--- title: "Celestial Guardian case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Celestial Guardian ($62.09) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 73.73% over 150 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/celestial-guardian rendered: 2026-11-11T18:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Celestial Guardian](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/celestial-guardian) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Celestial Guardian A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/celestial-guardian?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/celestial-guardian?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/celestial-guardian) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/celestial-guardian?window=all) Price · $62.09 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $55.56 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.73% · 150 openings, odds method Variance · 38.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 122 openings · below min 30 days · 150 openings · below min since tracking started · 150 openings · below min -0.5% 248.8% 498.0% **Small sample.** 150 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/celestial-guardian?window=24h) | 6 | 1.16% ±496.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/celestial-guardian?window=7d) | 122 | 81.63% ±110.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/celestial-guardian) | 150 | 73.73% ±99.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/celestial-guardian?window=all) | 150 | 73.73% ±99.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 150 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Serra Angel Statue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/serra-angel-statue) | 1 in 100 | $3,850 | 69.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [Secret Lair Commander Deck: Angels: They're Just Like Us but Cooler Deck other](https://gambatracker.com/items/secret-lair-commander-deck-angels-theyre-just-like-us-but-cooler-deck) | 1 in 57 | $385 | 12.1% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.52× | | [Secret Lair Drop Series: Spookydrop 2023: Secret Lair x Doctor Who: The Weeping Angels Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/secret-lair-drop-series-spookydrop-2023-secret-lair-x-doctor-who-the-weeping-angels-set) | 1 in 29 | $75.00 | 4.7% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× | | [From the Vault: Angels: Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/from-the-vault-angels-full-set) | 1 in 29 | $60.00 | 3.8% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× | | [From the Vault: Angels (Sealed) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/from-the-vault-angels-sealed) | 1 in 29 | $57.00 | 3.6% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.52× | | [Secret Lair Drop Series: Spookydrop 2023: Secret Lair x Doctor Who: The Weeping Angels other](https://gambatracker.com/items/secret-lair-drop-series-spookydrop-2023-secret-lair-x-doctor-who-the-weeping-angels) | 1 in 29 | $42.50 | 2.7% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× | | [Battle Angels of Tyr other](https://gambatracker.com/items/battle-angels-of-tyr) | 1 in 29 | $35.00 | 2.2% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× | | [Scars of Mirrodin: Indomitable Archangel & Sunblast Angel Deck Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/scars-of-mirrodin-indomitable-archangel-and-sunblast-angel-deck-box) | 1 in 20 | $6.00 | 0.5% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.67× | | [Secret Lair Commander Deck: Angels: They're Just Like Us but Cooler: Life Counter (Bruna, the Fading Light) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/secret-lair-commander-deck-angels-theyre-just-like-us-but-cooler-life-counter-bruna-the-fading-light) | 1 in 20 | $3.50 | 0.3% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.67× | | [From the Vault: Angels: D20 Die other](https://gambatracker.com/items/from-the-vault-angels-d20-die) | 1 in 20 | $3.00 | 0.3% | 11 | 7.5 | 1.47× | | [Angel's Grace other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-grace) | 1 in 20 | $1.50 | 0.1% | 6 | 7.5 | 0.80× | | [Jumpstart Pack Summary Card: Angels other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jumpstart-pack-summary-card-angels) | 1 in 20 | $1.50 | 0.1% | 4 | 7.5 | 0.53× | | [Entreat the Angels other](https://gambatracker.com/items/entreat-the-angels) | 1 in 13 | $0.80 | 0.1% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.07× | | [Angel's Trumpet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-trumpet) | 1 in 13 | $0.40 | 0.1% | 13 | 11.3 | 1.16× | | [Torens, Fist of the Angels other](https://gambatracker.com/items/torens-fist-of-the-angels) | 1 in 13 | $0.25 | 0.0% | 16 | 11.3 | 1.42× | | [Angel's Tomb other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-tomb) | 10.0% | $0.04 | 0.0% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× | | [Angel's Feather other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-feather) | 10.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 16 | 15.0 | 1.07× | | [Angel's Mercy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-mercy) | 12.3% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 16 | 18.4 | 0.87× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Serra Angel Statue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/serra-angel-statue) Hidden $62.09 $3,850 62.01x 2026-11-06 07:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=celestial-guardian) [Angel's Trumpet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-trumpet) Hidden $62.09 $0.40 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Angel's Tomb other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-tomb) Hidden $62.09 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [From the Vault: Angels: D20 Die other](https://gambatracker.com/items/from-the-vault-angels-d20-die) Hidden $62.09 $3.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Angel's Tomb other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-tomb) Hidden $62.09 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Entreat the Angels other](https://gambatracker.com/items/entreat-the-angels) Hidden $62.09 $0.80 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Angel's Tomb other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-tomb) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $62.09 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Angel's Feather other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-feather) Hidden $62.09 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-07 20:19 UTC [Angel's Trumpet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-trumpet) Hidden $62.09 $0.40 0.01x 2026-11-07 20:19 UTC [From the Vault: Angels: Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/from-the-vault-angels-full-set) Hidden $62.09 $60.00 0.97x 2026-11-07 20:19 UTC [Angel's Tomb other](https://gambatracker.com/items/angels-tomb) Hidden $62.09 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-07 20:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $62.09 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $3,850 (62.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt