--- title: "CS2 case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "CS2 ($8.12) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.40% from 14 items with odds, observed 89.15% over 1,157 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cs2 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [CS2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cs2) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · CS2 A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cs2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cs2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cs2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cs2?window=all) Price · $8.12 Advertised RTP · 89.40% · EV $7.26 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.15% · 1,157 openings, odds method Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.05% ±51.12 118 openings 7 days · 88.96% ±17.41 1,017 openings 30 days · 89.15% ±16.32 1,157 openings since tracking started · 89.15% ±16.32 1,157 openings 28.5% 80.3% 132.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cs2?window=24h) | 118 | 80.05% ±51.1 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cs2?window=7d) | 1,017 | 88.96% ±17.4 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cs2) | 1,157 | 89.15% ±16.3 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/cs2?window=all) | 1,157 | 89.15% ±16.3 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,157 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [CS2 M4A1S Hyper Beast Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-m4a1s-hyper-beast-replica) | 1 in 1,000 | $526 | 7.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× | | [CS2 Glock-18 Water Elemental Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-glock-18-water-elemental-replica) | 1 in 400 | $170 | 5.9% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [CS2 Glock-18 Gamma Doppler Emerald Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-glock-18-gamma-doppler-emerald-replica) | 1 in 400 | $170 | 5.9% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [CS2 M9 Bayonet Tiger Tooth Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-replica) | 1 in 100 | $50.00 | 6.9% | 14 | 11.6 | 1.21× | | [CS2 Bayonet Slaughter Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-bayonet-slaughter-replica) | 1 in 100 | $50.00 | 6.9% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× | | [CS2 Talon Fade Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-talon-fade-replica) | 1 in 100 | $45.00 | 6.2% | 8 | 11.6 | 0.69× | | [CS2 Ursus Night Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-ursus-night-replica) | 1 in 100 | $45.00 | 6.2% | 14 | 11.6 | 1.21× | | [CS2 Butterfly Emerald Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-butterfly-emerald-replica) | 1 in 100 | $40.00 | 5.5% | 15 | 11.6 | 1.30× | | [CS2 Karambit Doppler P2 Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-karambit-doppler-p2-replica) | 1 in 100 | $40.00 | 5.5% | 8 | 11.6 | 0.69× | | [CS2 Skeleton Lore Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-skeleton-lore-replica) | 1 in 80 | $35.00 | 6.0% | 18 | 14.5 | 1.24× | | [CS2 Sport Gloves Vice Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-sport-gloves-vice-replica) | 1 in 80 | $35.00 | 6.0% | 18 | 14.5 | 1.24× | | [CS2 Gamma Case Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-gamma-case-replica) | 20.0% | $5.00 | 13.8% | 230 | 231.4 | 0.99× | | [CS2 Silver I Badge Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-silver-i-badge-replica) | 30.0% | $3.00 | 12.4% | 343 | 347.1 | 0.99× | | [CS2 Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-keychain) | 40.9% | $1.00 | 5.6% | 471 | 473.2 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [CS2 M4A1S Hyper Beast Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-m4a1s-hyper-beast-replica) Hidden $8.12 $526 64.72x 2026-11-07 20:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=cs2) [CS2 Gamma Case Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-gamma-case-replica) Hidden $8.12 $5.00 0.62x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [CS2 Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-keychain) Hidden $8.12 $1.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [CS2 Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-keychain) Hidden $8.12 $1.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [CS2 Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-keychain) Hidden $8.12 $1.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [CS2 Skeleton Lore Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-skeleton-lore-replica) Hidden $8.12 $35.00 4.31x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [CS2 Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-keychain) [Majestic Unicorn](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Majestic%20Unicorn) $8.12 $1.00 0.12x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [CS2 Gamma Case Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-gamma-case-replica) Hidden $8.12 $5.00 0.62x 2026-11-11 06:57 UTC [CS2 Karambit Doppler P2 Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-karambit-doppler-p2-replica) Hidden $8.12 $40.00 4.93x 2026-11-11 06:57 UTC [CS2 Silver I Badge Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-silver-i-badge-replica) Hidden $8.12 $3.00 0.37x 2026-11-11 06:57 UTC [CS2 Sport Gloves Vice Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs2-sport-gloves-vice-replica) Hidden $8.12 $35.00 4.31x 2026-11-11 06:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.12 | 89.40% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $526 (64.72x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.40 on average: an expected loss of $10.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt