--- title: "Free Throw case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Free Throw ($528.24) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 61.88% over 126 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/free-throw rendered: 2026-11-12T04:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Free Throw](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/free-throw) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Free Throw A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/free-throw?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/free-throw?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/free-throw) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/free-throw?window=all) Price · $528.24 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $472.77 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 61.88% · 126 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 86 openings · below min 30 days · 61.88% ±35.21 126 openings since tracking started · 61.88% ±35.21 126 openings 20.0% 63.2% 106.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/free-throw?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/free-throw?window=7d) | 86 | 63.45% ±42.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/free-throw) | 126 | 61.88% ±35.2 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/free-throw?window=all) | 126 | 61.88% ±35.2 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Louis Vuitton x NBA Ball in Basket Ball Grain Leather Black/White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-nba-ball-in-basket-ball-grain-leather-black-white) | 1 in 200 | $10.3K | 10.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Louis Vuitton x NBA Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-x-nba-basketball) | 1 in 100 | $8,160 | 17.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Travis Scott x Nike Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-x-nike-basketball) | 1 in 80 | $1,560 | 4.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Vlone x Dennis Rodman Basketball Green Cheetah other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vlone-x-dennis-rodman-basketball-green-cheetah) | 1 in 33 | $653 | 4.1% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× | | [Wilson x OFF-WHITE Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilson-x-off-white-basketball) | 1 in 20 | $616 | 6.5% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× | | [Uncut Gems Winning Bet Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/uncut-gems-winning-bet-basketball) | 1 in 20 | $565 | 6.0% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× | | [OVO x Wilson Basketball Black/Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ovo-x-wilson-basketball-black-gold) | 1 in 13 | $488 | 7.7% | 4 | 9.4 | 0.42× | | [OVO x Wilson Mini Basketball Hoop Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ovo-x-wilson-mini-basketball-hoop-set) | 10.0% | $433 | 9.2% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× | | [Diamond Supply Co. Spalding Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-supply-co-spalding-basketball) | 20.0% | $347 | 14.7% | 23 | 25.2 | 0.91× | | [Chinatown Market x Puma Smiley Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chinatown-market-x-puma-smiley-basketball) | 46.8% | $197 | 19.5% | 63 | 58.9 | 1.07× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Vlone x Dennis Rodman Basketball Green Cheetah other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vlone-x-dennis-rodman-basketball-green-cheetah) Hidden $528 $653 1.24x 2026-11-07 04:33 UTC [Vlone x Dennis Rodman Basketball Green Cheetah other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vlone-x-dennis-rodman-basketball-green-cheetah) Hidden $528 $653 1.24x 2026-11-07 04:32 UTC [Vlone x Dennis Rodman Basketball Green Cheetah other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vlone-x-dennis-rodman-basketball-green-cheetah) Hidden $528 $653 1.24x 2026-11-07 04:32 UTC [Vlone x Dennis Rodman Basketball Green Cheetah other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vlone-x-dennis-rodman-basketball-green-cheetah) Hidden $528 $653 1.24x 2026-11-03 02:34 UTC [Wilson x OFF-WHITE Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilson-x-off-white-basketball) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $528 $616 1.17x 2026-11-10 08:35 UTC [Wilson x OFF-WHITE Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilson-x-off-white-basketball) Hidden $528 $616 1.17x 2026-11-07 04:32 UTC [Wilson x OFF-WHITE Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilson-x-off-white-basketball) Hidden $528 $616 1.17x 2026-11-07 04:32 UTC [Wilson x OFF-WHITE Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilson-x-off-white-basketball) [GetDGN.com/CODE: DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/GetDGN.com%2FCODE%3A%20DGN) $528 $616 1.17x 2026-11-07 04:31 UTC [Wilson x OFF-WHITE Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilson-x-off-white-basketball) Hidden $528 $616 1.17x 2026-11-07 04:31 UTC [Wilson x OFF-WHITE Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilson-x-off-white-basketball) Hidden $528 $616 1.17x 2026-11-07 04:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=free-throw) [Chinatown Market x Puma Smiley Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chinatown-market-x-puma-smiley-basketball) Hidden $528 $197 0.37x 2026-11-10 08:35 UTC [Diamond Supply Co. Spalding Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-supply-co-spalding-basketball) Hidden $528 $347 0.66x 2026-11-10 08:35 UTC [Chinatown Market x Puma Smiley Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chinatown-market-x-puma-smiley-basketball) Hidden $528 $197 0.37x 2026-11-10 08:35 UTC [Chinatown Market x Puma Smiley Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chinatown-market-x-puma-smiley-basketball) Hidden $528 $197 0.37x 2026-11-10 08:35 UTC [Chinatown Market x Puma Smiley Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chinatown-market-x-puma-smiley-basketball) Hidden $528 $197 0.37x 2026-11-10 08:35 UTC [Wilson x OFF-WHITE Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilson-x-off-white-basketball) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $528 $616 1.17x 2026-11-10 08:35 UTC [Chinatown Market x Puma Smiley Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chinatown-market-x-puma-smiley-basketball) Hidden $528 $197 0.37x 2026-11-07 04:33 UTC [Diamond Supply Co. Spalding Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-supply-co-spalding-basketball) Hidden $528 $347 0.66x 2026-11-07 04:33 UTC [Diamond Supply Co. Spalding Basketball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diamond-supply-co-spalding-basketball) Hidden $528 $347 0.66x 2026-11-07 04:33 UTC [OVO x Wilson Mini Basketball Hoop Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ovo-x-wilson-mini-basketball-hoop-set) [GetDGN.com/CODE: DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/GetDGN.com%2FCODE%3A%20DGN) $528 $433 0.82x 2026-11-07 04:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $528 | 89.50% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $653 (1.24x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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