---
title: "Freshman Year case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Freshman Year ($29.00) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 79.45% over 142 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/freshman-year
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Freshman Year](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/freshman-year)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Freshman Year

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/freshman-year?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/freshman-year?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/freshman-year) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/freshman-year?window=all)

Price · $29.00

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $25.95 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.45% · 142 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 18 openings · below min

7 days · 79.45% ±45.02 142 openings

30 days · 79.45% ±45.02 142 openings

since tracking started · 79.45% ±45.02 142 openings

-0.5% 104.5% 209.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/freshman-year?window=24h) | 18 | 82.66% ±126.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/freshman-year?window=7d) | 142 | 79.45% ±45.0 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/freshman-year) | 142 | 79.45% ±45.0 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/freshman-year?window=all) | 142 | 79.45% ±45.0 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 142 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Vantum Gaming Chair other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vantum-gaming-chair) | 1 in 400 | $1,300 | 12.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Novogratz Brittany Sofa Futon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/novogratz-brittany-sofa-futon) | 1 in 400 | $372 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Amazon Fire TV 32" 2-Series HD smart TV other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-fire-tv-32-2-series-hd-smart-tv) | 1 in 100 | $250 | 9.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [HP Stream 14-inch Laptop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hp-stream-14-inch-laptop) | 1 in 200 | $245 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Igloo 3.2 Cu.Ft. Single Door Compact Refrigerator with Freezer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/igloo-3-2-cu-ft-single-door-compact-refrigerator-with-freezer) | 1 in 100 | $215 | 8.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [55-Inch Large Computer Desk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/55-inch-large-computer-desk) | 1 in 100 | $175 | 6.7% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.41× |
| [SHARP Oven Countertop Microwave, 0.7 CuFt, Stainless Steel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sharp-oven-countertop-microwave-0-7-cuft-stainless-steel) | 1 in 100 | $145 | 5.6% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.11× |
| [Amazon Echo Spot (2024 release), Smart alarm clock other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-echo-spot-2024-release-smart-alarm-clock) | 1 in 50 | $98.00 | 7.6% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× |
| [DoorDash Gift Card - $50 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/doordash-gift-card-50) | 1 in 33 | $50.00 | 5.8% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.41× |
| [MATEIN Travel Laptop Backpack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/matein-travel-laptop-backpack) | 1 in 20 | $40.00 | 7.7% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× |
| [CTRL Peanut Butter Pieces - Box of 12 Cookies other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ctrl-peanut-butter-pieces-box-of-12-cookies) | 1 in 20 | $37.39 | 7.2% | 9 | 7.1 | 1.27× |
| [Taco Bell Gift Card - $25 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/taco-bell-gift-card-25) | 1 in 20 | $25.00 | 4.8% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× |
| [Mead Composition Notebooks, 3 Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mead-composition-notebooks-3-pack) | 1 in 20 | $20.00 | 3.9% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× |
| [Laundry Basket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/laundry-basket) | 1 in 13 | $14.00 | 4.0% | 7 | 10.7 | 0.66× |
| [Sparkling Ice Blue Variety Pack, Zero Sugar Sparkling Water - 12 Count other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sparkling-ice-blue-variety-pack-zero-sugar-sparkling-water-12-count) | 1 in 13 | $10.43 | 3.0% | 5 | 10.7 | 0.47× |
| [Maruchan Ramen Chicken, 24 Count other](https://gambatracker.com/items/maruchan-ramen-chicken-24-count) | 10.0% | $7.00 | 2.7% | 19 | 14.2 | 1.34× |
| [Sharpie S-Gel, Gel Pens, Black, 4 Count other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sharpie-s-gel-gel-pens-black-4-count) | 10.0% | $5.00 | 1.9% | 14 | 14.2 | 0.99× |
| [Pencil other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pencil) | 35.0% | $0.25 | 0.3% | 53 | 49.7 | 1.07× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=freshman-year)

[Sparkling Ice Blue Variety Pack, Zero Sugar Sparkling Water - 12 Count other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sparkling-ice-blue-variety-pack-zero-sugar-sparkling-water-12-count) Hidden $29.00 $10.43 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[CTRL Peanut Butter Pieces - Box of 12 Cookies other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ctrl-peanut-butter-pieces-box-of-12-cookies) Hidden $29.00 $37.39 1.29x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[Sparkling Ice Blue Variety Pack, Zero Sugar Sparkling Water - 12 Count other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sparkling-ice-blue-variety-pack-zero-sugar-sparkling-water-12-count) Hidden $29.00 $10.43 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[Pencil other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pencil) Hidden $29.00 $0.25 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[DoorDash Gift Card - $50 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/doordash-gift-card-50) Hidden $29.00 $50.00 1.72x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[Sparkling Ice Blue Variety Pack, Zero Sugar Sparkling Water - 12 Count other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sparkling-ice-blue-variety-pack-zero-sugar-sparkling-water-12-count) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $29.00 $10.43 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[Mead Composition Notebooks, 3 Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mead-composition-notebooks-3-pack) Hidden $29.00 $20.00 0.69x 2026-11-11 00:39 UTC

[DoorDash Gift Card - $50 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/doordash-gift-card-50) Hidden $29.00 $50.00 1.72x 2026-11-11 00:39 UTC

[CTRL Peanut Butter Pieces - Box of 12 Cookies other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ctrl-peanut-butter-pieces-box-of-12-cookies) Hidden $29.00 $37.39 1.29x 2026-11-11 00:39 UTC

[Sharpie S-Gel, Gel Pens, Black, 4 Count other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sharpie-s-gel-gel-pens-black-4-count) Hidden $29.00 $5.00 0.17x 2026-11-11 00:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.00 | 89.50% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt