---
title: "F.O.G. case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "F.O.G. ($66.31) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 20 items with odds, observed 76.56% over 77 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/fog
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [F.O.G.](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/fog)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · F.O.G.

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/fog?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/fog?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/fog) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/fog?window=all)

Price · $66.31

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $59.35 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.56% · 77 openings, odds method

Variance · 19.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 59 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 15 openings · below min

7 days · 47 openings · below min

30 days · 77 openings · below min

since tracking started · 77 openings · below min

-0.5% 161.0% 322.5%

**Small sample.** 77 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/fog?window=24h) | 15 | 100.63% ±221.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/fog?window=7d) | 47 | 61.89% ±124.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/fog) | 77 | 76.56% ±97.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/fog?window=all) | 77 | 76.56% ±97.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Fear of God x Saint Mxxxxxx Saint of God Varsity Jacket EU 2 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-x-saint-mxxxxxx-saint-of-god-varsity-jacket-eu-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,400 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Fear of God Wool High Neck Track Jacket Navy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-wool-high-neck-track-jacket-navy) | 1 in 500 | $3,360 | 11.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Fear of God Nylon Cargo Snap Pants US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-nylon-cargo-snap-pants-us-m) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,192 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Fear of God Drawstring Wide Leg Pants Dusty Beige US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-drawstring-wide-leg-pants-dusty-beige-us-m) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,870 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Fear of God Cargo Shorts US S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-cargo-shorts-us-s) | 1 in 250 | $1,280 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Fear of God Sinners T-shirt Black US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-sinners-t-shirt-black-us-m) | 1 in 250 | $1,033 | 7.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Fear of God Essentials Falcons Crewneck US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-falcons-crewneck-us-m) | 1 in 250 | $935 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Fear of God Essentials Knit Pullover Hoodie (SS21) US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-knit-pullover-hoodie-ss21-us-m) | 1 in 133 | $508 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Fear of God Essentials 1977 Shorts US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-1977-shorts-us-l) | 1 in 133 | $493 | 6.2% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [Fear of God Essentials New Era 59Fifty 2020 World Series Patch Fitted Hat (FW21) Dark Royal other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-new-era-59fifty-2020-world-series-patch-fitted-hat-fw21-dark-royal) | 1 in 133 | $475 | 6.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Fear of God Essentials Pullover Hoodie Applique Logo Gray Flannel/Charcoal US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-pullover-hoodie-applique-logo-gray-flannel-charcoal-us-m) | 1 in 100 | $439 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Fear of God Essentials Sweatshort Light Heather Oatmeal US S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-sweatshort-light-heather-oatmeal-us-s) | 1 in 100 | $437 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Fear Of God The California 2.0 US W 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-the-california-2-0-us-w-10) | 1 in 100 | $422 | 7.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Nike Air Fear of God 1 Triple Black US W 8.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-fear-of-god-1-triple-black-us-w-8-5) | 1 in 100 | $406 | 6.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Supreme Burberry Box Logo Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-burberry-box-logo-sticker) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 | 0.4% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.56× |
| [Lyrical Lemonade Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lyrical-lemonade-sticker) | 10.0% | $2.00 | 0.3% | 13 | 7.7 | 1.69× |
| [Nike Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sticker) | 10.0% | $1.99 | 0.3% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| [Thrasher Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/thrasher-sticker) | 15.0% | $1.20 | 0.3% | 8 | 11.5 | 0.69× |
| [USA Flag Car Decal Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/usa-flag-car-decal-sticker) | 20.0% | $1.00 | 0.3% | 11 | 15.4 | 0.71× |
| [Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) | 32.0% | $0.10 | 0.1% | 25 | 24.7 | 1.01× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Fear of God Sinners T-shirt Black US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-sinners-t-shirt-black-us-m) Hidden $66.31 $1,033 15.58x 2026-11-03 06:46 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=fog)

[Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) Hidden $66.31 $0.10 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC

[Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) Hidden $66.31 $0.10 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC

[USA Flag Car Decal Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/usa-flag-car-decal-sticker) Hidden $66.31 $1.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC

[Lyrical Lemonade Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lyrical-lemonade-sticker) Hidden $66.31 $2.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC

[Nike Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sticker) Hidden $66.31 $1.99 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC

[Lyrical Lemonade Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lyrical-lemonade-sticker) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $66.31 $2.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC

[Nike Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sticker) Hidden $66.31 $1.99 0.03x 2026-11-10 19:00 UTC

[Fear of God Essentials 1977 Shorts US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-1977-shorts-us-l) Hidden $66.31 $493 7.44x 2026-11-10 19:00 UTC

[Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) Hidden $66.31 $0.10 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:00 UTC

[Kith Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-sticker) Hidden $66.31 $0.10 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $66.31 | 89.50% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $1,033 (15.58x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt