--- title: "BMW Boys case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BMW Boys ($5,688.55) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bmw-boys rendered: 2026-11-11T22:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [BMW Boys](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bmw-boys) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · BMW Boys A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bmw-boys?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bmw-boys?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bmw-boys) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bmw-boys?window=all) Price · $5,688.55 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $5,091.25 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 34 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bmw-boys?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bmw-boys?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bmw-boys) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/bmw-boys?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2024 BMW M4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-bmw-m4) | 1 in 500 | $125K | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2025 BMW X5 M60i other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-bmw-x5-m60i) | 1 in 400 | $125K | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2022 BMW M5 Base other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2022-bmw-m5-base) | 1 in 400 | $115K | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2022 BMW M8 Competition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2022-bmw-m8-competition) | 1 in 400 | $110K | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2024 BMW i5 M60 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-bmw-i5-m60) | 1 in 333 | $109K | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2025 BMW M3 - Base other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-bmw-m3-base) | 1 in 286 | $99.2K | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2022 BMW M3 Base other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2022-bmw-m3-base) | 1 in 167 | $85.2K | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2024 BMW i4 Xdrive40 Gran Coupe other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-bmw-i4-xdrive40-gran-coupe) | 1 in 133 | $79.1K | 11.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2024 BMW 3 Series 330I other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-bmw-3-series-330i) | 1 in 100 | $60K | 11.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2023 BMW X5 Xdrive40i other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2023-bmw-x5-xdrive40i) | 1 in 100 | $57K | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2019 BMW 4 Series 440I Xdrive Gran Coupe other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2019-bmw-4-series-440i-xdrive-gran-coupe) | 1 in 50 | $32.4K | 12.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2004 BMW 330d other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2004-bmw-330d) | 1 in 13 | $2,700 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [1993 BMW 316 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1993-bmw-316) | 1 in 17 | $2,400 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Hot Wheels RLC Exclusive 1991 BMW M3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-rlc-exclusive-1991-bmw-m3) | 12.5% | $72.72 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [BMW M Badge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bmw-m-badge) | 12.5% | $40.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M Pack Hoodie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/m-pack-hoodie) | 15.0% | $35.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M Pack Sweatpants other](https://gambatracker.com/items/m-pack-sweatpants) | 15.0% | $20.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [BMW Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bmw-keychain) | 24.6% | $9.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=bmw-boys) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5,689 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt