---
title: "Cosplay Craze case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cosplay Craze ($39.84) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 85.75% over 78 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cosplay-craze
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Cosplay Craze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cosplay-craze)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Cosplay Craze

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cosplay-craze?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cosplay-craze?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cosplay-craze) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cosplay-craze?window=all)

Price · $39.84

Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $35.65 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.75% · 78 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 22 openings · below min

7 days · 68 openings · below min

30 days · 78 openings · below min

since tracking started · 78 openings · below min

-0.5% 66.5% 133.5%

**Small sample.** 78 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cosplay-craze?window=24h) | 22 | 61.05% ±72.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cosplay-craze?window=7d) | 68 | 91.12% ±40.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cosplay-craze) | 78 | 85.75% ±38.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cosplay-craze?window=all) | 78 | 85.75% ±38.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Hatsune Miku Chronicle 1:7 Scale PVC Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hatsune-miku-chronicle-1-7-scale-pvc-figure) | 1 in 100 | $475 | 13.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [FF Sephiroth Cosplay Costume other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ff-sephiroth-cosplay-costume) | 1 in 100 | $316 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [The Lord of the Rings Gandalf Cosplay Costume other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-lord-of-the-rings-gandalf-cosplay-costume) | 1 in 80 | $240 | 8.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Genshin Impact Tighnari Cosplay Costume other](https://gambatracker.com/items/genshin-impact-tighnari-cosplay-costume) | 1 in 50 | $185 | 10.4% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Genshin Impact Vigilant Yaksha Xiao Face Covering Mask Cosplay Accessory other](https://gambatracker.com/items/genshin-impact-vigilant-yaksha-xiao-face-covering-mask-cosplay-accessory) | 1 in 50 | $136 | 7.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [Nuoqi Violet Evergarden Cosplay Costume Womens Anime Uniform Dress Suit Outfit Dark Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nuoqi-violet-evergarden-cosplay-costume-womens-anime-uniform-dress-suit-outfit-dark-blue) | 1 in 50 | $98.00 | 5.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| [Ichigo Kurosaki Bankai Buruchi Mid 1 Basketball Shoes for Kids other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ichigo-kurosaki-bankai-buruchi-mid-1-basketball-shoes-for-kids) | 1 in 50 | $87.00 | 4.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [Genshin Impact Derivative Backpack The Wanderer Scaramouche Balladeer Cat Style Plush Ita Bag Shoulder Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/genshin-impact-derivative-backpack-the-wanderer-scaramouche-balladeer-cat-style-plush-ita-bag-shoulder-bag) | 1 in 50 | $80.00 | 4.5% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [PM Derivative Magical Girl Sailor Suit Top and Skirt Set with Headband Choker Cosplay Costume other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pm-derivative-magical-girl-sailor-suit-top-and-skirt-set-with-headband-choker-cosplay-costume) | 1 in 33 | $76.00 | 6.4% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [Honkai: Star Rail Silver Wolf Cosplay Shoes Long Black Blue Boots other](https://gambatracker.com/items/honkai-star-rail-silver-wolf-cosplay-shoes-long-black-blue-boots) | 1 in 33 | $60.00 | 5.0% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| [Attack On Titan Official Licensed Survey Corps Plush Cloak with Wings of Freedom other](https://gambatracker.com/items/attack-on-titan-official-licensed-survey-corps-plush-cloak-with-wings-of-freedom) | 1 in 20 | $44.00 | 6.2% | 8 | 4.5 | 1.78× |
| [One Piece Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-beanie) | 1 in 16 | $23.99 | 4.2% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.42× |
| [Silver Naruto 8.7inch Kunai other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-naruto-8-7inch-kunai) | 1 in 13 | $19.00 | 4.0% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.19× |
| [Athena Face Body Paint Oil Palette other](https://gambatracker.com/items/athena-face-body-paint-oil-palette) | 1 in 11 | $15.00 | 4.0% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.17× |
| [Navy Blue Wig for Venti Cosplay Costume other](https://gambatracker.com/items/navy-blue-wig-for-venti-cosplay-costume) | 10.0% | $10.00 | 2.8% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| [BlueMyst Feline Contact Lenses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bluemyst-feline-contact-lenses) | 12.5% | $7.99 | 2.8% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.07× |
| [Naruto Bandai Spirits Memorable Saga Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-bandai-spirits-memorable-saga-figure) | 12.5% | $2.80 | 1.0% | 7 | 11.3 | 0.62× |
| [Death Note Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-keychain) | 17.5% | $0.25 | 0.1% | 17 | 15.7 | 1.08× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=cosplay-craze)

[One Piece Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/one-piece-beanie) Hidden $39.84 $23.99 0.60x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Death Note Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-keychain) Hidden $39.84 $0.25 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Honkai: Star Rail Silver Wolf Cosplay Shoes Long Black Blue Boots other](https://gambatracker.com/items/honkai-star-rail-silver-wolf-cosplay-shoes-long-black-blue-boots) Hidden $39.84 $60.00 1.51x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Navy Blue Wig for Venti Cosplay Costume other](https://gambatracker.com/items/navy-blue-wig-for-venti-cosplay-costume) Hidden $39.84 $10.00 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Nuoqi Violet Evergarden Cosplay Costume Womens Anime Uniform Dress Suit Outfit Dark Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nuoqi-violet-evergarden-cosplay-costume-womens-anime-uniform-dress-suit-outfit-dark-blue) Hidden $39.84 $98.00 2.46x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Athena Face Body Paint Oil Palette other](https://gambatracker.com/items/athena-face-body-paint-oil-palette) Hidden $39.84 $15.00 0.38x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Naruto Bandai Spirits Memorable Saga Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-bandai-spirits-memorable-saga-figure) Hidden $39.84 $2.80 0.07x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC

[BlueMyst Feline Contact Lenses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bluemyst-feline-contact-lenses) Hidden $39.84 $7.99 0.20x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC

[Death Note Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-note-keychain) Hidden $39.84 $0.25 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC

[Naruto Bandai Spirits Memorable Saga Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-bandai-spirits-memorable-saga-figure) Hidden $39.84 $2.80 0.07x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.84 | 89.49% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt