--- title: "Cheap Mix case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cheap Mix ($12.40) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.44% from 21 items with odds, observed 80.02% over 1,062 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cheap-mix rendered: 2026-11-11T18:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Cheap Mix](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cheap-mix) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Cheap Mix A box on Cases.gg (Budget), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cheap-mix?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cheap-mix?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cheap-mix) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cheap-mix?window=all) Price · $12.40 Advertised RTP · 89.44% · EV $11.09 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.02% · 1,062 openings, odds method Variance · 20.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 51 openings · below min 7 days · 80.82% ±28.70 972 openings 30 days · 80.02% ±27.46 1,062 openings since tracking started · 80.02% ±27.46 1,062 openings -0.5% 102.8% 206.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cheap-mix?window=24h) | 51 | 79.85% ±125.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cheap-mix?window=7d) | 972 | 80.82% ±28.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cheap-mix) | 1,062 | 80.02% ±27.5 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cheap-mix?window=all) | 1,062 | 80.02% ±27.5 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,062 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White MCA University Blue (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-mca-university-blue-us-8) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,480 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SAMSUNG Galaxy Z Fold 6 AI Cell Phone, 256GB, Navy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-z-fold-6-ai-cell-phone-256gb-navy) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,330 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [KAWS Separated Vinyl Figure Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kaws-separated-vinyl-figure-set) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,976 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Supreme Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Black (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-black-us-xl) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,060 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Louis Vuitton by Tyler, the Creator Multiple Wallet Chocolate Craggy Monogram other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-by-tyler-the-creator-multiple-wallet-chocolate-craggy-monogram) | 1 in 10,000 | $800 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Louis Vuitton LV Slim Bracelet Monogram Eclipse Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-lv-slim-bracelet-monogram-eclipse-black) | 1 in 10,000 | $450 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [YOSUDA Indoor Cycling Bike Brake Pad/Magnetic Stationary Bike other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yosuda-indoor-cycling-bike-brake-pad-magnetic-stationary-bike) | 1 in 10,000 | $305 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nintendo Switch Lite - Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-lite-blue) | 1 in 200 | $285 | 12.8% | 2 | 5.3 | 0.38× | | [Supreme Burberry Skateboard Deck Beige other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-skateboard-deck-beige) | 1 in 10,000 | $265 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Apple AirPods (2nd Generation) Wireless Ear Buds other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-airpods-2nd-generation-wireless-ear-buds) | 1 in 200 | $175 | 7.9% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× | | [Supreme Bandana Box Logo Tee Navy (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-bandana-box-logo-tee-navy-us-m) | 1 in 10,000 | $130 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Crocs Classic Clog Minecraft Grass Block (US Men's 4) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-classic-clog-minecraft-grass-block-us-mens-4) | 1 in 200 | $125 | 5.6% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.32× | | [Xbox Core Wireless Gaming Controller – Velocity Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/xbox-core-wireless-gaming-controller-velocity-green) | 1 in 200 | $93.00 | 4.2% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.75× | | [Furmax Office Chair other](https://gambatracker.com/items/furmax-office-chair) | 1 in 20 | $67.00 | 30.2% | 65 | 53.1 | 1.22× | | [KAWS x Uniqlo Longsleeve Sweatshirt Black (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kaws-x-uniqlo-longsleeve-sweatshirt-black-us-l) | 1 in 100 | $56.00 | 5.0% | 12 | 10.6 | 1.13× | | [Garden Shovel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/garden-shovel) | 1 in 20 | $18.32 | 8.3% | 58 | 53.1 | 1.09× | | [LEGO Minifigures Goblin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minifigures-goblin) | 1 in 20 | $15.50 | 7.0% | 50 | 53.1 | 0.94× | | [JASPIN Rectangle Sunglasses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jaspin-rectangle-sunglasses) | 1 in 20 | $7.00 | 3.2% | 38 | 53.1 | 0.72× | | [Jordan Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-keychain) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 | 2.3% | 55 | 53.1 | 1.04× | | [Chocolate Gold Coin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chocolate-gold-coin) | 32.0% | $1.00 | 2.9% | 331 | 339.8 | 0.97× | | [Dog Treat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dog-treat) | 39.9% | $0.25 | 0.9% | 435 | 423.8 | 1.03× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=cheap-mix) [JASPIN Rectangle Sunglasses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jaspin-rectangle-sunglasses) Hidden $12.40 $7.00 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [Dog Treat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dog-treat) Hidden $12.40 $0.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [Furmax Office Chair other](https://gambatracker.com/items/furmax-office-chair) Hidden $12.40 $67.00 5.40x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [Dog Treat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dog-treat) Hidden $12.40 $0.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [Dog Treat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dog-treat) Hidden $12.40 $0.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [Chocolate Gold Coin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chocolate-gold-coin) [jesse42](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/jesse42) $12.40 $1.00 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [Dog Treat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dog-treat) Hidden $12.40 $0.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Dog Treat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dog-treat) [Graceful Dragon](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Graceful%20Dragon) $12.40 $0.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Jordan Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-keychain) Hidden $12.40 $5.00 0.40x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [Garden Shovel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/garden-shovel) Hidden $12.40 $18.32 1.48x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.40 | 89.44% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.44 on average: an expected loss of $10.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt