--- title: "Budgetbeast case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Budgetbeast ($5.76) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.37% from 37 items with odds, observed 88.13% over 4,098 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/budgetbeast rendered: 2026-11-11T17:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Budgetbeast](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/budgetbeast) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Budgetbeast A box on Cases.gg (Budget), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/budgetbeast?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/budgetbeast?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/budgetbeast) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/budgetbeast?window=all) Price · $5.76 Advertised RTP · 89.37% · EV $5.15 from 37 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.13% · 4,098 openings, odds method Variance · 13.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.71% ±44.48 268 openings 7 days · 86.38% ±12.57 3,356 openings 30 days · 88.13% ±11.37 4,098 openings since tracking started · 88.13% ±11.37 4,098 openings 38.5% 83.8% 129.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/budgetbeast?window=24h) | 268 | 83.71% ±44.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/budgetbeast?window=7d) | 3,356 | 86.38% ±12.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/budgetbeast) | 4,098 | 88.13% ±11.4 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/budgetbeast?window=all) | 4,098 | 88.13% ±11.4 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,098 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Travis Scott Black Phantom (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-sp-travis-scott-black-phantom-us-8) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,180 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Jordan Jumpman Jack TR Travis Scott Sail (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-jumpman-jack-tr-travis-scott-sail-us-7) | 1 in 100,000 | $833 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nike SB Dunk Low Concepts Orange Lobster (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-concepts-orange-lobster-us-11) | 1 in 100,000 | $739 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Supreme Bandana Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Heather Grey (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-bandana-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-heather-grey-us-l) | 1 in 20,000 | $666 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Dazzling Blue (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2dazzling-blue-us-10) | 1 in 10,000 | $543 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Travis Scott x McDonald's Cj Smile Hoodie Brown (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-mcdonalds-cj-smile-hoodie-brown-us-xl) | 1 in 10,000 | $500 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Nike SB Dunk Low Green Apple (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-green-apple-us-11) | 1 in 10,000 | $467 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Nike SB Dunk LowSupreme Stars Hyper Royal (2021) (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-lowsupreme-stars-hyper-royal-2021-us-8) | 1 in 10,000 | $445 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low SP Supreme Wheat (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-sp-supreme-wheat-us-8) | 1 in 10,000 | $420 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 White (Travis Scott Cactus Jack Utopia Edition) (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-white-travis-scott-cactus-jack-utopia-edition-us-11) | 1 in 3,333 | $380 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.63× | | [Supreme Chain License Plate Frame Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-chain-license-plate-frame-gold) | 1 in 2,000 | $375 | 3.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.46× | | [Nike Dunk Low Midnight Navy University Blue (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-midnight-navy-university-blue-us-11) | 1 in 2,000 | $216 | 2.1% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [Supreme Bandana Box Logo Tee White (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-bandana-box-logo-tee-white-us-m) | 1 in 2,000 | $150 | 1.5% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.44× | | [Nike Dunk Low Mystic Red Cargo Khaki (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-mystic-red-cargo-khaki-us-9) | 1 in 500 | $100 | 3.9% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.98× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Black White Pebbled Leather (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-black-white-pebbled-leather-us-11) | 1 in 500 | $90.00 | 3.5% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.98× | | [Fear of God Essentials Hoodie Light Heather Grey/Garden Yellow (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-hoodie-light-heather-grey-garden-yellow-us-l) | 1 in 1,000 | $81.00 | 1.6% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× | | [Jordan x Travis Scott T-shirt Brown (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-x-travis-scott-t-shirt-brown-us-m) | 1 in 500 | $81.00 | 3.1% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 Patent Platinum Tint Stadium Green (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-patent-platinum-tint-stadium-green-us-9) | 1 in 500 | $77.00 | 3.0% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.98× | | [Nike Dunk Low Team Gold (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-team-gold-us-8) | 1 in 500 | $70.00 | 2.7% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× | | [Supreme Halftone Lightweight Balaclava Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-halftone-lightweight-balaclava-red) | 1 in 333 | $66.00 | 3.8% | 12 | 12.3 | 0.98× | | [Crocs Classic Clog Minecraft Grass Block (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-classic-clog-minecraft-grass-block-us-mens-10) | 1 in 333 | $57.00 | 3.3% | 13 | 12.3 | 1.06× | | [Supreme Ripstop Keychain Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-ripstop-keychain-black) | 1 in 333 | $55.00 | 3.2% | 15 | 12.3 | 1.22× | | [KAWS x Uniqlo UT Short Sleeve Graphic T-shirt (US Sizing)Black (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kaws-x-uniqlo-ut-short-sleeve-graphic-t-shirt-us-sizing-black-us-xl) | 1 in 250 | $53.00 | 4.1% | 19 | 16.4 | 1.16× | | [KAWS x Uniqlo UT Short Sleeve Graphic T-shirt White (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kaws-x-uniqlo-ut-short-sleeve-graphic-t-shirt-white-us-xl) | 1 in 250 | $48.00 | 3.7% | 19 | 16.4 | 1.16× | | [Supreme ty Beanie Baby Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-ty-beanie-baby-multicolor) | 1 in 200 | $44.00 | 4.3% | 17 | 20.5 | 0.83× | | [100 Thieves x Jujutsu Kaisen Mirror Snapback Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-jujutsu-kaisen-mirror-snapback-hat) | 1 in 200 | $33.00 | 3.2% | 16 | 20.5 | 0.78× | | [Pokemon Center x Van Gogh Museum: Pikachu Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-center-x-van-gogh-museum-pikachu-plush) | 1 in 200 | $31.00 | 3.0% | 25 | 20.5 | 1.22× | | [Jason Freeny XXRAY DC Comics The Flash #04 Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jason-freeny-xxray-dc-comics-the-flash-04-figure) | 1 in 200 | $28.00 | 2.7% | 27 | 20.5 | 1.32× | | [Ford Trucks F-150 Flag Patch Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-trucks-f-150-flag-patch-hat) | 1 in 200 | $28.00 | 2.7% | 23 | 20.5 | 1.12× | | [Attack on Titan Season 2 Distressed Scout Symbol T-shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/attack-on-titan-season-2-distressed-scout-symbol-t-shirt) | 1 in 200 | $24.00 | 2.3% | 17 | 20.5 | 0.83× | | [Mini Shoes Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mini-shoes-keychain) | 1 in 200 | $16.00 | 1.6% | 21 | 20.5 | 1.02× | | [Xbox Socks Gaming Console Logo Adult Crew Socks 1 Pair other](https://gambatracker.com/items/xbox-socks-gaming-console-logo-adult-crew-socks-1-pair) | 1 in 100 | $13.95 | 2.7% | 44 | 41.0 | 1.07× | | [Sony Playstation Embroidered Logo Patch Gaming Icons Youth Flat Bill Hat Multicolored other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sony-playstation-embroidered-logo-patch-gaming-icons-youth-flat-bill-hat-multicolored) | 1 in 67 | $12.95 | 3.8% | 54 | 61.5 | 0.88× | | [3D Mini shoe keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3d-mini-shoe-keychain) | 1 in 50 | $10.00 | 3.9% | 75 | 82.0 | 0.92× | | [Yeezy Box Airpod Case Cover other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yeezy-box-airpod-case-cover) | 1 in 33 | $8.99 | 5.2% | 119 | 122.9 | 0.97× | | [Jordan Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-keychain) | 13.0% | $5.00 | 12.6% | 530 | 532.7 | 0.99× | | [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) | 73.0% | $0.05 | 0.7% | 3,002 | 2990.0 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Nike SB Dunk Low Green Apple (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-green-apple-us-11) Hidden $5.76 $467 81.08x 2026-11-08 16:01 UTC [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 White (Travis Scott Cactus Jack Utopia Edition) (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-white-travis-scott-cactus-jack-utopia-edition-us-11) Hidden $5.76 $380 65.97x 2026-11-08 16:01 UTC [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 White (Travis Scott Cactus Jack Utopia Edition) (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-white-travis-scott-cactus-jack-utopia-edition-us-11) Hidden $5.76 $380 65.97x 2026-11-05 00:03 UTC [Supreme Chain License Plate Frame Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-chain-license-plate-frame-gold) Hidden $5.76 $375 65.10x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [Supreme Chain License Plate Frame Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-chain-license-plate-frame-gold) Hidden $5.76 $375 65.10x 2026-11-03 06:37 UTC [Supreme Chain License Plate Frame Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-chain-license-plate-frame-gold) [Pingvins](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Pingvins) $5.76 $375 65.10x 2026-11-02 23:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=budgetbeast) [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) Hidden $5.76 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) Hidden $5.76 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) Hidden $5.76 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) Hidden $5.76 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) Hidden $5.76 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) [bananchik](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/bananchik) $5.76 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC [Jordan Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-keychain) Hidden $5.76 $5.00 0.87x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) Hidden $5.76 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) Hidden $5.76 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [Jordan Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-keychain) Hidden $5.76 $5.00 0.87x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.76 | 89.37% | 37 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $467 (81.08x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.37 on average: an expected loss of $10.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt