--- title: "Christmas Shopping case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Christmas Shopping ($28.45) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.47% from 18 items with odds, observed 102.31% over 2,870 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-shopping rendered: 2026-11-12T02:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Christmas Shopping](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-shopping) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Christmas Shopping A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-shopping?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-shopping?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-shopping) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-shopping?window=all) Price · $28.45 Advertised RTP · 89.47% · EV $25.45 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.31% · 2,870 openings, odds method Variance · 18.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 52 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 186 openings · below min 7 days · 99.61% ±16.73 2,553 openings 30 days · 102.31% ±15.78 2,870 openings since tracking started · 102.31% ±15.78 2,870 openings 11.5% 74.0% 136.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-shopping?window=24h) | 186 | 73.88% ±62.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-shopping?window=7d) | 2,553 | 99.61% ±16.7 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-shopping) | 2,870 | 102.31% ±15.8 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/christmas-shopping?window=all) | 2,870 | 102.31% ±15.8 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,870 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop \| Intel Core i5-13420H Processor \| NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acer-nitro-v-gaming-laptop-intel-core-i5-13420h-processor-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4050-laptop-gpu) | 1 in 500 | $1,600 | 12.6% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.39× | | [LEGO Star Wars Super Star Destroyer Set 10221 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-star-wars-super-star-destroyer-set-10221) | 1 in 800 | $1,595 | 7.8% | 9 | 3.6 | 2.51× | | [iPhone 16 Pro, Natural Titanium, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-natural-titanium-128-gb) | 1 in 667 | $1,200 | 7.1% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.39× | | [Apple iPhone 15 Pro, 256GB, Natural Titanium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-iphone-15-pro-256gb-natural-titanium) | 1 in 556 | $760 | 5.4% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× | | [Dyson V8 Plus Cordless Vacuum, Silver/Nickel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dyson-v8-plus-cordless-vacuum-silver-nickel) | 1 in 250 | $564 | 8.9% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.78× | | [Dyson Supersonic™ Hair Dryer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dyson-supersonic-hair-dryer) | 1 in 250 | $516 | 8.1% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.78× | | [Apple Watch Series 10, Alluminum, 42mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-series-10-alluminum-42mm) | 1 in 222 | $480 | 8.5% | 11 | 12.9 | 0.85× | | [Apple AirPods 4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-airpods-4) | 1 in 125 | $240 | 7.5% | 21 | 23.0 | 0.91× | | [LEGO Star Wars R2-D2 Brick Built Droid Figure 75379 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-star-wars-r2-d2-brick-built-droid-figure-75379) | 1 in 80 | $135 | 6.6% | 48 | 35.9 | 1.34× | | [Fortnite V-Bucks Gift Card - 5000 V-Bucks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fortnite-v-bucks-gift-card-5000-v-bucks) | 1 in 28 | $36.99 | 5.2% | 101 | 101.7 | 0.99× | | [Jersey Mike's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jersey-mikes-gift-card) | 1 in 20 | $25.00 | 4.9% | 115 | 143.5 | 0.80× | | [$20 Dominos Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-dominos-gift-card) | 1 in 18 | $20.00 | 4.3% | 191 | 157.8 | 1.21× | | [Evshine Women's Fuzzy Slippers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/evshine-womens-fuzzy-slippers) | 1 in 18 | $20.00 | 4.3% | 141 | 157.8 | 0.89× | | [Pack Of 3 White Men's Socks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pack-of-3-white-mens-socks) | 10.0% | $8.99 | 3.5% | 276 | 287.0 | 0.96× | | [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) | 12.5% | $6.50 | 3.2% | 358 | 358.8 | 1.00× | | [Artificial Bonsai Tree other](https://gambatracker.com/items/artificial-bonsai-tree) | 15.0% | $2.00 | 1.2% | 452 | 430.5 | 1.05× | | [Poop Emoji Stress Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poop-emoji-stress-toy) | 15.0% | $0.99 | 0.6% | 421 | 430.5 | 0.98× | | [Coastal Surfer Beach Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coastal-surfer-beach-bracelet) | 24.0% | $0.35 | 0.3% | 690 | 688.8 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acer-nitro-v-gaming-laptop-intel-core-i5-13420h-processor-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4050-laptop-gpu) [SnupsBar](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SnupsBar) $28.45 $1,600 56.24x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC [Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acer-nitro-v-gaming-laptop-intel-core-i5-13420h-processor-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4050-laptop-gpu) Hidden $28.45 $1,600 56.24x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC [Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acer-nitro-v-gaming-laptop-intel-core-i5-13420h-processor-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4050-laptop-gpu) Hidden $28.45 $1,600 56.24x 2026-11-07 10:48 UTC [Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acer-nitro-v-gaming-laptop-intel-core-i5-13420h-processor-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4050-laptop-gpu) Hidden $28.45 $1,600 56.24x 2026-11-07 05:58 UTC [Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acer-nitro-v-gaming-laptop-intel-core-i5-13420h-processor-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4050-laptop-gpu) Hidden $28.45 $1,600 56.24x 2026-11-06 22:40 UTC [Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acer-nitro-v-gaming-laptop-intel-core-i5-13420h-processor-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4050-laptop-gpu) Hidden $28.45 $1,600 56.24x 2026-11-06 05:16 UTC [Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acer-nitro-v-gaming-laptop-intel-core-i5-13420h-processor-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4050-laptop-gpu) Hidden $28.45 $1,600 56.24x 2026-11-03 06:24 UTC [Acer Nitro V Gaming Laptop | Intel Core i5-13420H Processor | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4050 Laptop GPU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acer-nitro-v-gaming-laptop-intel-core-i5-13420h-processor-nvidia-geforce-rtx-4050-laptop-gpu) Hidden $28.45 $1,600 56.24x 2026-11-03 00:13 UTC [LEGO Star Wars Super Star Destroyer Set 10221 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-star-wars-super-star-destroyer-set-10221) Hidden $28.45 $1,595 56.06x 2026-11-07 18:17 UTC [LEGO Star Wars Super Star Destroyer Set 10221 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-star-wars-super-star-destroyer-set-10221) Hidden $28.45 $1,595 56.06x 2026-11-07 17:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=christmas-shopping) [$20 Dominos Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-dominos-gift-card) Hidden $28.45 $20.00 0.70x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC [Evshine Women's Fuzzy Slippers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/evshine-womens-fuzzy-slippers) Hidden $28.45 $20.00 0.70x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) Hidden $28.45 $6.50 0.23x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC [Coastal Surfer Beach Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coastal-surfer-beach-bracelet) Hidden $28.45 $0.35 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC [Evshine Women's Fuzzy Slippers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/evshine-womens-fuzzy-slippers) Hidden $28.45 $20.00 0.70x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC [Coastal Surfer Beach Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coastal-surfer-beach-bracelet) [Ncthcfoodie code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Ncthcfoodie%20code%20DGN) $28.45 $0.35 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC [Jersey Mike's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jersey-mikes-gift-card) Hidden $28.45 $25.00 0.88x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC [Apple Watch Series 10, Alluminum, 42mm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-watch-series-10-alluminum-42mm) Hidden $28.45 $480 16.87x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC [Coastal Surfer Beach Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coastal-surfer-beach-bracelet) Hidden $28.45 $0.35 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC [Coastal Surfer Beach Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coastal-surfer-beach-bracelet) Hidden $28.45 $0.35 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.45 | 89.47% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,600 (56.24x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.47 on average: an expected loss of $10.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt