-05 23:32 UTC [Charizard GX (HIF SV49) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-hif-sv49) Hidden $34.62 $550 15.89x 2026-11-09 06:13 UTC [Charizard GX (HIF SV49) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-hif-sv49) Hidden $34.62 $550 15.89x 2026-11-09 05:37 UTC [Charizard GX (HIF SV49) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-hif-sv49) Hidden $34.62 $550 15.89x 2026-11-08 07:07 UTC [Charizard GX (HIF SV49) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-hif-sv49) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/) $34.62 $550 15.89x 2026-11-06 11:01 UTC [Charizard GX (HIF SV49) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-hif-sv49) [Hussain112233](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Hussain112233) $34.62 $550 15.89x 2026-11-04 23:15 UTC [Charizard GX (HIF SV49) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-hif-sv49) Hidden $34.62 $550 15.89x 2026-11-03 02:37 UTC [Charizard GX (HIF SV49) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-hif-sv49) [Axio](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Axio) $34.62 $550 15.89x 2026-11-03 02:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=blazing-charizard) [Charizard (PGO 010) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-pgo-010) Hidden $34.62 $0.32 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Charizard (PGO 010) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-pgo-010) Hidden $34.62 $0.32 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Charizard (PGO 010) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-pgo-010) Hidden $34.62 $0.32 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Charizard (PGO 010) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-pgo-010) Hidden $34.62 $0.32 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Charizard V (BRS 017) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-v-brs-017) Hidden $34.62 $11.00 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Charizard (s8b 017) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-s8b-017) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $34.62 $0.90 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Charizard VSTAR (SWSH 262) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-vstar-swsh-262) Hidden $34.62 $13.00 0.38x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC [Charizard VMAX (SWSH 261) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-vmax-swsh-261) Hidden $34.62 $11.00 0.32x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC [Charizard (LOR TG03) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-lor-tg03) Hidden $34.62 $4.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC [Charizard (s8b 017) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-s8b-017) Hidden $34.62 $0.90 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.62 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $2,200 (63.55x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt