---
title: "Downhill case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Downhill ($10.05) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.46% from 18 items with odds, observed 87.14% over 1,695 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/downhill
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Downhill](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/downhill)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Downhill

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/downhill?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/downhill?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/downhill) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/downhill?window=all)

Price · $10.05

Advertised RTP · 89.46% · EV $8.99 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.14% · 1,695 openings, odds method

Variance · 51.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 180 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 130 openings · below min

7 days · 81.25% ±41.12 1,175 openings

30 days · 87.14% ±34.23 1,695 openings

since tracking started · 87.14% ±34.23 1,695 openings

-0.5% 105.3% 211.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/downhill?window=24h) | 130 | 86.97% ±123.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/downhill?window=7d) | 1,175 | 81.25% ±41.1 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/downhill) | 1,695 | 87.14% ±34.2 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/downhill?window=all) | 1,695 | 87.14% ±34.2 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,695 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2025 STOCKLI LASER SC SKI W/ SRT 12 BINDING other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-stockli-laser-sc-ski-w-srt-12-binding) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,870 | 10.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [2025 LANGE XT3 FREE 130 MV GW SKI BOOTS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-lange-xt3-free-130-mv-gw-ski-boots) | 1 in 1,000 | $935 | 10.4% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.36× |
| [2025 BLIZZARD RUSTLER 10 SKIS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-blizzard-rustler-10-skis) | 1 in 800 | $880 | 12.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [2024 SALOMON S/PRO SUPRA BOA 120 SKI BOOTS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-salomon-s-pro-supra-boa-120-ski-boots) | 1 in 833 | $825 | 11.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [DESCENTE NIGEL MENS JACKET other](https://gambatracker.com/items/descente-nigel-mens-jacket) | 1 in 625 | $572 | 10.2% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [2025 FISCHER S-BOUND 98 CROWN/DUAL-SKIN XTRALITE CROSS-COUNTRY SKIS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-fischer-s-bound-98-crown-dual-skin-xtralite-cross-country-skis) | 1 in 909 | $483 | 5.9% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [OBERMEYER COSIMA DOWN WOMENS JACKET other](https://gambatracker.com/items/obermeyer-cosima-down-womens-jacket) | 1 in 4,000 | $385 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [POC SKULL DURA X MIPS HELMET other](https://gambatracker.com/items/poc-skull-dura-x-mips-helmet) | 1 in 3,333 | $308 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [SKIDA ALPINE FLEECE-LINED WOMEN'S NECKWARMER other](https://gambatracker.com/items/skida-alpine-fleece-lined-womens-neckwarmer) | 1 in 40 | $30.00 | 8.3% | 42 | 42.0 | 1.00× |
| [SMARTWOOL SKI LIGHT CUSHION OTC KID'S SOCK other](https://gambatracker.com/items/smartwool-ski-light-cushion-otc-kids-sock) | 1 in 36 | $20.00 | 6.2% | 39 | 47.5 | 0.82× |
| [SEIRUS SNOWDANA other](https://gambatracker.com/items/seirus-snowdana) | 1 in 31 | $17.00 | 6.1% | 49 | 54.2 | 0.90× |
| [SCOTT WOMEN'S ULTIMATE HYBRID GLOVES other](https://gambatracker.com/items/scott-womens-ultimate-hybrid-gloves) | 1 in 25 | $11.00 | 4.9% | 49 | 67.8 | 0.72× |
| [Hand Warmers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-warmers) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 | 2.8% | 77 | 84.8 | 0.91× |
| [Ski Pole Straps other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ski-pole-straps) | 1 in 20 | $4.00 | 2.2% | 85 | 84.8 | 1.00× |
| [Ski Boot Charm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ski-boot-charm) | 10.0% | $3.10 | 3.4% | 176 | 169.5 | 1.04× |
| [I'd Rather Be Skiing Postcard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/id-rather-be-skiing-postcard) | 16.8% | $1.00 | 1.9% | 297 | 284.8 | 1.04× |
| [Copper Mountain Postcard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/copper-mountain-postcard) | 20.0% | $0.60 | 1.3% | 331 | 339.0 | 0.98× |
| [Ski Aspen Postcard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ski-aspen-postcard) | 30.0% | $0.20 | 0.7% | 538 | 508.5 | 1.06× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[2025 STOCKLI LASER SC SKI W/ SRT 12 BINDING other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-stockli-laser-sc-ski-w-srt-12-binding) [poneg](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/poneg) $10.05 $1,870 186.1x 2026-11-04 22:12 UTC

[2025 LANGE XT3 FREE 130 MV GW SKI BOOTS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-lange-xt3-free-130-mv-gw-ski-boots) Hidden $10.05 $935 93.03x 2026-11-07 01:40 UTC

[2025 LANGE XT3 FREE 130 MV GW SKI BOOTS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-lange-xt3-free-130-mv-gw-ski-boots) [rassman](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/rassman) $10.05 $935 93.03x 2026-11-05 20:17 UTC

[2025 LANGE XT3 FREE 130 MV GW SKI BOOTS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-lange-xt3-free-130-mv-gw-ski-boots) Hidden $10.05 $935 93.03x 2026-11-05 17:46 UTC

[2025 LANGE XT3 FREE 130 MV GW SKI BOOTS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-lange-xt3-free-130-mv-gw-ski-boots) Hidden $10.05 $935 93.03x 2026-11-03 00:33 UTC

[2025 BLIZZARD RUSTLER 10 SKIS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-blizzard-rustler-10-skis) Hidden $10.05 $880 87.56x 2026-11-08 14:21 UTC

[2024 SALOMON S/PRO SUPRA BOA 120 SKI BOOTS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-salomon-s-pro-supra-boa-120-ski-boots) Hidden $10.05 $825 82.09x 2026-11-08 17:56 UTC

[DESCENTE NIGEL MENS JACKET other](https://gambatracker.com/items/descente-nigel-mens-jacket) Hidden $10.05 $572 56.92x 2026-11-11 08:55 UTC

[DESCENTE NIGEL MENS JACKET other](https://gambatracker.com/items/descente-nigel-mens-jacket) Hidden $10.05 $572 56.92x 2026-11-08 18:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=downhill)

[Ski Boot Charm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ski-boot-charm) Hidden $10.05 $3.10 0.31x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC

[SEIRUS SNOWDANA other](https://gambatracker.com/items/seirus-snowdana) Hidden $10.05 $17.00 1.69x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC

[Ski Boot Charm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ski-boot-charm) Hidden $10.05 $3.10 0.31x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC

[I'd Rather Be Skiing Postcard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/id-rather-be-skiing-postcard) Hidden $10.05 $1.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC

[Ski Boot Charm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ski-boot-charm) Hidden $10.05 $3.10 0.31x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC

[Ski Boot Charm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ski-boot-charm) [Kris\_tins](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Kris_tins) $10.05 $3.10 0.31x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC

[Ski Pole Straps other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ski-pole-straps) Hidden $10.05 $4.00 0.40x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC

[I'd Rather Be Skiing Postcard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/id-rather-be-skiing-postcard) Hidden $10.05 $1.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC

[Hand Warmers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-warmers) Hidden $10.05 $5.00 0.50x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC

[Ski Aspen Postcard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ski-aspen-postcard) Hidden $10.05 $0.20 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.05 | 89.46% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $1,870 (186.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.46 on average: an expected loss of $10.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt