--- title: "Coined case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Coined ($298.93) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 108.98% over 78 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coined rendered: 2026-11-11T18:16Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Coined](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coined) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Coined A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coined?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coined?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coined) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coined?window=all) Price · $298.93 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $267.53 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 108.98% · 78 openings, odds method Variance · 40.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 78 openings · below min 30 days · 78 openings · below min since tracking started · 78 openings · below min -0.5% 125.5% 251.5% **Small sample.** 78 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coined?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coined?window=7d) | 78 | 108.98% ±141.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coined) | 78 | 108.98% ±141.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/coined?window=all) | 78 | 108.98% ±141.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [1652 Pine Tree Shilling MS-64 PCGS (Large Planchet) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1652-pine-tree-shilling-ms-64-pcgs-large-planchet) | 1 in 10,000 | $121K | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [1797 Bust Half Dollar Fine-12 PCGS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1797-bust-half-dollar-fine-12-pcgs) | 1 in 2,000 | $55.8K | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [1886 Morgan Dollar PR-66 PCGS CAC other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1886-morgan-dollar-pr-66-pcgs-cac) | 1 in 1,000 | $15.6K | 5.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [1901 Morgan Dollar MS-60 PCGS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1901-morgan-dollar-ms-60-pcgs) | 1 in 200 | $5,634 | 10.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [$20 Liberty Gold Double Eagle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-liberty-gold-double-eagle) | 1 in 100 | $3,668 | 13.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [1909-S VDB Lincoln Cent XF other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1909-s-vdb-lincoln-cent-xf) | 1 in 50 | $1,854 | 13.9% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [1880-CC Morgan Dollar Rev of 78 BU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1880-cc-morgan-dollar-rev-of-78-bu) | 1 in 50 | $1,334 | 10.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [$5 Liberty Gold Half Eagle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-liberty-gold-half-eagle) | 1 in 33 | $1,025 | 11.5% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× | | [$1 Liberty Head Gold Dollar Type 1 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-liberty-head-gold-dollar-type-1) | 1 in 20 | $585 | 10.9% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [Roman Empire AR Denarius Vespasian 69-79 AD VG other](https://gambatracker.com/items/roman-empire-ar-denarius-vespasian-69-79-ad-vg) | 1 in 16 | $165 | 3.9% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× | | [1892 Columbian Expo Half BU Details other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1892-columbian-expo-half-bu-details) | 1 in 13 | $55.00 | 1.5% | 8 | 5.8 | 1.37× | | [1922 Peace Dollar BU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1922-peace-dollar-bu) | 1 in 13 | $40.00 | 1.1% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× | | [1948-1963 Franklin Half Dollar Gem Proof other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1948-1963-franklin-half-dollar-gem-proof) | 1 in 13 | $21.00 | 0.6% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× | | [1953-S Washington Quarter BU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1953-s-washington-quarter-bu) | 10.0% | $16.00 | 0.6% | 4 | 7.8 | 0.51× | | [1971-1976 40% Silver Eisenhower Dollar BU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1971-1976-40-silver-eisenhower-dollar-bu) | 10.0% | $14.00 | 0.5% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.41× | | [1916-1947 Walking Liberty Half Dollar XF other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1916-1947-walking-liberty-half-dollar-xf) | 10.0% | $12.00 | 0.4% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× | | [United States Dollar Coin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/united-states-dollar-coin) | 10.0% | $1.00 | 0.0% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× | | [United States Penny other](https://gambatracker.com/items/united-states-penny) | 17.6% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 11 | 13.7 | 0.80× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [1901 Morgan Dollar MS-60 PCGS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1901-morgan-dollar-ms-60-pcgs) Hidden $299 $5,634 18.85x 2026-11-07 14:19 UTC [$20 Liberty Gold Double Eagle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-liberty-gold-double-eagle) Hidden $299 $3,668 12.27x 2026-11-07 14:14 UTC [$20 Liberty Gold Double Eagle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/20-liberty-gold-double-eagle) [Arrrbaccos](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Arrrbaccos) $299 $3,668 12.27x 2026-11-06 07:55 UTC [1909-S VDB Lincoln Cent XF other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1909-s-vdb-lincoln-cent-xf) Hidden $299 $1,854 6.20x 2026-11-07 14:17 UTC [1909-S VDB Lincoln Cent XF other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1909-s-vdb-lincoln-cent-xf) Hidden $299 $1,854 6.20x 2026-11-07 03:48 UTC [1880-CC Morgan Dollar Rev of 78 BU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1880-cc-morgan-dollar-rev-of-78-bu) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $299 $1,334 4.46x 2026-11-07 14:14 UTC [1880-CC Morgan Dollar Rev of 78 BU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1880-cc-morgan-dollar-rev-of-78-bu) Hidden $299 $1,334 4.46x 2026-11-07 03:48 UTC [$5 Liberty Gold Half Eagle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-liberty-gold-half-eagle) Hidden $299 $1,025 3.43x 2026-11-07 14:15 UTC [$5 Liberty Gold Half Eagle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-liberty-gold-half-eagle) Hidden $299 $1,025 3.43x 2026-11-07 03:48 UTC [$5 Liberty Gold Half Eagle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/5-liberty-gold-half-eagle) Hidden $299 $1,025 3.43x 2026-11-06 07:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=coined) [1971-1976 40% Silver Eisenhower Dollar BU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1971-1976-40-silver-eisenhower-dollar-bu) Hidden $299 $14.00 0.05x 2026-11-07 14:19 UTC [1901 Morgan Dollar MS-60 PCGS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1901-morgan-dollar-ms-60-pcgs) Hidden $299 $5,634 18.85x 2026-11-07 14:19 UTC [United States Dollar Coin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/united-states-dollar-coin) Hidden $299 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-07 14:19 UTC [Roman Empire AR Denarius Vespasian 69-79 AD VG other](https://gambatracker.com/items/roman-empire-ar-denarius-vespasian-69-79-ad-vg) Hidden $299 $165 0.55x 2026-11-07 14:19 UTC [United States Penny other](https://gambatracker.com/items/united-states-penny) Hidden $299 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-07 14:19 UTC [1916-1947 Walking Liberty Half Dollar XF other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1916-1947-walking-liberty-half-dollar-xf) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $299 $12.00 0.04x 2026-11-07 14:19 UTC [United States Dollar Coin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/united-states-dollar-coin) Hidden $299 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-07 14:18 UTC [1916-1947 Walking Liberty Half Dollar XF other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1916-1947-walking-liberty-half-dollar-xf) Hidden $299 $12.00 0.04x 2026-11-07 14:18 UTC [1922 Peace Dollar BU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1922-peace-dollar-bu) Hidden $299 $40.00 0.13x 2026-11-07 14:18 UTC [1953-S Washington Quarter BU other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1953-s-washington-quarter-bu) Hidden $299 $16.00 0.05x 2026-11-07 14:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $299 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $5,634 (18.85x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt