--- title: "Chained Down case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Chained Down ($13,379.33) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 12 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/chained-down rendered: 2026-11-12T01:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Chained Down](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/chained-down) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Chained Down A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/chained-down?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/chained-down?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/chained-down) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/chained-down?window=all) Price · $13,379.33 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $11,974.50 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/chained-down?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/chained-down?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/chained-down) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/chained-down?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [16MM MIAMI CUBAN 14K SOLID GOLD CHAIN other](https://gambatracker.com/items/16mm-miami-cuban-14k-solid-gold-chain) | 1 in 33 | $100K | 25.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [14K White Gold Diamond Cuban Chain ( 564 GR ) ( 45 CTW ) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/14k-white-gold-diamond-cuban-chain-564-gr-45-ctw) | 1 in 50 | $76.5K | 12.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cuban Link Chain (14KT RG) (23 INCH) (267.4 Grams Prong Setting) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cuban-link-chain-14kt-rg-23-inch-267-4-grams-prong-setting) | 1 in 33 | $41.3K | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cuban Link Chain White Gold ( 232.5 Grams ) 22 inch- 27.66 CT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cuban-link-chain-white-gold-232-5-grams-22-inch-27-66-ct) | 1 in 25 | $32.5K | 10.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cuban Chain 14MM Rose Gold ( 203 G ) ( 1430 Stones ) ( 36.34 CT ) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cuban-chain-14mm-rose-gold-203-g-1430-stones-36-34-ct) | 1 in 25 | $29.2K | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cuban Link Chain 10K White Gold (Baguettes )(171.50 Grams) (22 Inch) 24.28CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cuban-link-chain-10k-white-gold-baguettes-171-50-grams-22-inch-24-28ctw) | 1 in 25 | $27K | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cuban Link Chain Rose Gold 22 Inch ( 125.30 Grams ) ( 20.04 CTW ) ( 1681 DIA ) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cuban-link-chain-rose-gold-22-inch-125-30-grams-20-04-ctw-1681-dia) | 1 in 20 | $20.4K | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2.5MM MIAMI CUBAN 14K SOLID GOLD CHAIN other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2-5mm-miami-cuban-14k-solid-gold-chain) | 10.0% | $4,000 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2MM ROPE 14K SOLID GOLD CHAIN other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2mm-rope-14k-solid-gold-chain) | 15.0% | $2,950 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [1.5MM ROPE 14K SOLID GOLD CHAIN other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-5mm-rope-14k-solid-gold-chain) | 20.0% | $1,650 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [1MM FRANCO 14K SOLID GOLD CHAIN other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1mm-franco-14k-solid-gold-chain) | 20.0% | $1,650 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Makers Narrow Chain Bracelet in Sterling Silver and 18k Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/makers-narrow-chain-bracelet-in-sterling-silver-and-18k-gold) | 10.0% | $1,350 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=chained-down) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.4K | 89.50% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt