--- title: "Cartiers Secret case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cartiers Secret ($1,238.19) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 75.70% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cartiers-secret rendered: 2026-11-12T05:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Cartiers Secret](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cartiers-secret) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Cartiers Secret A box on Cases.gg (Luxury), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cartiers-secret?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cartiers-secret?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cartiers-secret) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cartiers-secret?window=all) Price · $1,238.19 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $1,108.18 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.70% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min -0.5% 100.3% 201.0% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cartiers-secret?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cartiers-secret?window=7d) | 24 | 74.44% ±126.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cartiers-secret) | 30 | 75.70% ±112.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cartiers-secret?window=all) | 30 | 75.70% ±112.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Cartier Santions de cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-santions-de-cartier) | 1 in 1,000 | $96.5K | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CARTIER SANTOS DE CARTIER STEEL 40MM (4072) - 20.50CTW FULLY ICED OUT CUSTOM PAVE DIAL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-santos-de-cartier-steel-40mm-4072-20-50ctw-fully-iced-out-custom-pave-dial) | 1 in 1,000 | $40.7K | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cartier Panthere other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-panthere) | 1 in 1,000 | $37.6K | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CARTIER SANTOS DE CARTIER STEEL 40MM (4072) - 20.50CTW FULLY ICED OUT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-santos-de-cartier-steel-40mm-4072-20-50ctw-fully-iced-out) | 1 in 1,000 | $37.5K | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cartier Eyewear Signature C de Cartier Precious rectangular sunglasses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-eyewear-signature-c-de-cartier-precious-rectangular-sunglasses) | 1 in 200 | $10.9K | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Cartier Ballon Bleu 28 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-ballon-bleu-28) | 1 in 200 | $6,999 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [PANTHERE DE CARTIER EARRINGS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/panthere-de-cartier-earrings) | 1 in 200 | $6,600 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Cartier Tank Solo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-tank-solo) | 1 in 100 | $5,885 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Cartier Tank Francaise other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-tank-francaise) | 1 in 67 | $5,350 | 7.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Cartier CT0439S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-ct0439s) | 1 in 67 | $4,351 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [JUSTE UN CLOU EARRINGS Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/juste-un-clou-earrings-cartier) | 1 in 67 | $3,630 | 4.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [CARTIER D'AMOUR NECKLACE, SMALL MODEL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-damour-necklace-small-model) | 1 in 67 | $1,584 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [JUSTE UN CLOU SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/juste-un-clou-single-earring-cartier) | 1 in 67 | $1,166 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [TRINITY BRACELET other](https://gambatracker.com/items/trinity-bracelet) | 1 in 50 | $1,068 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [CARTIER D'AMOUR BRACELET XS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-damour-bracelet-xs) | 1 in 50 | $960 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) | 25.0% | $710 | 16.0% | 12 | 7.5 | 1.60× | | [SIMPLE CARD HOLDER, PANTHÈRE DE CARTIER other](https://gambatracker.com/items/simple-card-holder-panthere-de-cartier) | 25.0% | $430 | 9.7% | 3 | 7.5 | 0.40× | | [SIMPLE CARD HOLDER, C DE CARTIER other](https://gambatracker.com/items/simple-card-holder-c-de-cartier) | 35.6% | $415 | 13.3% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Cartier Tank Francaise other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-tank-francaise) Hidden $1,238 $5,350 4.32x 2026-11-06 16:53 UTC [Cartier CT0439S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-ct0439s) Hidden $1,238 $4,351 3.51x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [JUSTE UN CLOU EARRINGS Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/juste-un-clou-earrings-cartier) [Chavlin Exer](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chavlin%20Exer) $1,238 $3,630 2.93x 2026-11-04 14:44 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) [Oliveira16](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oliveira16) $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:53 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=cartiers-secret) [SIMPLE CARD HOLDER, C DE CARTIER other](https://gambatracker.com/items/simple-card-holder-c-de-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $415 0.34x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [SIMPLE CARD HOLDER, C DE CARTIER other](https://gambatracker.com/items/simple-card-holder-c-de-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $415 0.34x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [SIMPLE CARD HOLDER, C DE CARTIER other](https://gambatracker.com/items/simple-card-holder-c-de-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $415 0.34x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [SIMPLE CARD HOLDER, C DE CARTIER other](https://gambatracker.com/items/simple-card-holder-c-de-cartier) [Oliveira16](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oliveira16) $1,238 $415 0.34x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [Cartier CT0439S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cartier-ct0439s) Hidden $1,238 $4,351 3.51x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [SIMPLE CARD HOLDER, C DE CARTIER other](https://gambatracker.com/items/simple-card-holder-c-de-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $415 0.34x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC [LOVE SINGLE EARRING Cartier other](https://gambatracker.com/items/love-single-earring-cartier) Hidden $1,238 $710 0.57x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,238 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $5,350 (4.32x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt