---
title: "Coffee Connoisseur case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Coffee Connoisseur ($39.38) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 18 items with odds, observed 56.21% over 102 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coffee-connoisseur
rendered: 2026-11-12T02:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Coffee Connoisseur](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coffee-connoisseur)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Coffee Connoisseur

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coffee-connoisseur?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coffee-connoisseur?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coffee-connoisseur) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coffee-connoisseur?window=all)

Price · $39.38

Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $35.24 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 56.21% · 102 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 16 openings · below min

7 days · 56.21% ±49.02 102 openings

30 days · 56.21% ±49.02 102 openings

since tracking started · 56.21% ±49.02 102 openings

-0.5% 111.5% 223.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coffee-connoisseur?window=24h) | 16 | 98.88% ±123.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coffee-connoisseur?window=7d) | 102 | 56.21% ±49.0 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coffee-connoisseur) | 102 | 56.21% ±49.0 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coffee-connoisseur?window=all) | 102 | 56.21% ±49.0 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Jamaica Blue Mountain Coffee other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jamaica-blue-mountain-coffee) | 1 in 100 | $856 | 24.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Multifunction Classic Moka Pot Stovetop Espresso Maker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/multifunction-classic-moka-pot-stovetop-espresso-maker) | 1 in 50 | $369 | 20.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [Designer Coffee Table Books other](https://gambatracker.com/items/designer-coffee-table-books) | 1 in 50 | $150 | 8.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [Coffee x Spice Winter Gift Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-x-spice-winter-gift-set) | 1 in 33 | $75.00 | 6.4% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [Chemex Pour-Over Glass Coffeemaker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chemex-pour-over-glass-coffeemaker) | 1 in 33 | $62.00 | 5.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [YETI Rambler 20 oz Travel Mug other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yeti-rambler-20-oz-travel-mug) | 1 in 33 | $48.00 | 4.1% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.31× |
| [AeroPress Original Coffee and Espresso-style Maker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/aeropress-original-coffee-and-espresso-style-maker) | 1 in 33 | $42.00 | 3.6% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [Java Planet Organic Coffee Sampler Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/java-planet-organic-coffee-sampler-pack) | 1 in 33 | $36.00 | 3.1% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [4x Porcelain Coffee Cups other](https://gambatracker.com/items/4x-porcelain-coffee-cups) | 1 in 20 | $32.40 | 4.6% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [Mayorga Decaf Dark Roast Coffee 2lb Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mayorga-decaf-dark-roast-coffee-2lb-bag) | 1 in 20 | $29.00 | 4.1% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [Bodum 34 oz Brazil French Press Coffee Maker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bodum-34-oz-brazil-french-press-coffee-maker) | 1 in 20 | $27.50 | 3.9% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× |
| [BAGAIL BASICS Coffee Scale with Timer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bagail-basics-coffee-scale-with-timer) | 1 in 20 | $22.00 | 3.1% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [WoodWick Medium Hourglass Candle - Vanilla Bean, Caramel, Biscotti other](https://gambatracker.com/items/woodwick-medium-hourglass-candle-vanilla-bean-caramel-biscotti) | 1 in 13 | $18.00 | 3.8% | 10 | 7.7 | 1.31× |
| [Espresso Coffee – Goat Milk Soap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/espresso-coffee-goat-milk-soap) | 1 in 13 | $8.50 | 1.8% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.05× |
| [Bonsenkitchen Powerful Milk Frother for Coffee other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bonsenkitchen-powerful-milk-frother-for-coffee) | 1 in 13 | $7.00 | 1.5% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.92× |
| [Wooden Honey Dripper other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooden-honey-dripper) | 10.0% | $1.50 | 0.4% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.27× |
| [Coffee Cup Art Stencil other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-cup-art-stencil) | 12.5% | $1.00 | 0.4% | 16 | 12.8 | 1.25× |
| [Cone Coffee Filter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cone-coffee-filter) | 15.0% | $0.50 | 0.2% | 12 | 15.3 | 0.78× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=coffee-connoisseur)

[Espresso Coffee – Goat Milk Soap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/espresso-coffee-goat-milk-soap) Hidden $39.38 $8.50 0.22x 2026-11-11 08:48 UTC

[Bodum 34 oz Brazil French Press Coffee Maker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bodum-34-oz-brazil-french-press-coffee-maker) Hidden $39.38 $27.50 0.70x 2026-11-11 08:48 UTC

[Mayorga Decaf Dark Roast Coffee 2lb Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mayorga-decaf-dark-roast-coffee-2lb-bag) Hidden $39.38 $29.00 0.74x 2026-11-11 08:48 UTC

[Cone Coffee Filter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cone-coffee-filter) Hidden $39.38 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:48 UTC

[Bonsenkitchen Powerful Milk Frother for Coffee other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bonsenkitchen-powerful-milk-frother-for-coffee) Hidden $39.38 $7.00 0.18x 2026-11-11 08:48 UTC

[Espresso Coffee – Goat Milk Soap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/espresso-coffee-goat-milk-soap) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $39.38 $8.50 0.22x 2026-11-11 08:48 UTC

[Coffee Cup Art Stencil other](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-cup-art-stencil) Hidden $39.38 $1.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC

[Espresso Coffee – Goat Milk Soap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/espresso-coffee-goat-milk-soap) Hidden $39.38 $8.50 0.22x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC

[Multifunction Classic Moka Pot Stovetop Espresso Maker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/multifunction-classic-moka-pot-stovetop-espresso-maker) Hidden $39.38 $369 9.37x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC

[Espresso Coffee – Goat Milk Soap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/espresso-coffee-goat-milk-soap) Hidden $39.38 $8.50 0.22x 2026-11-11 04:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.38 | 89.48% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt