---
title: "Christmas Morning case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Christmas Morning ($320.26) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 76.93% over 27 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-morning
rendered: 2026-11-12T09:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Christmas Morning](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-morning)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Christmas Morning

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-morning?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-morning?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-morning) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-morning?window=all)

Price · $320.26

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $286.62 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.93% · 27 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 12 openings · below min

30 days · 27 openings · below min

since tracking started · 27 openings · below min

-0.5% 60.3% 121.0%

**Small sample.** 27 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-morning?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-morning?window=7d) | 12 | 53.45% ±65.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-morning) | 27 | 76.93% ±43.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-morning?window=all) | 27 | 76.93% ±43.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [ASUS ROG Strix G16 (2024) Gaming Laptop, 16” other](https://gambatracker.com/items/asus-rog-strix-g16-2024-gaming-laptop-16) | 1 in 100 | $1,950 | 6.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [iPhone 16 Pro Max, Black Titanium, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-max-black-titanium-256-gb) | 1 in 80 | $1,440 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dyson V15 Detect Cordless Vacuum Cleaner other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dyson-v15-detect-cordless-vacuum-cleaner) | 1 in 40 | $900 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [PlayStation 5 Pro Console other](https://gambatracker.com/items/playstation-5-pro-console) | 1 in 33 | $900 | 9.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [iRobot Roomba i7+ (7550) Robot Vacuum with Automatic Dirt Disposal other](https://gambatracker.com/items/irobot-roomba-i7-7550-robot-vacuum-with-automatic-dirt-disposal) | 1 in 40 | $880 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Breville BES870XL Espresso Machine other](https://gambatracker.com/items/breville-bes870xl-espresso-machine) | 1 in 40 | $825 | 7.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch Ultra 47mm, Titanium Gray other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-galaxy-watch-ultra-47mm-titanium-gray) | 1 in 33 | $780 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Amazon Fire TV 55" Omni QLED Series 4K UHD smart TV other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-fire-tv-55-omni-qled-series-4k-uhd-smart-tv) | 1 in 33 | $720 | 7.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Segway Ninebot ES4 Foldable Electric Scooter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/segway-ninebot-es4-foldable-electric-scooter) | 1 in 33 | $670 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Jupiter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-jupiter) | 1 in 15 | $430 | 9.8% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.71× |
| [TheraGun Prime Quiet Deep Tissue Therapy Massage Gun other](https://gambatracker.com/items/theragun-prime-quiet-deep-tissue-therapy-massage-gun) | 1 in 15 | $330 | 7.5% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.71× |
| [Apple AirPods 4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-airpods-4) | 1 in 14 | $240 | 6.1% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [Chanel ALLURE HOMME SPORT EAU EXTRÊME Eau de Parfum 50ml other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-allure-homme-sport-eau-extreme-eau-de-parfum-50ml) | 1 in 13 | $156 | 4.4% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [Stanley Quencher H2.0 FlowState Stainless Steel Vacuum Insulated Tumbler other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-quencher-h2-0-flowstate-stainless-steel-vacuum-insulated-tumbler) | 10.0% | $60.00 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| [Fortnite V-Bucks Gift Card - 5000 V-Bucks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fortnite-v-bucks-gift-card-5000-v-bucks) | 10.0% | $36.99 | 1.3% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.85× |
| [Welcome To The Jingle Christmas Sweater other](https://gambatracker.com/items/welcome-to-the-jingle-christmas-sweater) | 10.0% | $20.00 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [Christmas Socks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-socks) | 10.0% | $7.00 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [Hamburger Slippers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hamburger-slippers) | 10.0% | $2.20 | 0.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 09:09 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[ASUS ROG Strix G16 (2024) Gaming Laptop, 16” other](https://gambatracker.com/items/asus-rog-strix-g16-2024-gaming-laptop-16) Hidden $320 $1,950 6.09x 2026-11-03 00:08 UTC

[Breville BES870XL Espresso Machine other](https://gambatracker.com/items/breville-bes870xl-espresso-machine) Hidden $320 $825 2.58x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Amazon Fire TV 55" Omni QLED Series 4K UHD smart TV other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-fire-tv-55-omni-qled-series-4k-uhd-smart-tv) Hidden $320 $720 2.25x 2026-11-03 00:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=christmas-morning)

[Fortnite V-Bucks Gift Card - 5000 V-Bucks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fortnite-v-bucks-gift-card-5000-v-bucks) Hidden $320 $36.99 0.12x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Stanley Quencher H2.0 FlowState Stainless Steel Vacuum Insulated Tumbler other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-quencher-h2-0-flowstate-stainless-steel-vacuum-insulated-tumbler) Hidden $320 $60.00 0.19x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[TheraGun Prime Quiet Deep Tissue Therapy Massage Gun other](https://gambatracker.com/items/theragun-prime-quiet-deep-tissue-therapy-massage-gun) Hidden $320 $330 1.03x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Chanel ALLURE HOMME SPORT EAU EXTRÊME Eau de Parfum 50ml other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chanel-allure-homme-sport-eau-extreme-eau-de-parfum-50ml) Hidden $320 $156 0.49x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Breville BES870XL Espresso Machine other](https://gambatracker.com/items/breville-bes870xl-espresso-machine) Hidden $320 $825 2.58x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Hamburger Slippers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hamburger-slippers) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $320 $2.20 0.01x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[Swatch x Omega Bioceramic Moonswatch Mission to Jupiter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swatch-x-omega-bioceramic-moonswatch-mission-to-jupiter) Hidden $320 $430 1.34x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC

[Fortnite V-Bucks Gift Card - 5000 V-Bucks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fortnite-v-bucks-gift-card-5000-v-bucks) Hidden $320 $36.99 0.12x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC

[Welcome To The Jingle Christmas Sweater other](https://gambatracker.com/items/welcome-to-the-jingle-christmas-sweater) Hidden $320 $20.00 0.06x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC

[Stanley Quencher H2.0 FlowState Stainless Steel Vacuum Insulated Tumbler other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stanley-quencher-h2-0-flowstate-stainless-steel-vacuum-insulated-tumbler) Hidden $320 $60.00 0.19x 2026-11-10 08:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $320 | 89.50% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $1,950 (6.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt