--- title: "First Serve case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "First Serve ($21.26) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 12 items with odds, observed 69.82% over 382 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/first-serve rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [First Serve](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/first-serve) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · First Serve A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/first-serve?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/first-serve?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/first-serve) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/first-serve?window=all) Price · $21.26 Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $19.02 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.82% · 382 openings, odds method Variance · 15.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 69.10% ±48.67 256 openings 30 days · 69.82% ±39.85 382 openings since tracking started · 69.82% ±39.85 382 openings -0.5% 99.3% 199.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/first-serve?window=24h) | 32 | 60.45% ±137.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/first-serve?window=7d) | 256 | 69.10% ±48.7 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/first-serve) | 382 | 69.82% ±39.8 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/first-serve?window=all) | 382 | 69.82% ±39.8 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 382 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Louis Vuitton Monogram Classic James Ping Pong Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-monogram-classic-james-ping-pong-set) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,240 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [JOOLA Inside - Professional MDF Indoor Table Tennis Table with Quick Clamp Ping Pong Net and Post Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/joola-inside-professional-mdf-indoor-table-tennis-table-with-quick-clamp-ping-pong-net-and-post-set) | 1 in 200 | $516 | 13.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [Supreme Butterfly Table Tennis Racket Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-butterfly-table-tennis-racket-set) | 1 in 100 | $190 | 10.0% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | | [Full Send Ping Pong Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/full-send-ping-pong-kit) | 1 in 133 | $165 | 6.5% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× | | [PRO SPIN All-in-One Ping Pong Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pro-spin-all-in-one-ping-pong-set) | 1 in 20 | $50.00 | 13.1% | 15 | 19.1 | 0.79× | | [Carbon Fiber Table Tennis Ball Catch Net other](https://gambatracker.com/items/carbon-fiber-table-tennis-ball-catch-net) | 1 in 20 | $40.00 | 10.5% | 16 | 19.1 | 0.84× | | [STIGA Phoenix Ping Pong Paddle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiga-phoenix-ping-pong-paddle) | 1 in 13 | $30.00 | 11.8% | 38 | 28.6 | 1.33× | | [Mini Tabletop Ping Pong Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mini-tabletop-ping-pong-game) | 1 in 13 | $27.00 | 10.9% | 30 | 29.4 | 1.02× | | [Score Counter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/score-counter) | 10.0% | $10.00 | 5.3% | 47 | 38.2 | 1.23× | | [PATIKIL Table Tennis Racket Grip Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patikil-table-tennis-racket-grip-tape) | 10.0% | $9.20 | 4.8% | 26 | 38.2 | 0.68× | | [Under Armour Men's Performance Headband other](https://gambatracker.com/items/under-armour-mens-performance-headband) | 15.0% | $5.99 | 4.7% | 63 | 57.3 | 1.10× | | [Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) | 37.5% | $0.10 | 0.2% | 140 | 143.3 | 0.98× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=first-serve) [Under Armour Men's Performance Headband other](https://gambatracker.com/items/under-armour-mens-performance-headband) Hidden $21.26 $5.99 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:21 UTC [STIGA Phoenix Ping Pong Paddle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiga-phoenix-ping-pong-paddle) Hidden $21.26 $30.00 1.41x 2026-11-11 08:21 UTC [Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) Hidden $21.26 $0.10 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:21 UTC [Under Armour Men's Performance Headband other](https://gambatracker.com/items/under-armour-mens-performance-headband) Hidden $21.26 $5.99 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:21 UTC [Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) Hidden $21.26 $0.10 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:21 UTC [PATIKIL Table Tennis Racket Grip Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patikil-table-tennis-racket-grip-tape) [Vaniooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Vaniooo) $21.26 $9.20 0.43x 2026-11-11 08:21 UTC [Under Armour Men's Performance Headband other](https://gambatracker.com/items/under-armour-mens-performance-headband) Hidden $21.26 $5.99 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) Hidden $21.26 $0.10 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [Under Armour Men's Performance Headband other](https://gambatracker.com/items/under-armour-mens-performance-headband) Hidden $21.26 $5.99 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [Under Armour Men's Performance Headband other](https://gambatracker.com/items/under-armour-mens-performance-headband) Hidden $21.26 $5.99 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.26 | 89.48% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt