--- title: "Burglary case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Burglary ($116.72) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 12 items with odds, observed 113.76% over 514 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/burglary rendered: 2026-11-11T21:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Burglary](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/burglary) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Burglary A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/burglary?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/burglary?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/burglary) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/burglary?window=all) Price · $116.72 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $104.46 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 113.76% · 514 openings, odds method Variance · 19.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 57 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 113.83% ±40.54 462 openings 30 days · 113.76% ±38.44 514 openings since tracking started · 113.76% ±38.44 514 openings -0.5% 128.5% 257.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/burglary?window=24h) | 16 | 39.14% ±217.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/burglary?window=7d) | 462 | 113.83% ±40.5 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/burglary) | 514 | 113.76% ±38.4 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/burglary?window=all) | 514 | 113.76% ±38.4 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 514 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sapphire and Diamond Pendant other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sapphire-and-diamond-pendant) | 1 in 500 | $7,200 | 13.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [Divas’ Dream Necklace other](https://gambatracker.com/items/divas-dream-necklace) | 1 in 333 | $5,000 | 14.4% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.95× | | [Pearl Lock Bracelet in Silver, Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pearl-lock-bracelet-in-silver-medium) | 1 in 200 | $3,300 | 15.8% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.56× | | [1 Kilo Silver Bar - PAMP Suisse (Serialized) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-kilo-silver-bar-pamp-suisse-serialized) | 1 in 133 | $1,600 | 11.5% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.30× | | [10 gram Gold Bar - PAMP Lady Fortuna Veriscan® (In Assay) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-gram-gold-bar-pamp-lady-fortuna-veriscan-in-assay) | 1 in 133 | $1,500 | 10.8% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× | | [3 ROW HOOP DIAMOND EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLD 0.33CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-row-hoop-diamond-earrings-14k-solid-gold-0-33ctw) | 1 in 133 | $1,050 | 7.5% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× | | [Nitecore P20iX Tactical Flashlight other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nitecore-p20ix-tactical-flashlight) | 1 in 20 | $159 | 7.6% | 27 | 25.7 | 1.05× | | [Amazon Basics Small Safe For Home other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-small-safe-for-home) | 1 in 13 | $135 | 9.7% | 41 | 38.5 | 1.06× | | [Ghost Face Mask With Shroud other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ghost-face-mask-with-shroud) | 10.0% | $30.00 | 2.9% | 55 | 51.4 | 1.07× | | [Motorcycle Balaclava Face Mask other](https://gambatracker.com/items/motorcycle-balaclava-face-mask) | 20.0% | $10.00 | 1.9% | 94 | 102.8 | 0.91× | | [Edward Tools Gooseneck Wrecking Bar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/edward-tools-gooseneck-wrecking-bar) | 25.0% | $9.00 | 2.2% | 134 | 128.5 | 1.04× | | [New Balance Lightweight Running Gloves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-balance-lightweight-running-gloves) | 29.3% | $7.20 | 2.0% | 142 | 150.3 | 0.94× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sapphire and Diamond Pendant other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sapphire-and-diamond-pendant) Hidden $117 $7,200 61.69x 2026-11-07 20:18 UTC [Divas’ Dream Necklace other](https://gambatracker.com/items/divas-dream-necklace) [Kick/PapaGambles $20k+ Rewards](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Kick%2FPapaGambles%20%2420k%2B%20Rewards) $117 $5,000 42.84x 2026-11-07 20:21 UTC [Divas’ Dream Necklace other](https://gambatracker.com/items/divas-dream-necklace) Hidden $117 $5,000 42.84x 2026-11-06 09:26 UTC [Divas’ Dream Necklace other](https://gambatracker.com/items/divas-dream-necklace) Hidden $117 $5,000 42.84x 2026-11-06 09:24 UTC [Pearl Lock Bracelet in Silver, Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pearl-lock-bracelet-in-silver-medium) Hidden $117 $3,300 28.27x 2026-11-07 20:21 UTC [Pearl Lock Bracelet in Silver, Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pearl-lock-bracelet-in-silver-medium) Hidden $117 $3,300 28.27x 2026-11-06 09:20 UTC [Pearl Lock Bracelet in Silver, Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pearl-lock-bracelet-in-silver-medium) Hidden $117 $3,300 28.27x 2026-11-05 22:31 UTC [Pearl Lock Bracelet in Silver, Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pearl-lock-bracelet-in-silver-medium) [mitchdude202](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/mitchdude202) $117 $3,300 28.27x 2026-11-04 21:53 UTC [1 Kilo Silver Bar - PAMP Suisse (Serialized) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-kilo-silver-bar-pamp-suisse-serialized) [Kick/PapaGambles $20k+ Rewards](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Kick%2FPapaGambles%20%2420k%2B%20Rewards) $117 $1,600 13.71x 2026-11-07 20:18 UTC [1 Kilo Silver Bar - PAMP Suisse (Serialized) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-kilo-silver-bar-pamp-suisse-serialized) Hidden $117 $1,600 13.71x 2026-11-06 09:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=burglary) [Edward Tools Gooseneck Wrecking Bar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/edward-tools-gooseneck-wrecking-bar) Hidden $117 $9.00 0.08x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [Motorcycle Balaclava Face Mask other](https://gambatracker.com/items/motorcycle-balaclava-face-mask) Hidden $117 $10.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [Nitecore P20iX Tactical Flashlight other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nitecore-p20ix-tactical-flashlight) Hidden $117 $159 1.36x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [Amazon Basics Small Safe For Home other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-small-safe-for-home) Hidden $117 $135 1.16x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [New Balance Lightweight Running Gloves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-balance-lightweight-running-gloves) Hidden $117 $7.20 0.06x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [Edward Tools Gooseneck Wrecking Bar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/edward-tools-gooseneck-wrecking-bar) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $117 $9.00 0.08x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC [New Balance Lightweight Running Gloves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/new-balance-lightweight-running-gloves) Hidden $117 $7.20 0.06x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC [Amazon Basics Small Safe For Home other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-small-safe-for-home) Hidden $117 $135 1.16x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC [Nitecore P20iX Tactical Flashlight other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nitecore-p20ix-tactical-flashlight) Hidden $117 $159 1.36x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC [Motorcycle Balaclava Face Mask other](https://gambatracker.com/items/motorcycle-balaclava-face-mask) Hidden $117 $10.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $117 | 89.49% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $7,200 (61.69x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt