--- title: "Box Break case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Box Break ($180.38) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 15 items with odds, observed 54.53% over 122 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/box-break rendered: 2026-11-11T20:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Box Break](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/box-break) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Box Break A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/box-break?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/box-break?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/box-break) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/box-break?window=all) Price · $180.38 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $161.44 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 54.53% · 122 openings, odds method Variance · 31.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 111 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 110 openings · below min 30 days · 122 openings · below min since tracking started · 122 openings · below min -0.5% 81.5% 163.5% **Small sample.** 122 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/box-break?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/box-break?window=7d) | 110 | 57.45% ±105.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/box-break) | 122 | 54.53% ±99.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/box-break?window=all) | 122 | 54.53% ±99.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Evolving Skies 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/evolving-skies-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $20K | 18.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Fusion Strike 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/fusion-strike-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $8,000 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Lost Origin 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/lost-origin-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $7,800 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Brilliant Stars 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/brilliant-stars-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $7,500 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Chilling Reign 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/chilling-reign-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $7,340 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Astral Radiance 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/astral-radiance-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $3,400 | 3.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Silver Tempest 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-tempest-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $3,200 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Twilight Masquerade 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/twilight-masquerade-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $3,000 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Obsidian Flames 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/obsidian-flames-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $2,700 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Paldea Evolved 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/paldea-evolved-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $2,700 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Surging Sparks 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/surging-sparks-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $2,650 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Stellar Crown 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/stellar-crown-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $2,600 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Temporal Forces 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/temporal-forces-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $2,100 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Scarlet & Violet 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/scarlet-and-violet-6-booster-box-case) | 1 in 667 | $2,000 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-enhanced-expansion-pack-booster-box) | 97.9% | $50.00 | 30.3% | 120 | 119.4 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Astral Radiance 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/astral-radiance-6-booster-box-case) Hidden $180 $3,400 18.85x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Stellar Crown 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/stellar-crown-6-booster-box-case) Hidden $180 $2,600 14.41x 2026-11-08 20:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=box-break) [Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-enhanced-expansion-pack-booster-box) Hidden $180 $50.00 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:06 UTC [Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-enhanced-expansion-pack-booster-box) Hidden $180 $50.00 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:06 UTC [Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-enhanced-expansion-pack-booster-box) Hidden $180 $50.00 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:06 UTC [Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-enhanced-expansion-pack-booster-box) Hidden $180 $50.00 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:06 UTC [Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-enhanced-expansion-pack-booster-box) Hidden $180 $50.00 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:06 UTC [Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-enhanced-expansion-pack-booster-box) [Nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nie) $180 $50.00 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:06 UTC [Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-enhanced-expansion-pack-booster-box) Hidden $180 $50.00 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Astral Radiance 6 Booster Box Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/astral-radiance-6-booster-box-case) Hidden $180 $3,400 18.85x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-enhanced-expansion-pack-booster-box) Hidden $180 $50.00 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC [Pokémon GO Enhanced Expansion Pack Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-go-enhanced-expansion-pack-booster-box) Hidden $180 $50.00 0.28x 2026-11-10 07:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $180 | 89.50% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $3,400 (18.85x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt