--- title: "Ford Tough case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ford Tough ($5,199.98) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 156.64% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ford-tough rendered: 2026-11-12T00:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Ford Tough](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ford-tough) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Ford Tough A box on Cases.gg (Cars), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ford-tough?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ford-tough?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ford-tough) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ford-tough?window=all) Price · $5,199.98 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $4,653.98 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 156.64% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 164.3% 329.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ford-tough?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ford-tough?window=7d) | 6 | 156.64% ±171.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ford-tough) | 6 | 156.64% ±171.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ford-tough?window=all) | 6 | 156.64% ±171.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E GT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-mustang-mach-e-gt) | 1 in 200 | $68.5K | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2024 Ford Mustang GT Premium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-mustang-gt-premium) | 1 in 200 | $63.8K | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2024 Ford Bronco Big Bend other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-bronco-big-bend) | 1 in 200 | $55K | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2024 Ford F-150 STX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-f-150-stx) | 1 in 200 | $50.6K | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2024 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bend other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-bronco-sport-big-bend) | 1 in 100 | $38.5K | 8.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [2024 Ford Escape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-escape) | 1 in 100 | $35.2K | 7.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2024 Ford Maverick XL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-maverick-xl) | 1 in 50 | $31.9K | 13.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2019 Ford Fiesta other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2019-ford-fiesta) | 1 in 50 | $19.8K | 8.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2018 Ford Flex SE other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2018-ford-flex-se) | 1 in 50 | $16.5K | 7.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2017 Ford Focus SE other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2017-ford-focus-se) | 1 in 33 | $13.2K | 8.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Ford Fusion other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-fusion) | 1 in 25 | $10K | 8.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [2014 Ford Focus Electric other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2014-ford-focus-electric) | 1 in 17 | $8,470 | 10.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Ford Mustang Blue Neon Clock other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-mustang-blue-neon-clock) | 15.0% | $228 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Ford Logo Smart Backpack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-logo-smart-backpack) | 15.0% | $88.00 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Ford Mustang Fast Lanes Sport Knockaround Sunglasses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-mustang-fast-lanes-sport-knockaround-sunglasses) | 17.0% | $44.00 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Ford Trucks F-150 Flag Patch Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-trucks-f-150-flag-patch-hat) | 10.0% | $28.00 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Ford Mustang Car Mat Coaster Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-mustang-car-mat-coaster-set) | 10.0% | $15.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Ford Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-keychain) | 10.0% | $1.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [2024 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bend other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-bronco-sport-big-bend) Hidden $5,200 $38.5K 7.40x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC [Ford Fusion other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-fusion) Hidden $5,200 $10K 1.92x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=ford-tough) [2024 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bend other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-bronco-sport-big-bend) Hidden $5,200 $38.5K 7.40x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC [Ford Trucks F-150 Flag Patch Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-trucks-f-150-flag-patch-hat) Hidden $5,200 $28.00 0.01x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC [Ford Logo Smart Backpack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-logo-smart-backpack) Hidden $5,200 $88.00 0.02x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC [Ford Trucks F-150 Flag Patch Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-trucks-f-150-flag-patch-hat) Hidden $5,200 $28.00 0.01x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC [Ford Fusion other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-fusion) Hidden $5,200 $10K 1.92x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC [Ford Mustang Blue Neon Clock other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-mustang-blue-neon-clock) [Jaydendown](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Jaydendown) $5,200 $228 0.04x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5,200 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $38.5K (7.40x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt