--- title: "Crafted case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Crafted ($18.34) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 19 items with odds, observed 118.03% over 1,587 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/crafted rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Crafted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/crafted) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Crafted A box on Cases.gg (Video Games), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/crafted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/crafted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/crafted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/crafted?window=all) Price · $18.34 Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $16.41 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 118.03% · 1,587 openings, odds method Variance · 54.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 91 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 178 openings · below min 7 days · 88.92% ±40.39 1,285 openings 30 days · 118.03% ±36.34 1,587 openings since tracking started · 118.03% ±36.34 1,587 openings -0.5% 86.3% 173.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/crafted?window=24h) | 178 | 63.81% ±108.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/crafted?window=7d) | 1,285 | 88.92% ±40.4 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/crafted) | 1,587 | 118.03% ±36.3 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/crafted?window=all) | 1,587 | 118.03% ±36.3 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,587 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [LEGO Minecraft The Mountain Cave Set 21137 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-mountain-cave-set-21137) | 1 in 500 | $2,880 | 35.1% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.58× | | [LEGO Minecraft The Fortress Set 21127 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-fortress-set-21127) | 1 in 500 | $584 | 7.1% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.95× | | [Diamond Block other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-block) | 1 in 500 | $500 | 6.1% | 7 | 3.2 | 2.21× | | [LEGO Minecraft The End Set 21107 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-end-set-21107) | 1 in 200 | $250 | 7.6% | 10 | 7.9 | 1.26× | | [LEGO Minecraft The Farm Cottage Set 21144 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-farm-cottage-set-21144) | 1 in 250 | $235 | 5.7% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.26× | | [Gold Block other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gold-block) | 1 in 200 | $100 | 3.0% | 11 | 7.9 | 1.39× | | [LEGO Minecraft The Sword Outpost Set 21244 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-sword-outpost-set-21244) | 1 in 133 | $80.00 | 3.7% | 8 | 11.9 | 0.67× | | [Minecraft Green Creeper 2-Slice Toaster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minecraft-green-creeper-2-slice-toaster) | 1 in 133 | $75.00 | 3.4% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.92× | | [Mattel Minecraft Exploding RC Creeper with Lights & Sounds other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mattel-minecraft-exploding-rc-creeper-with-lights-and-sounds) | 1 in 100 | $60.00 | 3.7% | 16 | 15.9 | 1.01× | | [Minecraft Dungeons Ultimate Edition - Nintendo Switch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minecraft-dungeons-ultimate-edition-nintendo-switch) | 1 in 100 | $60.00 | 3.7% | 14 | 15.9 | 0.88× | | [Crocs Classic Clog Minecraft Grass Block (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-classic-clog-minecraft-grass-block-us-mens-10) | 1 in 100 | $57.00 | 3.5% | 25 | 15.9 | 1.58× | | [Minecraft C418 Volume Alpha LP Vinyl other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minecraft-c418-volume-alpha-lp-vinyl) | 1 in 67 | $37.00 | 3.4% | 24 | 23.8 | 1.01× | | [Minecraft Brownstone Torch Lamp \| 11.5 Inch LED Night Light other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minecraft-brownstone-torch-lamp-11-5-inch-led-night-light) | 1 in 50 | $36.29 | 4.4% | 26 | 31.7 | 0.82× | | [Mattel Minecraft Enchanted Diamond Sword other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mattel-minecraft-enchanted-diamond-sword) | 1 in 50 | $24.19 | 2.9% | 31 | 31.7 | 0.98× | | [Minecraft Plush Figure 2-Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minecraft-plush-figure-2-pack) | 1 in 50 | $18.99 | 2.3% | 36 | 31.7 | 1.13× | | [Zak Designs Minecraft Water Bottle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zak-designs-minecraft-water-bottle) | 1 in 50 | $14.99 | 1.8% | 42 | 31.7 | 1.32× | | [Plush Bee Stuffed Animal Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/plush-bee-stuffed-animal-figure) | 1 in 50 | $11.99 | 1.5% | 31 | 31.7 | 0.98× | | [Zak Designs Sage Minecraft Kids Water Bottle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zak-designs-sage-minecraft-kids-water-bottle) | 1 in 50 | $6.78 | 0.8% | 30 | 31.7 | 0.95× | | [Dirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dirt) | 80.0% | $0.05 | 0.2% | 1,249 | 1269.6 | 0.98× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [LEGO Minecraft The Mountain Cave Set 21137 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-mountain-cave-set-21137) Hidden $18.34 $2,880 157.0x 2026-11-08 22:22 UTC [LEGO Minecraft The Mountain Cave Set 21137 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-mountain-cave-set-21137) Hidden $18.34 $2,880 157.0x 2026-11-06 14:21 UTC [LEGO Minecraft The Mountain Cave Set 21137 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-mountain-cave-set-21137) Hidden $18.34 $2,880 157.0x 2026-11-03 16:32 UTC [LEGO Minecraft The Mountain Cave Set 21137 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-mountain-cave-set-21137) Hidden $18.34 $2,880 157.0x 2026-11-03 12:04 UTC [LEGO Minecraft The Mountain Cave Set 21137 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-mountain-cave-set-21137) Hidden $18.34 $2,880 157.0x 2026-11-03 02:39 UTC [LEGO Minecraft The Fortress Set 21127 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-fortress-set-21127) [bmw enjoyer](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/bmw%20enjoyer) $18.34 $584 31.84x 2026-11-09 21:27 UTC [LEGO Minecraft The Fortress Set 21127 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-fortress-set-21127) Hidden $18.34 $584 31.84x 2026-11-06 08:02 UTC [LEGO Minecraft The Fortress Set 21127 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-minecraft-the-fortress-set-21127) Hidden $18.34 $584 31.84x 2026-11-06 02:06 UTC [Diamond Block other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-block) Hidden $18.34 $500 27.26x 2026-11-11 03:06 UTC [Diamond Block other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-block) Hidden $18.34 $500 27.26x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=crafted) [Dirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dirt) Hidden $18.34 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:00 UTC [Dirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dirt) Hidden $18.34 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:00 UTC [Dirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dirt) [Gentle Giraffe](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Gentle%20Giraffe) $18.34 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:00 UTC [Dirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dirt) Hidden $18.34 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Dirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dirt) Hidden $18.34 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Mattel Minecraft Enchanted Diamond Sword other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mattel-minecraft-enchanted-diamond-sword) Hidden $18.34 $24.19 1.32x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Dirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dirt) [Gentle Giraffe](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Gentle%20Giraffe) $18.34 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Dirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dirt) Hidden $18.34 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Dirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dirt) Hidden $18.34 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Zak Designs Minecraft Water Bottle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zak-designs-minecraft-water-bottle) Hidden $18.34 $14.99 0.82x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.34 | 89.48% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $2,880 (157.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt