--- title: "Diamond Tier case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Diamond Tier ($226.37) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 256.03% over 228 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/diamond-tier rendered: 2026-11-11T19:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Diamond Tier](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/diamond-tier) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Diamond Tier A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/diamond-tier?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/diamond-tier?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/diamond-tier) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/diamond-tier?window=all) Price · $226.37 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $202.60 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 256.03% · 228 openings, odds method Variance · 221.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 204 openings · below min 30 days · 228 openings · below min since tracking started · 228 openings · below min -0.5% 596.0% 1192.5% **Small sample.** 228 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/diamond-tier?window=24h) | 6 | 0.09% ±1191.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/diamond-tier?window=7d) | 204 | 117.02% ±204.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/diamond-tier) | 228 | 256.03% ±193.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/diamond-tier?window=all) | 228 | 256.03% ±193.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 228 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [T1 Pavé Diamond Necklace in Rose Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/t1-pave-diamond-necklace-in-rose-gold) | 1 in 2,000 | $97.5K | 24.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [18MM MIAMI CUBAN DIAMOND NECKLACE 14K SOLID GOLD 37.00CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/18mm-miami-cuban-diamond-necklace-14k-solid-gold-37-00ctw) | 1 in 2,000 | $72.6K | 17.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [36 Stone Bracelet in Platinum & Gold with Diamonds other](https://gambatracker.com/items/36-stone-bracelet-in-platinum-and-gold-with-diamonds) | 1 in 1,000 | $54K | 26.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [6PT PRONG SET DIAMOND TENNIS NECKLACE 14K SOLID GOLD 10.50CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/6pt-prong-set-diamond-tennis-necklace-14k-solid-gold-10-50ctw) | 1 in 1,000 | $29K | 14.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Hermès Faubourg Watch GM 18K Rose Gold White Diamonds Rose Gold Hardware other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-faubourg-watch-gm-18k-rose-gold-white-diamonds-rose-gold-hardware) | 1 in 1,000 | $12K | 5.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [SMALL NAIL DIAMOND BANGLE 14K SOLID GOLD 2.75CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-nail-diamond-bangle-14k-solid-gold-2-75ctw) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,250 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [1.00CTW SOLITAIRE DIAMOND STUD EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-00ctw-solitaire-diamond-stud-earrings-14k-solid-gold) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,500 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Diamond Snowflake Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-snowflake-earrings) | 1 in 500 | $3,050 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [BUTTERFLY DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.40CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-40ctw) | 1 in 500 | $1,250 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) | 99.0% | $0.20 | 0.1% | 225 | 225.7 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [18MM MIAMI CUBAN DIAMOND NECKLACE 14K SOLID GOLD 37.00CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/18mm-miami-cuban-diamond-necklace-14k-solid-gold-37-00ctw) Hidden $226 $72.6K 320.7x 2026-11-03 06:00 UTC [36 Stone Bracelet in Platinum & Gold with Diamonds other](https://gambatracker.com/items/36-stone-bracelet-in-platinum-and-gold-with-diamonds) Hidden $226 $54K 238.5x 2026-11-05 13:56 UTC [1.00CTW SOLITAIRE DIAMOND STUD EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-00ctw-solitaire-diamond-stud-earrings-14k-solid-gold) Hidden $226 $5,500 24.30x 2026-11-03 06:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=diamond-tier) [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) Hidden $226 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) Hidden $226 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) Hidden $226 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) Hidden $226 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) Hidden $226 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $226 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) Hidden $226 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) Hidden $226 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) Hidden $226 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC [Ace Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ace-keychain) Hidden $226 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $226 | 89.50% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $72.6K (320.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt